“Yeah, yeah, I realize how badly Shrum screwed me.”
— John Kerry, quoted by the New Yorker, on how strategist Robert Shrum had restrained him from hitting back against the Swift boat attacks during the 2004 presidential campaign.
Cruz vs. Rubio Becomes Battle to Watch
“The intensifying feud between GOP presidential candidates Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz will be at the center of Tuesday’s Republican debate in Las Vegas,” The Hill reports.
“Terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., have shifted the national discourse to national security, a strong issue for the hawkish Rubio. He’s been focused in recent weeks on attacking Cruz, who has been doing his best to send a message to conservatives that Rubio is too centrist to be trusted.”
First Read: “While the political world is playing up some of the (minor) jabs between Trump and Cruz, the real action in tomorrow night’s debate might be Rubio vs. Cruz. “
More Audio Leaks of Ted Cruz Coming This Week
An informed source tells Playbook there’s more audio leaking out of New York City fundraising events for Ted Cruz.
“Our little bird says that when addressing Manhattan donors, Cruz strikes a more moderate and inclusive tone on social issues than he does when speaking to Iowa audiences. Some donors say that New York Cruz sounds different than Iowa Cruz. Look for the next audio track on a conservative news site early this week. The leaks are designed to undermine Cruz’s authenticity.”
Brad Phillips: Oops! I have that thing you just denied saying on tape.
Politics Won’t Slow for the Holidays
Politico: “Trump’s sustained success, not to mention the rising establishment fears that he is increasingly defining the Republican Party and well-positioned to actually capture its nomination, has rival campaigns and RNC officials headed into the holidays with a sense of rising panic.”
“But it’s not just Trump that explains why this is shaping up to be anything but a quiet Christmas season on the campaign trail. Ted Cruz’s success in Iowa, which only compounds the establishment’s headache, Chris Christie’s sudden ascent in New Hampshire and Marco Rubio’s steady accumulation of major donors are all certain to make the final three weeks of 2015 loud and ugly.”
Clinton Could Be Vulnerable in General Election
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Hillary Clinton would defeat Ted Cruz and trounce Donald Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head general election matchup, but she would lose to Marco Rubio or Ben Carson.
“Clinton, who leads the Democratic primary field by nearly 20 points, would have a strong advantage over Trump with independent voters but would be bested by the three other Republicans with the important swing group.”
Clinton Widens Lead in Iowa
A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton is building her lead over Bernie Sanders, 48% to 39%, with Martin O’Malley at 4%.
Interesting: “The new poll does show Sanders leading Clinton among Democrats who plan to caucus for the first time, by 49% to 40%. But that isn’t enough to overcome her popularity among other Democrats.”
Trump Says Clinton Has ‘Killed Hundreds of Thousands’
Donald Trump told Fox News that Hillary Clinton is responsible for the deaths of “hundreds of thousands” of people.
Said Trump: “She is the one that caused all this problem with her stupid policies. She talks about me being dangerous. She’s killed hundreds of thousands of people with her stupidity.”
Republicans Ignore Climate Deal
“President Obama hailed the landmark climate accord reached this weekend as ‘the best chance we’ve had to save the one planet that we’ve got.’ To the Republicans vying to succeed him, it was almost as if the deal never happened,” the New York Times reports.
“In a stark display of the partisan divide in the United States over climate change, the Republican presidential candidates have said almost nothing about the Paris Agreement, even though whoever succeeds Mr. Obama will be tasked with carrying it out.”
“The near-silence among Republicans is a striking illustration of the vastly different roles that climate change is playing in the presidential primaries for the two major parties. In some ways, the ardor among Democrats to address it — and the lack of interest among Republicans in discussing it — makes it seem as if the parties are on different planets.”
Most Say 2016 Election Not About Obama
A new USA Today/Suffolk University Poll suggests President Obama “won’t be on the ballot next November, and most Americans say the 2016 election isn’t a debate over whether to continue his policies as president.”
A 51% majority of all those surveyed disagreed with a statement that the election “boils down to whether or not we want to continue Barack Obama’s policies for an additional four years.” Forty-four percent agreed with it; the rest were undecided.
Cruz Could Grab More of Trump’s Iowa Support
Joshua Green digs deeper into the new Iowa Poll and finds that Ted Cruz “is poised to draw away even more of Trump’s supporters—and that Trump may have difficulty luring those who currently favor Cruz.”
“Cruz’s strategy of embracing, rather than attacking, Trump—even after Trump makes controversial or offensive statements—appears to have served him well, at least so far. In the new poll, respondents who say they support Trump have an extremely positive view of Cruz: 73% view him favorably, while 18 percent view him unfavorably. Asked to state their second-choice preference, these Trump supporters overwhelming pick Cruz (49%), with Rubio (16%) a distant second. If Trump falters or alienates his current supporters, they appear quite open to supporting Cruz.”
Far Right French Party Fails in Regional Elections
“French voters turned out in droves Sunday to prevent a surging anti-establishment, anti-immigration party from capturing regional office, a week after the once-fringe group shocked many by leading the nationwide vote in the first round of elections,” the Washington Post reports.
“As the votes were counted, the initial results made clear that the National Front had been barred from office, and they reinforced the party’s narrative that a sizable minority of France’s citizens are being shut out from power. The group, which has campaigned to stop immigration, slash benefits to non-citizens and restrict France’s ties to the European Union, has already shifted France’s debate around immigration, pushing mainstream leaders to take a harder line against refugees and non-citizens.”
4 Reasons Why Ted Cruz Is Now Favored to Win
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Cruz Campaign Credits Psychological Data
Ted Cruz’s campaign is using “psychographic targeting” to find potential supporters, “an approach that campaign officials believe has helped propel the senator from Texas to the top tier among Republican presidential candidates in many states, including Iowa, where he is in first place, according to two recent polls,” the Washington Post reports.
“It’s also a multimillion-dollar bet that such efforts still matter in an age of pop-culture personalities and social-media messaging… Micro-targeting of voters has been around for well over a decade, but the Cruz operation has deepened the intensity of the effort and the use of psychological data.”
Rubio Slams Cruz as an Isolationist
Sen. Marco Rubio hammered Sen. Ted Cruz “for opposing the U.S. government’s bulk phone data collection and voting against spending bills and defense authorization acts — suggesting Cruz’s voting record is that of an isolationist,” CNN reports.
Said Rubio: “He talks tough on some of these issues. For example, he was going to carpet bomb ISIS. But the only budget he’s ever voted for in his time in the Senate is a budget that cut defense spending by more than Barack Obama proposes we cut it.”
Paul Barely Makes the Debate Cutoff
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “narrowly made the cutoff for CNN’s Dec. 15 prime-time debate, avoiding an embarrassment that pundits had predicted for days. Paul’s campaign had preemptively asked the network to revisit its debate standards and spare itself a fight,” the Washington Post reports.
“But a late factor — a Fox News poll that pegged his support at 5 percent in Iowa — got him over the line without any further argument.”
A Snapshot of Iowa GOP Voters
The New York Times digs deeper into last night’s Des Moines Register poll in Iowa:
“Nearly six in 10 say climate change is a hoax. More than half want mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Six in 10 would abolish the Internal Revenue Service.”
Romney Douses Talk of Convention-Floor Comeback
Mitt Romney “did his best to squelch talk of a secret plan to again nominate him for president at next year’s Republican National Convention in Cleveland,” the Arizona Republic reports.
Said Romney: “Please let me know who’s doing that and I’ll have a word with them. I’m not running.”
He added: “There are a number of people who I support, who I think would be terrific presidents, whether it’s Jeb Bush or Chris Christie or Marco Rubio or Lindsey Graham or Carly Fiorina. The list goes on and on… We’re going to see how the process works out and I expect that we’re going to be very happy.”
The Rise of Right-Wing Populism
The Economist: “Populists differ, but the bedrock for them all is economic and cultural insecurity. Unemployment in Europe and stagnant wages in America hurt a cohort of older working-class white men, whose jobs are threatened by globalization and technology. Beneath them, they complain, are immigrants and scroungers who grab benefits, commit crimes and flout local customs. Above them, overseeing the financial crisis and Europe’s stagnation, are the impotent self-serving elites in Washington and Brussels who never seem to pay for their mistakes.”
“Jihadist terrorism pours petrol on this resentment—and may even extend populism’s appeal. Whenever IS inspires or organizes murderous attacks, the fear of immigrants and foreigners grows. When the terrorists get through, as they sometimes inevitably will, it highlights the ruling elite’s inadequacy.”
