Nate Cohn: “Momentum is generally overrated in primary politics, but back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would give Mr. Trump a chance to run the table through Super Tuesday, on March 1, especially with the establishment-backed candidates so divided. It would be a big reversal of the hopes of conservatives from a few weeks ago; they figured Mr. Trump might simply evaporate if he lost Iowa.”
“The party’s establishment is not well positioned to stop Mr. Trump if he fares so well in the early states. All of the main establishment candidates are near one another in New Hampshire. If the field doesn’t narrow quickly after the primary there on Feb. 9, there will be a real chance that Mr. Trump will build a wide delegate lead over a split field on Super Tuesday.”
PredictWise now sees Trump as a 2 to 1 favorite over Cruz in Iowa.
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