Donald Trump said that it would be hasty to judge Vladimir Putin in the face of a British public inquiry’s allegation that the Russian president “probably approved” of a 2006 killing on British soil, Business Insider reports.
Said Trump: “Have they found him guilty? I don’t think they’ve found him guilty. They say a lot of things about me that are untrue, too.”
He added: “If he did it, fine. But I don’t know that he did it.”
First Read: “These are words that most political observers, including us, didn’t think we’d ever write six months ago: Less than a week before Iowa and two weeks before New Hampshire, Donald Trump is in clear control of the GOP presidential contest. If you don’t want to take our word for it, just look at the polling out of Iowa, where Trump has topped Ted Cruz in five out of the last six polls, including today’s new Quinnipiac survey. Look at the situation in New Hampshire, where he’s leading the pack by double digits. And Trump is lapping the GOP field in national polls. Even numbers-cruncher Nate Silver, who had been skeptical about Trump’s chances, now gives the real-estate mogul better than a 50% chance of winning Iowa.”
“Now it’s important to remember: Not a single vote has been cast yet, and a political cycle that has thrown us surprise after surprise could have another in store for us.”
One of the militants involved in the standoff at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon has challenged “younger brother” Gov. Chris Christie to 10 sumo rounds, the Portland Oregonian reports.
If Christie can win one round, the militants will end their standoff.
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“He looks like a jerk.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by Politico, on rival Ted Cruz.
Slate: “Everyone makes mistakes—even Nate Silver. It’s also entirely possible that the Trump collapse is still to come and that as soon as we see the actual voting process play out, the hollowness of his popularity will reveal itself. Still, Silver is right that his assumptions are worth revisiting. Maybe the Trump phenomenon is so unprecedented that no statistical model could have foreseen it. Or maybe it took a candidate as unique as Donald Trump to reveal the flaws and limitations of Silver’s prediction machine.”
“For months, the tumultuous Republican presidential primary has masked a brewing debate among Democrats about their own party’s future,” the AP reports.
“Now, with Sen. Bernie Sanders chipping away at Hillary Clinton’s grip on the Democratic nomination, the differences are spilling out into the open as the candidates campaign across snow-covered Iowa.”
“At its core, the divide between Clinton and Sanders is about just how much to change current economic, health care and education systems, and what the federal government’s role in those areas should be. The candidates often share the same goals, but have different policy prescriptions and preferred tactics for achieving them.”
Donald Trump told ABC News that Sen. Ted Cruz is is “just saying lie after lie” about his record.
Said Trump: “He’s so nervous. He’s such a mess.”
“For all its twists, turns and unprecedented developments of the 2016 campaign, one political reality remains in place: The demographic makeup of the Republican Party hasn’t changed much over the past 15 years. What has changed is the mood of the GOP electorate,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Republican Party has been dominated by white, older conservative voters, as it was a generation ago. But, with much of the country becoming more diverse, younger and more liberal, many GOP voters are seething with frustration and anger.”
A great interactive feature: How Trump Happened
Sen. Ted Cruz said that Donald Trump “could be unstoppable” if he wins the Iowa caucus, according to the Brody File.
Said Cruz: “If Donald wins Iowa, he right now has a substantial lead in New Hampshire, if he went on to win New Hampshire as well, there is a very good chance he could be unstoppable and be our nominee. Even if you’re thinking about another candidate, the simple reality is there’s only one campaign that can beat Trump in this state, and if conservatives simply stand up and unite, that’s everything.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 31%, followed by Ted Cruz at 29%, Marco Rubio at 13% and no other candidate above 7%.
This is virtually unchanged from a similar poll two weeks ago.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “Despite Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad’s criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite – or because of – Sen. Cruz’ ‘New York values’ comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call. One week before the caucuses gather, the question is which candidate has the best field organization. If the events of the last two weeks haven’t moved the needle, one wonders what would change it in the next six days.”
The latest NBC News/Survey Monkey tracking poll shows Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP field nationally with 39%, followed by Ted Cruz at 17%, Marco Rubio at 10%, Ben Carson at 8% and Jeb Bush at 4%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is holding steady at 51% with Bernie Sanders at 37%.
A new CNN/ORC poll shows Trump leading with 41%, followed by Cruz at 19%, Rubio at 8%, Carson at 6% and Bush at 5%.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds Trump leading with 37%, followed by Cruz at 21%, Rubio at 11%, Carson at 7% and Bush at 5%.
“Republican leaders are growing alarmed by the ferocious ways the party’s mainstream candidates for president are attacking one another, and they fear that time is running out for any of them to emerge as a credible alternative to Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz,” the New York Times reports.
“Leaders of the Republican establishment, made up of elected officials, lobbyists and donors, are also sending a message to the mainstream candidates, such as former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, that they should withdraw from the race if they do not show strength soon.”
Politico: “With less than a week until the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump is facing an 11th-hour barrage of negative advertising — with a new anti-Trump group spending more than $1 million in a last-ditch effort to defeat him.”
Gov. John Kasich was endorsed in the New Hampshire primary by the Boston Globe and the Concord Monitor, according to Politico.
Kasich has already been endorsed by the Nashua Telegraph, Foster’s Daily Democrat and the Portsmouth Herald.
A new Fox News poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by six points, 48% to 42%.
“Donald Trump said he would consider skipping this Thursday’s Republican primary debate if he doesn’t get fair treatment from Fox anchor Megyn Kelly — an apparent attempt to influence moderators at the final GOP debate before Iowa,” CNN reports.
Said Trump: “I don’t like her. She doesn’t treat me fairly. I’m not a big fan of hers at all.”
He added: “I’d like to go to the debate… But, we’ll see what happens. It’ll be exciting.”
A new Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 33%, followed by Ted Cruz at 14% and John Kasich at 12%, Jeb Bush at 9%, Marco Rubio at 8% and Chris Christie at 7%.
In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 55% to 39%.
Nate Silver: “The Party Decides, the 2008 book by the political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller, has probably been both the most-cited and the most-maligned book of this election cycle… However, the book does presume that, in part because of their breadth and diversity, American political parties are strong institutions. Furthermore, it assumes that strong, highly functional parties are able to make presidential nominations that further the party’s best interest.”
“For a variety of reasons, the nomination of Donald Trump would probably not be in the best interest of the Republican Party. Such an outcome this year, which seems increasingly likely, would either imply that the book’s hypothesis was wrong all along — or that the current Republican Party is weak and dysfunctional and perhaps in the midst of a realignment.”
Nate Cohn: “Momentum is generally overrated in primary politics, but back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would give Mr. Trump a chance to run the table through Super Tuesday, on March 1, especially with the establishment-backed candidates so divided. It would be a big reversal of the hopes of conservatives from a few weeks ago; they figured Mr. Trump might simply evaporate if he lost Iowa.”
“The party’s establishment is not well positioned to stop Mr. Trump if he fares so well in the early states. All of the main establishment candidates are near one another in New Hampshire. If the field doesn’t narrow quickly after the primary there on Feb. 9, there will be a real chance that Mr. Trump will build a wide delegate lead over a split field on Super Tuesday.”
PredictWise now sees Trump as a 2 to 1 favorite over Cruz in Iowa.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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