Nate Silver: “The interesting thing, as we’ve pointed out before, is that a candidate can potentially gain in the polls in the short term by increasing his media coverage, even if he potentially hurts his favorability rating. Trump seems to realize this. So far in December — a month in which, among other things, he’s proposed to ban Muslims from entering the United States — he’s been the subject of 70 percent of media coverage of the Republican race, even higher than his long-term average of 54 percent. According to the regression, that extra media coverage is worth about 8 percentage points in the polls: almost exactly how much Trump has gained in national polls since the month began and enough to put him in the mid-30s in the polling average instead of the high 20s.”
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Another Ugly Trump Rally
MSNBC: “Some Donald Trump supporters attending the Republican presidential candidate’s rally in Las Vegas on the eve of the next GOP debate treated protesters with unusual hatred Monday night. Trump was interrupted several times by Black Lives Matter protesters, prompting a furious reaction from the crowd. Some screamed, pointed, and at one point shoved a heckler as hotel security swooped in to remove them. As one man was dragged away, Trump supporters variously yelled, ‘Shoot him!’ ‘Kick his ass,’ and ‘Light the motherf—-r on fire!’ A large middle aged man shouted, ‘Sieg heil!’ — a Nazi Germany-era salute — as the protester was taken away.”
The More Bush Spends the Worse He Does
First Read: “Indeed, Jeb Bush and his allies have now spent more than $35 million on TV ads since September — almost as much as the rest of the GOP field combined… They’ve spent $17 million in New Hampshire (but Bush is just in single digits there). They’ve spent $9 million in Iowa (yet Bush’s fav/unfav is upside down among GOP caucus-goers in the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll). And they’ve spent another $5 million in South Carolina.”
“Bottom line: The more money he and his allies spend, the worse it’s gotten for the campaign. And Bush now finds himself at a crossroads. Does his Right to Rise Super PAC starting using the $25-$30 million it has reserved for future ad buys to go negative against the rest of the field? Or does it call off the dogs? After tonight’s debate, Jeb Bush definitely has some soul-searching to do.”
For members: Will Jeb Bush be the next to drop out?
Conservatives Try to Pick a Nominee
National Review reports that a group of Republican elites really did meet last week in a back room in an attempt to pick a nominee.
“It didn’t take long for the participants to winnow down their list. They eliminated the weaker contenders: Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ben Carson among them. This facilitated the Cruz-Rubio duel many had been anticipating: Cruz, the Protestant purist with a pit bull’s demeanor, versus Rubio, the Catholic pragmatist with a choirboy’s countenance. Or, as one member framed it: ‘Cruz the Fighter versus Rubio the Communicator.'”
“After each round of balloting, the participants paused to pray collectively, and then broke off into smaller conversations to try to persuade opponents to switch sides. Cruz allies had slowly peeled away some Rubio supporters, but the two factions appeared to be at an impasse and were hunkering down for a late night.”
Walker Rents Email List to Rivals
“Scott Walker has begun selling access to his email list to pay off his leftover presidential debt… But there’s a catch,” Politico reports.
“While it never says so in the emails from his old foes, or anywhere, the money that donors give isn’t necessarily all going to whichever smiling candidate is pictured on the site and writing the email. That is because Walker’s committee has struck secret deals with at least some of his old competitors to split the proceeds — unbeknownst to those doing the giving.”
Cruz Super PACs Poised to Start Spending
Sen. Ted Cruz’s allies “for months have questioned why his friendly super PACs appeared to be stockpiling their cash, running few television ads while his presidential rivals dominated the airwaves,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Now, with the Texan surging in polls, that approach seems to have left him in a strong position.”
“Together, the four primary super PACs backing the senator have spent some $2.2 million, or less than 6% of the $38 million they raised in the first half of the year, according to Federal Election Commission records confirmed by a person familiar with the groups’ finances. That leaves them with more than $30 million to spend as the first nominating contest approaches Feb. 1.”
Huckabee Says Campaign Is Fine Despite Staffer Leaving
Mike Huckabee “says that losing his top spokeswoman isn’t a sign of things to come, and he’s still all in on the 2016 campaign,” Politico reports.
Said Huckabee: “We hate to lose Alice, but she’s decided that — she’s I think, exhausted from the campaign. We’re moving forward … If people try to read more into it than is there, they’re going to be making a huge mistake.”
Trump Leads But Isn’t the Frontrunner
Nate Cohn says “it’s still too soon to say Mr. Trump is the front-runner for the nomination. He has a high floor but a low ceiling, and although he has weathered many controversies, the toughest days are yet to come.”
“The polls already show initial signs of those challenges, like Ted Cruz’s lead in Iowa; the number of Republicans who say they would not support him; his weakness in polls of verified voters; and his smaller or nonexistent leads in one-on-one matchups against likely rivals.”
“His chances of winning — which are real, even if not good — depend much more on the weaknesses of his opponents than his own strengths. The good news for Mr. Trump is that the opposition is flawed enough to entertain such an outcome.”
Cruz Will Be a Target at Tonight’s Debate
New York Times: “Mr. Cruz, who is showing signs of consolidating support among hard-line conservatives, is likely to come under sharp attack. Issues like national security and immigration will take on greater urgency. And candidates who are struggling to leapfrog into contention are sure to try to seize on one of the last ripe opportunities to do so before voters in the early nominating states begin making up their minds.”
“But while much has changed, one figure remains the same: Mr. Trump, the leader in national polls and the field’s chief provocateur and pacesetter, whose sometimes outrageous and demagogic comments have not only roiled the race but also amplified divisions between party leaders and the conservative grass roots.”
Politico: “The hardest hits, though, are expected to come from Rubio, who’s locked horns repeatedly with Cruz on national security matters.”
CNN Looking for a Fight
Politico: “Want a taste of what sort of debate this will be? Just watch the promo CNN has been running for the last month, which features a rapid-fire screenshot of each candidate paired with pulsing background music. Sources briefed on the network’s plans say it’s looking for a two-hour slugfest full of confrontation — the kind of program CNN boss Jeff Zucker loves.”
Trump Jumps to Largest National Lead Yet
A new Washington Post-ABC News national poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican primary with 38%, followed by Ted Cruz at 15%, Marco Tubio at 12%, Ben Carson at 12% and Jeb Bush at 5%.
Big caveat: “At this point in the campaign, even with the first votes fewer than 50 days away, national polls are not always the reliable predictors of where presidential nominating contests are heading… National surveys can change quickly and sometimes dramatically after voters in the early states begin to register their preferences.”
Several Have Earned Speaking Fees While Running
Politico: “Presidential candidates typically take a timeout from the paid-speech circuit to avoid potential conflicts of interest and thorny restrictions on mixing campaign and personal business. But that hasn’t stopped Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina or Mike Huckabee, who chose to fulfill commitments to the nonprofits and business groups that signed them up for five-figure fees before they jumped into the race.”
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Being President Can Shorten Your Life
New York Times: “Now, the largest statistical study of its kind, examining elections held in 17 countries from 1722 to 2015, has found that elected heads of government lived 2.7 fewer years and experienced a 23 percent greater risk of premature death than the defeated office seekers.”
“The analysis tested the hypothesis that elected presidents, prime ministers and chancellors experience accelerated aging and premature death because of the stresses of political life. The authors compared 279 elected heads of government with the 261 runners-up whom they defeated and who never served as heads of state. The researchers determined the number of years each competitor lived after the last election in which they ran, and compared the findings with the average life span for an individual of the same age and sex in each candidate’s country during the election year.”
Congress Nears Agreement on Spending Bill
“Congressional leaders were nearing agreement on a $1.15 trillion spending bill and year-end tax legislation Monday, but were still haggling over a handful of thorny policy issues,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Politico: “The discussions — which are being led by Speaker Paul Ryan — are remarkably different in tenor than end-of-year budget debates of the past. Capitol Hill is not in hysteria, and Ryan and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) are swapping offers without the typical finger-pointing and brinkmanship that has characterized previous versions of these debates.”
McConnell Pledges Ambitious Agenda for 2016
Politico: “Now, heading into an election-year political environment that won’t exactly tilt toward legislative headway, McConnell is nonetheless promising that the Senate won’t get stuck in the doldrums. Topping his agenda is a push to pass all 12 appropriations bills, a goal that’s eluded Congress since 1994. The larger objective is to make the case to voters in 2016 that the GOP Senate is in capable hands — and so they should keep it that way.”
“The Senate leader will have to navigate some serious obstacles to overcome election-year inertia next year, starting with the four GOP senators running for president and Democrats who are licking their chops to retake the chamber. But the election isn’t a reason to sit back, McConnell said.”
Is Carly Fiorina Relevant?
Washington Post: “Fiorina gained a key opportunity this fall when she rose in the polls after two strong debate performances that showcased her direct delivery style and command of the issues. But with businessman Donald Trump monopolizing media attention, and without the deep campaign organization of the other leading candidates, Fiorina is seeing her opportunity slip away.”
“Her road back to relevance could prove challenging, with voting in Iowa and New Hampshire just weeks away. The effort begins Tuesday in Nevada, where CNN will host the final Republican debate of the year.”
