Political Wire

Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, trending news, a private podcast, no ads and more!

Trump Suggests He Might Lose Iowa

December 30, 2015 at 2:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Donald Trump seems to be coming to terms with the idea he might lose in Iowa, Politico reports.

Said Trump: “If I come in second by 2 points, they’ll say ‘Ooh, this is a terrible defeat.’ It’s not terrible.”

“It seemed like a classic case of expectations-setting common to presidential campaigns, but rarely seen from Trump, who has consistently led both in national and early-state polls.”

New York Times: “He allowed at one point in his speech that he could finish in the top four and be happy, but then quickly said he wants to win Iowa and that the media would say he lost no matter how close to first place he came.”

An End to the Clinton-Trump Friendship

December 30, 2015 at 2:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

New York Times: “In the past week, any semblance of a friendship between Mr. Trump and Bill Clinton came to an ugly end as the former president and his wife’s presidential campaign found themselves in a muddy battle over sexism with the Republican candidate who has upended this election cycle with his insults and attacks.”

“The criticism of Mr. Clinton’s personal life comes as Mrs. Clinton is increasingly relying on the former president, mentioning him in almost every speech as she praises his economic record. But Mr. Trump’s attacks on him are now rippling through the race, with other candidates and even a prominent newspaper columnist suggesting that Mr. Clinton’s sexual history is fair game.”

Politico: Trump was for the Clintons before he was against them

The Cruz Caucus

December 30, 2015 at 2:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

“Not a single U.S. senator has endorsed Ted Cruz for president. But over in the House, a dozen activist conservatives are going all out to catapult the first-term Texan into the White House,” Politico reports.

“Lawmakers like Reps. Steve King of Iowa and Mo Brooks of Alabama are attending campaign rallies with Cruz. Others are serving as surrogates at Republican debates, lending their names to fundraising appeals, and taking to conservative radio and cable TV in an effort to burnish Cruz’s credibility with crucial evangelical and conservative primary voters.”

Zhou Enlai May Have Been Gay

December 30, 2015 at 1:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

A new book, The Secret Emotional Life of Zhou Enlai, claims the first premier of the People’s Republic of China was gay, the New York Times reports.

“That assertion is sure to be contentious in China, where homosexuality is not widely accepted and where many may view it as an attack on Zhou’s character. Indeed, the book is expected to be banned in mainland China, as are other unauthorized biographies of Zhou.”

Bush Has Less Urgency Than Others to Win

December 30, 2015 at 1:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson told U.S. News that Jeb Bush doesn’t have to win one of the early states.

Said Thompson: “He doesn’t have to win until he gets to Nevada and Super Tuesday. He’s the one person with the ties to the establishment and the organization in every state. There are Bush people in every state, whether it be for the father Bush, the younger Bush or Jeb.”

He added: “Other candidates have to start showing victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Bush doesn’t have to have that. He’s got the luxury he’s got enough money to continue advertising. Jeb doesn’t have to win the first three states.”

Kasich Compares Bush to the ‘Macarena’

December 30, 2015 at 1:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

In a new ad, John Kasich likens Jeb Bush to things people haven’t thought about in years.

Trump Says Personal Life is Fair Game

December 30, 2015 at 1:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

“If Democratic or Republican opponents want to drag some of the sordid details from Donald Trump’s personal life onto the campaign trail, that’s fine by him,” CNN reports.

“Trump didn’t go into specifics, and reporters didn’t follow up on the question. But his personal life at times has been tabloid fodder, most famously in the early 1990s when his marriage to his first wife, Ivana Trump, fell apart after he had an extramarital affair with model and actress Marla Maples. Trump eventually married Maples in 1993, and the two divorced six years later. Trump married his current wife, Melania, in 2005.”

Money May Matter Less Than We Thought

December 30, 2015 at 1:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “The accepted wisdom headed into the 2016 cycle was that the combination of wide-open races and looser campaign finance laws would make the race more expensive than ever—and that, by extension, whoever had the most money would have a big advantage.”

“Not so. The most well-heeled Republican candidate, Mr. Bush, has slowly but surely faded. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, backed by a well-stocked super PAC—one of the unregulated campaign organizations sucking up big donations—was gone before the first frost. Money is nice, but it isn’t nearly enough.”

Clinton Could Survive Loss in New Hampshire

December 30, 2015 at 1:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

Washington Post: “Clinton has hardly written off the state, but appears to be working on the assumption that a loss here would be only a temporary blow on the way to a relatively easy primary victory. She is likely to defeat Sanders the week before in Iowa, where the first 2016 presidential selection contest will be held, and again in the next two contests in South Carolina and Nevada. She is also favored in the heavy slate of southern and other states that vote in early and mid-March.”

Politico: Clinton fights to reclaim New Hampshire

Pataki to Drop White House Bid

December 29, 2015 at 5:44 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 56 Comments

Former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) is reportedly dropping out of the presidential race after months of lagging near zero percent in polls, The Hill reports.

A Month Is a Long Time in Politics

December 29, 2015 at 5:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With the Iowa caucuses just 34 days away, it’s easy to look at the polls for guidance as to who might win. But the last two presidential elections have shown big surprises in the final month.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

Ted Cruz Loves the Campaign Trail

December 29, 2015 at 4:28 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

Bloomberg: “Ted Cruz is as comfortable and happy on the stump as he is uptight and gloomy on Capitol Hill. While Republican rivals like Florida Senator Marco Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Ohio Governor John Kasich approach campaigning like a job, Cruz revels in it, often coming across as a boisterous televangelist feeding off the adoration of the crowd.”

“He deploys fiery lines and sarcastic jokes from one campaign stop to the next with an identical script and delivery, right down to the pauses for applause and impact, like an actor who has practiced and perfected a routine in the mirror the night before.”

Trump Voters Want Revenge

December 29, 2015 at 4:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 74 Comments

Frank Luntz: “The phenomenon of ‘The Donald’ is rooted in a psyche far deeper and more consequential than next November’s presidential election… These individuals do not like being told by Washington or Wall Street what is best for them, … and disdain President Barack Obama and his (perceived) circle of self-righteous, tone-deaf governing partisans. Trump voters are not just angry – they want revenge.”

Bloomberg: “The million-dollar question in 2016 is whether the estranged and alienated voters Trump has attracted will show up at the polls that count. The answer to that question will determine whether Trump has changed American politics as we know it.”

Trump Leads in Nevada

December 29, 2015 at 4:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

A new Gravis Marketing survey in Nevada finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 33%, followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 11%, Ben Carson at 6%, Carly Fiorina at 5%, Jeb Bush at 5% and Chris Christie at 5%.

[Read more…]

Rubio Refuses to Pick One Early State

December 29, 2015 at 4:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

“With a nationally focused campaign that leans on strong debate performances and television advertising, Marco Rubio isn’t going all out in any one of the early voting states. That’s raised eyebrows among Republicans in states such as Iowa, where people are used to attention in a presidential campaign,” the AP reports.

“That’s unlike Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has set his sights on Iowa, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is pushing hard in New Hampshire. While supporters say Rubio just needs to stay in the top cluster in the first few states, some see his approach as risky.”

Bloomberg: “Rubio’s pitch to Republican voters is focused on his electability. Campaign allies who introduce him on the stump make a point to mention it, and the Floridian likes to bring it up himself.”

The Income Defense Industry

December 29, 2015 at 4:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

The New York Times reports on how “the very richest Americans have financed a sophisticated and astonishingly effective apparatus for shielding their fortunes.”

“Operating largely out of public view — in tax court, through arcane legislative provisions and in private negotiations with the Internal Revenue Service — the wealthy have used their influence to steadily whittle away at the government’s ability to tax them. The effect has been to create a kind of private tax system, catering to only several thousand Americans.”

Clinton Most Admired Again

December 29, 2015 at 4:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

Gallup finds Hillary Clinton is the most admired woman in America for the 14th year in a row, her 20th time to get that honor.

GOP Flirting with Chaos at Convention

December 29, 2015 at 3:52 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

Ben Ginsberg, the former counsel to both Mitt Romney’s and George W. Bush’s presidential bids, detailed three possible scenarios in the Wall Street Journal for the Republican convention:

“Three convention scenarios can emerge after 56 states and territories choose their delegates between Feb. 1 and June 7: There will be a clear winner, a bunched up field of several candidates, or a leader who can’t get a majority of delegates on the first ballot. The latter two scenarios would make Cleveland uncharted territory.”