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Trump Ahead as Rubio Inches Closer

February 5, 2016 at 5:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 72 Comments

A new WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP pack with 29%, followed by Marco Rubio at 16%, Ted Cruz at 13%, John Kasich at 13%, Jeb Bush at 9%, Carly Fiorina at 5% and Chris Christie at 4%.

A new UMass-Amherst/WBZ poll finds Trump leading with 35%, Rubio at 15%, Kasich at 11%, Cruz at 9%, Bush at 8% and Christie at 5%.

A new MassInc poll finds Trump leading with 29%, followed by Rubio at 12%, Cruz at 12%, Kasich at 9%, Bush at 9%, Fiorina at 8% and Christie at 6%.

A new Gravis Marketing poll finds Trump leading with 29%, Rubio at 19%, Cruz at 15%, Kasich at 13%, Bush at 8% and Christie at 6%.

Rubio May Have Violated Campaign Finance Rules

February 5, 2016 at 5:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

“After he began running for president, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio continued to send monthly payments to top campaign and Senate aides through his leadership PAC, Reclaim America, raising questions with election experts about whether the PAC is subsidizing his presidential campaign activities beyond legal limits,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Adelson-Owned Newspaper Picks Rubio

February 5, 2016 at 4:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

The Las Vegas Review-Journal has endorsed Marco Rubio in the Nevada Republican caucus.

Politico: “The endorsement comes just weeks after the paper was bought, initially in secret, by GOP megadonor and casino mogul Sheldon Adelson. But the editorial board made sure to note that its meeting with Rubio came months before the sale, and that ‘the Adelsons have detached themselves from our endorsement process, and our endorsement of Sen. Rubio does not represent the support of the family.'”

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Rubio Steals Cruz’s Iowa Bounce

February 5, 2016 at 4:42 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Nate Silver: “Rubio has gained about 6 percentage points in the New Hampshire polls, while Donald Trump has lost 2 points (although Trump remains the favorite here). There’s still a tiny bit of pre-Iowa data in the polling average, and the numbers will undoubtedly shift around a few points over the weekend. But if any candidate were emerging with massive momentum as a result of his Iowa performance, we probably would have seen it by now.”

“Cruz isn’t. In fact, his numbers haven’t really moved at all. He’s polling at 12.4 percent today, versus 12.0 percent before Iowa.”

How Cruz Won Iowa Suggests Troubles Ahead

February 5, 2016 at 4:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 46 Comments

“Ted Cruz kept his hopes alive with a come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses this week. But the way he won raises serious questions about his chances later on,” the New York Times reports.

“He won Iowa for one reason: He excelled among people who described themselves as “very conservative.” They voted for him by a big margin; he won 44 percent of them to Donald Trump’s 21 percent, according to exit polls. He lost every other ideological category, and often by a lot. The national Republican primary electorate is far more moderate than Iowa’s, so Mr. Cruz will need to attract a far broader coalition.”

Republicans Have Spent Little on Polling

February 5, 2016 at 2:44 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

MSNBC: “In the three months leading up to the Iowa caucus, many Republicans spent little to nothing on polling. Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush each spent just over $150,000 on campaign polls, while the two non-politicians in the race, Ben Carson and Donald Trump, declined to buy any polling research at all. The data is from the campaigns’ spending summaries for the final quarter of 2015, which are released under federal election law.”

“Ted Cruz was the only Republican who spent much on polls – over $380,000 – and his campaign threw another $3 million into separate data for ‘donor modeling.'”

Koch Brothers Could Sit Out 2016 Election

February 5, 2016 at 2:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

If the 2016 presidential election is a Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton match up, the Koch brothers may not participate, Vanity Fair reports.

Said one unnamed adviser: “I could see the network not participating in the presidential election at all.”

Christie Pauses Campaign for Springsteen

February 5, 2016 at 12:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 46 Comments

“Less than a week before the New Hampshire primary,” Gov. Chris Christie went to Boston and “took a break from the campaign trail to” see his 136th Bruce Springsteen show, the Boston Globe reports.

Rubio Surges Into Second In New Hampshire

February 5, 2016 at 11:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard 56 Comments

A new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll in New Hampshire shows Donald Trump leading the GOP primary field with 29%, followed by Marco Rubio at 19%, John Kasich at 13%, Jeb Bush at 10%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Chris Christie at 5% and Ben Carson at 4%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “What a difference a caucus makes. By exceeding expectations in Iowa, Marco Rubio is converting likability to electability even more so than Ted Cruz, who, like many conservative Iowa winners of the past like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, can’t seem to convert an Iowa win into a major showing in New Hampshire.”

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton, 50% to 41%.

Branstad Says Cruz Ran ‘Unethical’ Campaign

February 5, 2016 at 11:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) credited Ted Cruz for running an “old-fashioned”, 99-county campaign in Iowa, but also ripped Cruz for using “questionable” campaign tactics, Radio Iowa reports.

Said Branstad: “This thing that they distributed on Caucus night saying that Dr. Carson was likely to drop out and his supporters should support Cruz, that is, I think, unethical and unfair. I think there’ll be repercussions to that.”

Christie Highlights Santorum’s Endorsement of Rubio

February 5, 2016 at 10:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

Gov. Chris Christie quickly turned Rick Santorum’s endorsement of Marco Rubio into a negative with a cringe-worthy one minute video.

Portman Comes Out Against Trade Deal

February 5, 2016 at 10:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), a former U.S trade ambassador, announced that he “opposes a sweeping 12-nation Pacific Rim trade agreement, dealing a setback to a deal that is seen as a key part of President Obama’s economic legacy,” the Washington Post reports.

“The Ohio Republican is facing a difficult re-election campaign against Ted Strickland, an anti-trade former Democratic governor, in a state that has seen a steep decline in manufacturing as a result of companies moving operations overseas. The announcement is a significant but not fatal blow to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, which is protected by fast-track rules that ensure it cannot be filibustered in the Senate.”

Megyn Kelly Gets a Book Deal

February 5, 2016 at 10:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

“Megyn Kelly, the Fox News host who made national headlines for tangles with Donald Trump during a Republican presidential debate in August, has signed a book deal with HarperCollins,” according to the Hollywood Reporter.

“HarperCollins did not disclose details about the book’s subject matter. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed either. A rep for CAA, who negotiated the deal on behalf of Kelly, says reports of a $10 million advance were inaccurate.”

A Big List of the Bad Things Clinton Has Done

February 5, 2016 at 10:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard 64 Comments

Brett Arends: “Today I’m performing a public service on behalf of all the voters. I went back and re-read all the criticisms and attacks and best-selling ‘exposes’ leveled at Hillary Rodham Clinton over the past quarter century. And I’ve compiled a list of all her High Crimes and Misdemeanors.”

An Unambiguous Sign Sanders Won Last Night’s Debate

February 5, 2016 at 9:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Google has a page the shows what New Hampshire residents were searching for about each of the candidates during last night’s Democratic debate and the results are striking.

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Still Friends at the End

February 5, 2016 at 9:53 am EST By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

First Read highlights how last night’s contentious Democratic debate ended on a positive note when both candidates were asked if they would choose each other as their running mate.

Clinton’s answer: “If I’m so fortunate as to be the nominee, the first person I would call to talk to about where we would go and how we’d get it done would be Senator Sanders.”

Sanders replied: “I agree with what the Secretary said, we shouldn’t be getting ahead of ourselves. And as I have said many times, you know, sometimes in these campaigns things get a little bit out of hand. I happen to respect the secretary very much, I hope it’s mutual. And on our worst days, I think it is fair to say we are 100 times better than any Republican candidate.”

Quote of the Day

February 5, 2016 at 9:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

“I suppose she could give Goldman Sachs its money back, or something like that. But that’s not going to happen.”

— Former Sen. Gary Hart, quoted by the New York Times, on what Hillary Clinton can do to win in New Hampshire.

Trump Still Leads as Clinton Slips

February 5, 2016 at 8:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard 51 Comments

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Donald Trump still leads the GOP presidential pack nationally with 31%, followed by Ted Cruz at 22%, Marco Rubio at 19% and Ben Carson at 9%. No other candidate above 3 percent.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton barely leads Bernie Sanders, 44% to 42%.

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton. And despite the Iowa setback, Donald Trump is way ahead of his GOP opponents.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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