A new IBD/TIPP poll finds Hillary Clinton’s support among Democrats nationally has taken a serious tumble, falling eight points to 43% while Bernie Sanders rose six points to 39%.
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One Chart That Should Worry Hillary Clinton
Philip Bump: “So what happened to Clinton? Well, part of it is that her favorability slipped. Among all voters, she dropped seven points in the head-to-head matchup (Sanders gained nine), but the percentage of people viewing her favorably fell from 81 to 74.”
Nearly 70% of Ads Coming from Outside Groups
NBC News: “Out of the approximately $150 million spent on advertisements in the 2016 presidential race, nearly 70% of it has come from outside groups… But there is a significant difference by party: 83% of the Republican ad dollars, especially in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, have come from Super PACs and other outside groups, versus just a mere 2% from Democrats.”
Bevin Will Take Down Obamacare Exchange
“Following through on a campaign pledge,” Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) “has notified federal authorities he plans to dismantle kynect, Kentucky’s health insurance exchange created under the Affordable Care Act,” the Louisville Courier-Journal reports.
Sanders Surging In Iowa
A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Sen. Bernie Sanders now leading Hillary Clinton, 49% to 44%.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “After three months of Secretary Hillary Clinton holding an average 10-point lead among Iowa Democrats, the playing field has changed. Sen. Sanders’ surge seems based on the perception by Iowa Democrats that he is a better fit for Iowans. They see him, by solid double digit margins as more sharing their values, more honest and trustworthy and viewed more favorably overall than is Secretary Clinton.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Clinton now leads Sanders by just six points, 46% to 40%. Clinton held an 18-point lead last month.
Trump Leads in Iowa
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading with 28%, followed by Ted Cruz at 26%, Marco Rubio at 13%, Ben Carson at 8% and Jeb Bush at 6%.
Key finding: “The poll finds that the ‘birther issue’ has the potential to really hurt Ted Cruz. Only 32% of Iowa Republicans think someone born in another country should be allowed to serve as President, to 47% who think such a person shouldn’t be allowed to serve as President.”
MoveOn Endorses Bernie Sanders
Sen. Bernie Sanders won the endorsement of the liberal advocacy group MoveOn, Politico reports.
“The Vermont senator prevailed in online balloting that ran from last Thursday through Sunday night, winning 78.6 percent of the vote out of 340,665 ballots cast — both records in terms of most votes cast and largest margin of victory. Just 14.6 percent voted for Hillary Clinton, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley earned 0.9 percent, with 5.9 percent of ballots in favor of not endorsing a particular candidate this time.”
Trump Surges in Prediction Markets
PredictWise now shows Donald Trump within striking distance of Marco Rubio as the candidate most likely to win the Republican presidential nomination.
Sanders Opens Up Big Lead in New Hampshire
A new Monmouth University poll in New Hampshire shows Bernie Sanders has opened up a 14 point lead over Hillary Clinton, 53% to 39%.
The Runaway Campaign
Just out for Kindle: The Runaway Campaign: A Year Inside the Republican Race for President.
Bill Would Make It a Crime to Videotape Police
Arizona state Sen. John Kavanagh (R) introduced a bill “which would make it a crime for someone within 20 feet of an officer to knowingly take video of any law enforcement activity without the officer’s permission,” the Arizona Republic reports.
“A Texas lawmaker unsuccessfully introduced similar legislation earlier this year.”
Cruz Begins Testing Lines of Attack on Trump
“Although Ted Cruz has insisted he will not personally attack Donald Trump as the race for the Republican nomination heats up, supporters of the Texas senator appear to be weighing how best to target Trump in Iowa, where Cruz holds a narrow lead,” according to Real Clear Politics.
“A message-testing phone call in Iowa on Monday floated seven distinct lines of attack against the national frontrunner, asking whether each one would make the listener more or less likely to support him. One potential attack noted Trump’s recent remark to a Christian audience in Iowa that he has ‘never asked God for forgiveness.’ Another depicted Trump as ‘a New York liberal pretending to have conservative values.'”
“Two potential attacks targeted the billionaire businessman’s loyalty to the GOP — one noting that he had changed his party ID, the other mentioning his Reform Party candidacy for president in 1999/2000 and his prior financial support for Democrats. Three other attacks cited Trump’s stances on eminent domain, abortion and single-payer health care, respectively.”
It’s a Long Slog Until the Nomination
Charlie Cook: “It is worth remembering that 94 percent of the 2,472 Republican convention delegates are not from the February states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada; these delegates are picked on or after March 1, and the winner-take-all states don’t come online until Florida and Ohio on March 15. Fifty-eight percent of delegates are picked in March, 16 percent in April, and 8 percent in May, with the final 12 percent in early June.”
The Decline of the Establishment
Yuval Levin analyzed the stump speeches of four GOP candidates: Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.
“The most striking thing that emerges from listening to these speeches one after another is that the theme of this election year so far for Republicans is the question of the establishment and the public. That’s not surprising. But how candidates are taking up the question did surprise me. The natural way to think about the subject — a kind of generic populist template — is that our governing elite in general and the Republican establishment in particular are awfully strong and are oppressing the public in some way.”
“But that’s not really how most Republican contenders are talking about the issue. More often, at least implicitly, their subject is not the strength but the weakness of the establishment, even if they don’t quite put it that way. All of them describe the hollowing out and decay of America’s elite, its core institutions, and its political leadership. And some of the key differences between the candidates become a little clearer when we see them as differences in how they would approach that serious problem.”
Running to Obama’s Left
Rick Klein: “Tuesday night marks an opportunity for President Obama to focus on what he’s leaving behind. And the Democratic race to follow him in office isn’t disappointing in terms of honoring his legacy – and reminding his party of what he’s been about. An insurgent candidate is again challenging Hillary Clinton and the establishment, drawing crowds and donors and polling numbers to a big-change message. All three Democratic presidential candidates are running to the president’s left to a great extent, challenging in what’s now unison, for example, his immigration enforcement policies as inhumane. Clinton and Bernie Sanders, the frontrunners, are hitting each other at different angles, but virtually all from the left.”
“At a Fusion forum in Iowa last night and beyond, Clinton is questioning Sanders’ record on gun control, while Sanders is undermining Clinton’s commitment to paid family leave. There won’t be another Obama, not in this election cycle. But his lessons and his legacy have been incorporated into an early but already wild campaign to replace him in office.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Talk to me if he wins. Then we’ll have a conversation about how responsible I am for him.”
— President Obama, in an interview on the Today Show, on whether he is responsible for the rise of Donald Trump.
Obama’s First Campaign Speech of the Year
First Read: “Not only is this President Obama’s final State of the Union address; also think of it as his first campaign speech of 2016 — and certainly not the last one. Yes, Obama will talk policy, list his achievements, and discuss what still needs to be done. But tonight’s 9:00 pm ET speech from Capitol Hill will give him the opportunity to lay down a political marker on the 2016 contest.”
“The challenge for Obama in 2016 is that he and his party have fared much better when he’s on the ballot (see 2008, 2012) than when he’s not (2010, 2014). Now one explanation why has been turnout; Obama’s Democratic coalition has shown up in presidential contests and not in midterms. But as Obama plays a supporting role in 2016, it’s worth noting that the president’s speech tonight probably won’t cause heartburn for, say, Hillary Clinton — since they’re pretty much on the same page when it comes to the issues.”
Wonk Wire: Does Obama have the right to brag tonight?
Trump Quote of the Day
“If I win and she wins, it is going to be the largest voter turnout in the history of the country, and that’s a good thing.”
— Donald Trump, in an interview on the Tonight Show.
