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Does GOP Establishment Have an Opening?

January 18, 2016 at 3:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

First Read: “The Trump vs. Cruz battle is getting uglier and uglier… If this continues over the next two weeks, then the GOP establishment has the opening it’s been waiting for.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

January 18, 2016 at 3:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“I think Ted once again is trying to be Mr. Ivy League cute. He’s Harvard and Princeton, he’s federal court clerkships, he’s government jobs, and somehow he’s an outsider? If you took his name off and you put that résumé down, that would look like the consummate Washington insider.”

— Gov. Chris Christie, blasting Sen. Ted Cruz in an interview with Time.

Democratic Debate Was Most Watched of Cycle

January 18, 2016 at 2:16 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Last night’s Democratic presidential debate was seen by 12.5 million viewers across all platforms, making it the most-watched broadcast network Democratic debate of the 2016 campaign so far and the third-highest rated Democratic debate in history, according to a NBC News press release.


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Looking for Simple Answers to Complex Questions

January 18, 2016 at 2:09 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Gerald Seib: “Two debates held in recent days, one among Republicans and the other among Democrats, revealed a stark reality of the 2016 presidential campaign: We are in a time of complicated questions in search of simple answers.”

“That is a dynamic that works to the advantage of candidates with clear and simple philosophies (think Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders) and to the disadvantage of candidates more in the center, offering nuanced solutions rather than quick fixes (think Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush).”

“This trend is fueled by the fact that each party’s base has moved toward the ideological wings of the left and right, where the world looks black and white, not gray.”

Membership Update

January 18, 2016 at 1:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

One more note to thank everyone who has joined as a member! This is going to be an exciting election year and Political Wire will be the best place to follow all the action. Let me know what you would like to see in member-exclusive posts.

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Special offer: Anyone who signs up for an annual membership today will also receive a signed copy of my book, You Won, Now What?

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‘Will Hillary Clinton Get Prosecuted?’

January 18, 2016 at 7:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard 108 Comments

The Hill: “Some of the top trending questions on Google during Sunday’s Democratic presidential debate related to Hillary Clinton’s legal troubles… Two of the top five questions relating to Clinton implicitly concern the FBI investigation into the private email server she used as secretary of State.”

Clinton Now Running on Obama’s Legacy

January 18, 2016 at 7:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

“Hillary Clinton may have been flanked by Martin O’Malley and Senator Bernie Sanders at the presidential primary debate on Sunday night in South Carolina, but she wanted voters to see her as shoulder-to-shoulder with another Democrat: the one living in the White House,” the New York Times reports.

“Seeking to stabilize her 2016 campaign in the state where her 2008 contest with Barack Obama took its nastiest turn, Mrs. Clinton linked herself to the president again and again. And again.”

Quote of the Day

January 18, 2016 at 7:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

“The real issue is that Congress is owned by big money.”

— Sen. Bernie Sanders, quoted by NBC News, during last night’s Democratic debate.

Reaction to the Democratic Presidential Debate

January 17, 2016 at 10:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 236 Comments

Tonight’s Democratic presidential debate was often more about Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton.

Clinton obliterated Sanders on gun control and though she was less effective trying to suggest Sanders would weaken the Affordable Care Act, she kept him on the defensive all night. She was relentless. If her objective was to raise questions about Sanders and his record, she was very successful.

Sanders does angry and indignant almost as well as Donald Trump. But his anger was too often directed towards Clinton. Democrats aren’t, for the most part, angry with Clinton. They’re angry with Republicans and with a rigged economic and campaign finance system that works against the majority of citizens.

Martin O’Malley was, once again, a non-factor in this debate. In another cycle he might make an attractive candidate. But there’s no real space for his candidacy this year. Clinton and Sanders have staked out the main battle lines and have relegated O’Malley to the sidelines.

More broadly, Clinton spent the entire night trying to convince Democrats she was the heir to President Obama’s legacy. She made clear she is running for Obama’s third term. It’s a smart strategy because it serves the double-purpose of implying that Sanders is less friendly to Obama.

Clinton was effective, presidential and the clear winner of the debate.

Another Poll Gives Clinton Big National Lead

January 17, 2016 at 8:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

A new Economist/YouGov survey shows Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 25 points, 58% to 33%, an improvement on the 14-point gap that separated the two Democrats in the second half of December.

The survey mirrors the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released earlier today.

Quote of the Day

January 17, 2016 at 8:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“I just don’t think I could take another day asking another donor for another dollar.”

— Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), quoted by The Hill, on why he’s not running for re-election.

Trump Blames Cruz for ‘Disaster’ Chief Justice

January 17, 2016 at 8:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Donald Trump told ABC News that Supreme Court Justice John Roberts was an “absolute disaster” and he blames Ted Cruz.

Said Trump: “Cruz fought like hell to get Justice Roberts in there. Justice Roberts turned out to be an absolute disaster, he turned out to be an absolute disaster because he gave us Obamacare…. Justice Roberts could’ve killed Obamacare and should’ve, based on everything — should’ve killed it twice. Ted Cruz is the one that was promoting him.”

Why Tonight’s Democratic Debate Is Important

January 17, 2016 at 5:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

“Three Democratic presidential candidates will meet Sunday night in their fourth debate amid a tightening and increasingly contentious race between former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders,” the Washington Post reports.

“Under the new dynamic, Clinton heads into the debate facing heavy pressure to regain her footing, with some allies growing nervous about a repeat of 2008, when now-President Obama surged ahead of her. Sanders is also under pressure to offer more specifics on some of his policy proposals, as the self-described democratic socialist has come under heavier scrutiny.”

Politico: Everything you need to know about the Democratic debate

NBC News is broadcasting the debate at 9 p.m. ET. It will also be broadcast via YouTube.

Trump Says Cruz Is a ‘Nasty Guy’

January 17, 2016 at 5:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 34 Comments

Donald Trump went after Ted Cruz’s likability, calling the Texas senator a “nasty guy,” Politico reports.

Said Trump: “Nobody likes him, nobody in Congress likes him, nobody likes him anywhere once they get to know him.”

Trump also said he’ll consider filing his own lawsuit challenging Cruz’s eligibility to be president based on his birth: “I’d like to talk to Ted about it, see how he’d feel about it — ’cause you know, when I file suits, I file real suits.”

NBC News: “This is only good news for Marco Rubio and the other establishment types. “

Forecast Predicts Cruz and Clinton Will Prevail in Iowa

January 17, 2016 at 5:43 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

A new FiveThirtyEight forecast finds Ted Cruz has a 51% chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. Donald Trump has a 29% chance of winning.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is believed to have an all-but-certain victory over Bernie Sanders.

DNC Chief Defends Debate Schedule

January 17, 2016 at 4:55 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz said she scheduled primary debates with the goal of maximizing media attention for the party’s presidential candidates, The Hill reports.

Said Wasserman Schultz: “I did my best to make sure, along with my staff and along with our debate partners, to come up with a schedule that we felt was going… to maximize the opportunity for voters to see our candidates.”

Will a Close Race Bring Out the Best In Clinton?

January 17, 2016 at 4:49 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 1 Comment

First Read: “NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) remarked last summer that Clinton is a subpar candidate when she’s the overwhelming frontrunner, but that she’s much, much better when her back is against the wall. We’ll see if that pattern continues with a closer-than-expected race in all-important Iowa.”

The One Trait Shared by Trump Supporters

January 17, 2016 at 4:44 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

Matthew MacWilliams: “I’ve found a single statistically significant variable predicts whether a voter supports Trump—and it’s not race, income or education levels: It’s authoritarianism.”

“That’s right, Trump’s electoral strength—and his staying power—have been buoyed, above all, by Americans with authoritarian inclinations. And because of the prevalence of authoritarians in the American electorate, among Democrats as well as Republicans, it’s very possible that Trump’s fan base will continue to grow.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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