“Donald Trump will ring in the new year with Fox News,” Politico reports.
“Trump will be live from Florida during the 11 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, helping hosts Kimberly Guilfoyle and Eric Bolling count down to 2016.”
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Why Rubio Is Avoiding the Early States
Bloomberg: “According to people in Rubio’s orbit, the campaign views the well-funded Cruz as its primary long-term threat and wants to halt his recent momentum. Rubio’s advisers think he has an equally good shot of winning over conservatives, given the near equal popularity the two senators enjoy among Republican voters (favorable-to-unfavorable ratings of 58-18 for Cruz; 55-18 for Rubio, according to a recent poll).”
“But less than six weeks before the first votes of the race will be cast, Rubio has a light footprint in Iowa and New Hampshire compared to some of his chief competitors in each state. Eschewing the kind of labor-intensive retail campaigning that voters in those early-voting states traditionally demand, Rubio is waging a gamble by running a more national- and media-driven campaign. He has also placed a premium on landing wealthy donors, with notable successes.”
Cruz Says He’s Locked Up Conservative Lane
Sen. Ted Cruz predicted to the National Review that the GOP presidential race “will boil down to the familiar dynamic of an establishment favorite squaring off against a conservative challenger after they claim victories in New Hampshire and Iowa, respectively.”
Said Cruz: “I believe I will be that conservative candidate. I don’t know who the moderate candidate will be.”
“Cruz’s confidence owes to his campaign, an Obama-style grassroots-heavy operation that prioritizes direct voter contact and ground organization. So certain of his operational superiority has the senator become that he dons his strategist cap gleefully and discusses the most granular details of his polling enterprise and outreach program. Moreover, he mocks the approach taken by Rubio’s campaign, which is famously allergic to process stories and defiantly dependent on media buys… And yet Cruz clearly believes Rubio is best positioned to consolidate the other lane of the race.”
Wonk Wire: GOP wants a conservative
The Story Behind Trump’s First Campaign Book
Dave Shiflett, the ghostwriter for Donald Trump’s first “campaign book” in 2000, The America We Deserve, writes in the Wall Street Journal “of the man who would be king.”
“Mr. Trump and I made a pretty good team. He needed words, I needed money, and together we explored what he would do if he became president. I have long considered the resulting book my first published work of fiction.”
Trump and Kelly to Face Off Again
Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly will moderate the January 28 Republican presidential debate along with colleagues Chris Wallace and Bret Baier, The Hill reports.
“The trio will return to moderating after handling the first GOP debate of the cycle in August, after which front-runner Donald Trump feuded with Kelly and the network for months, claiming unfair treatment.”
Polls May Underestimate Trump’s Support
A Morning Consult analysis looks at the fact that Donald Trump generally has done better in online polls than in phone surveys.
Los Angeles Times: “The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate — online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer. Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure.”
“Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are ‘less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human’ than when they are in the ‘anonymous environment’ of an online survey.”
Huntsman Ruling Out Third Party Run
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R), who unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, says he’s getting “a lot” of encouragement to launch another White House bid from Republicans concerned about the prospect of Donald Trump as the 2016 GOP nominee, USA Today reports.
Said Huntsman: “I always want to help my country where I can, but you don’t want to embark on a suicide mission. I’m not ready for a third-party run until we have a complete collapse of the Republican Party that I can still believe in.”
The Great GOP Revolt
David Frum: “Something has changed in American politics since the Great Recession. The old slogans ring hollow. The insurgent candidates are less absurd, the orthodox candidates more vulnerable. The GOP donor elite planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war.”
“The puzzle for the monied leaders of the Republican Party is: What now? And what next after that? None of the options facing the GOP elite is entirely congenial. But there appear to be four paths the elite could follow, for this campaign season and beyond. They lead the party in very different directions.”
Trump Quote of the Day
“She was favored to win and she got schlonged.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by Politico, pointing out that Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic nomination in 2008.
Could Rubio Lose Early States and Win Nomination?
Nate Cohn: “Usually, it would be pretty hard to win the nomination without an early victory. But this year, there’s a good case for why it might be easier: The candidates favored in Iowa and New Hampshire might be such flawed candidates that they would not necessarily block Mr. Rubio.”
“Those candidates, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, will face protracted resistance from the party’s elite and many of its voters. The opposition they face will not evaporate, even if one of them wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Opposition could even grow in a desperate, last-ditch effort to stop them — assuming such an effort still seems possible.”
Trump Maintains Edge in New Hampshire
A new AIF poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump ahead in the GOP presidential race with 24%, followed by Ted Cruz at 16%, Marco Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 13% and Jeb Bush at 9%.
Trump and Cruz Tied in South Carolina
A new AIF poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz tied in the GOP presidential race at 27%, followed by Marco Rubio at 12%, Ben Carson at 11% and Jeb Bush at 7%.
Cruz Closes the Gap with Trump
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field nationally with 28%, followed by Ted Cruz at 24%, Marco Rubio at 12%, Ben Carson at 10% and Chris Christie at 6%.
Bush and Rubio Continue to Trail in Florida
A new AIF poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 29%, followed by Ted Cruz at 18%, Marco Rubio at 17% and Jeb Bush at 10%.
Conservative Talk Radio Moves to Cruz
Politico: “Conservative talk radio likes to flirt with Donald Trump, but its hosts are showing their commitment to Ted Cruz. With a month left until the Iowa caucuses, attacks on the ascendant 2016 contender have nudged his talk radio supporters back into line, pushing them to throw their valuable support behind the candidate they want to win rather than the one who assures a strong audience.”
GOP Turns Political Correctness Into Straw Man
Dana Millbank: “The notion of political correctness became popular on college campuses a quarter-century ago but has recently grown into the mother of all straw men. Once a pejorative term applied to liberals’ determination not to offend any ethnic or other identity group, it now is used lazily by some conservatives to label everything classified under ‘that with which I disagree.’ GOP candidates are now using the ‘politically correct’ label to shut down debate — exactly what conservatives complained politically correct liberals were doing in the first place.”
Trump Says He Wouldn’t Kill Reporters
Donald Trump repeatedly joked that he would “never kill” reporters, even though he detests them, Business Insider reports.
Said Trump: “I would never kill them but I do hate them. And some of them are such lying, disgusting people. It’s true.”
Trump Maintains His National Lead
A new Emerson College poll finds Donald Trump leading the GOP race nationally with 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 21%, Marco Rubio at 13%, Ben Carson at 7%, Jeb Bush at 6%, Chris Christie at 6% and Carly Fiorina at 5%.
