A new McClatchy-Marist poll finds that 58% of Republican voters like Jeb Bush less after hearing more about him, compared with 32% who like him more.
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“I will go on record today, and tell you this… I never hit my mother with a hammer, and I never stabbed anybody. Never wrote about it either. So there you go, at least I’m out there, on the record for that.”
— Mike Huckabee, quoted by Politico.
Vitter Addresses Prostitution Scandal
Sen. David Vitter addresses his past indiscretions with a prostitute in a new ad: “I failed my family.”
A Race Very Much Unsettled
Gerald Seib: “It may seem an odd thing to say on the verge of the fourth Republican presidential debate, but the fight for the Republican nomination has never felt more unsettled.”
“The next month or so figures to be critical in determining the shape of this most unusual of races. The 2016 cycle has shown so far that nothing is certain, but it is highly likely things will look different by year’s end, when actual voting will lie just ahead.”
Ayotte Drifts Away from the GOP
Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) “is positioning herself as a Party of One,” the Washington Post reports.
“She has deliberately broken with Senate Republicans – most notably, by publicly calling out Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for insisting on defunding Planned Parenthood in the budget bill and by announcing her support for President Obama’s clean power plan. Her voting record in recent years has drifted further towards the center, much to the frustration of influential conservative outside groups.”
Trump Makes the Most of Free Media
New York Times: “Thirty-second television commercials were once signs of a confident, well-financed candidacy for the White House. Now they are seen as a last resort of struggling campaigns that have not mastered the art of attracting the free media coverage that has lifted the political fortunes of insurgent campaigns like those of Mr. Trump and Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon who has surged to the top of the polls.”
“Mr. Trump’s ability to command media attention and reach voters without depleting his campaign funds is just the latest example of the way that his campaign has upended the conventional approach candidates have used to communicate with voters.”
Rubio’s Tax Plan Doesn’t Add Up
Jonathan Chait notes that Marco Rubio’s tax plan “would reduce federal revenue by $11.8 trillion over the next decade. The entire Bush tax cuts cost about $3.4 trillion over a decade, making the Rubio tax cuts more than three times as costly.”
“Among the Republican presidential candidates, Rubio is widely considered to be a moderate on fiscal issues. The clarity with which we can now examine Rubio’s plan, juxtaposed against recent events, provides a sense of the ongoing relationship between the Republican Party and economic reality. It remains deeply hostile.”
Media Scrutiny Is Part of the Job
First Read: “And while our system of picking a president is imperfect — especially when it comes to the news media’s role in it — do realize this: It’s maybe the closest simulation to actually being in the Oval Office. For all of the attention Obama received on Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers, those stories paled in comparison to the intense scrutiny of the BP spill, selling the health-care law, dealing with the HealthCare.Gov crash, and reacting to the party’s 2010 and 2014 midterm losses. For George W. Bush, his presidency went through the ringer of the Iraq war, Hurricane Katrina, Harriet Miers, the Social Security-reform push, and the financial crash. So if you can’t deal with the news media picking apart your autobiography and your past speeches, you probably won’t be able to deal with the bad news that inevitably comes your way as president.”
Netanyahu Visits the White House
New York Times: “The tortured relationship between Barack and Bibi, as they call each other, has been a story of crossed signals, misunderstandings, slights perceived and real. Burdened by mistrust, divided by ideology, the leaders of the United States and Israel talked past each other for years until the rupture over Mr. Obama’s push for a nuclear agreement with Iran led to the spectacle of Mr. Netanyahu denouncing the president’s efforts before a joint meeting of Congress.”
“As Mr. Netanyahu arrives at the White House on Monday for his first visit in more than a year, both leaders have reasons to put the past behind them. They will discuss a new security agreement and ways to counter Iran.”
The Latest on Wonk Wire
Here’s what’s trending on Wonk Wire today:
Democratic Voters Much Less Engaged than GOP Voters
A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll shows that several important voting groups for Democrats are significantly less tuned in to next year’s election than GOP-aligned voter groups are.
“Unmarried women, minorities, and particularly millennials are less interested in next year’s voting than seniors, conservatives, and white non-college men are. Non-college women — a group the Clinton camp is reportedly eyeing as a way to expand on the Obama coalition — are also less interested.”
It’s Rough When You Lead the Polls
Despite Ben Carson’s claims of being unfairly vetted over inconsistencies over his biography, First Read finds it’s not true.
“We found a combined 165 New York Times and Washington Post articles that were all (or partially) about Barack Obama and Jeremiah Wright between the time Obama first launched his presidential bid (Feb. 2007) and his 2008 victory (Nov. 2008). During that same time period, we found an additional 41 New York Times and Washington Post pieces on Obama and Bill Ayers. And from the start of her campaign (April 2015) until now, we discovered a combined 44 NYT/WaPo articles about Hillary Clinton and her email server.”
“Bottom line: When you’re atop of the presidential polls, you’re going to get scrutiny — lots of it.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“By the way, President Obama says, ‘If these guys can’t handle moderators, how are they gonna handle China and Russia?’ You should be able to know that you’re going to be asked any question. It’s all fair game.”
— Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo, quoted by the Daily Beast, saying the GOP candidates should expect tough questions at their debate tomorrow night.
Can Polls Really Be Trusted Anymore?
New Yorker: “Election pollsters sample only a minuscule portion of the electorate, not uncommonly something on the order of a couple of thousand people out of the more than two hundred million Americans who are eligible to vote. The promise of this work is that the sample is exquisitely representative. But the lower the response rate the harder and more expensive it becomes to realize that promise, which requires both calling many more people and trying to correct for “non-response bias” by giving greater weight to the answers of people from demographic groups that are less likely to respond… A typical response rate is now in the single digits.”
“Meanwhile, polls are wielding greater influence over American elections than ever.”
Quote of the Day
“I find myself, strangely, a little sympathetic with him. I think it’s kind of a compliment that he’s not comfortable trying to outdo some of the other people in the wild comments.”
— Buddy McKay (D), quoted by CNN, on Jeb Bush, despite losing to him in the 1998 Florida governor’s race.
Carson Blames Co-Author for Inaccuracies
Ben Carson blamed his co-author for apparent inaccuracies in his book, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Carson :“You know, when you write a book with a co-writer and you say that there was a class, a lot of time they’ll put a number or something just to give it more meat. You know, obviously, decades later, I’m not going to remember the course number.”
Cruz Brands Rubio as a Moderate
“For Ted Cruz, the single biggest obstacle to winning the Republican presidential nomination may not be outsider candidates Donald Trump or Ben Carson, but his fellow first-term senator, Marco Rubio,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Cruz: “As I look at the race, historically, there have been two major lanes in the Republican primary. There’s been a moderate lane and a conservative lane. Marco is certainly formidable in that lane. I think the Jeb [Bush] campaign seems to view Marco as his biggest threat in the moderate lane.”
Bachmann Says Jesus Is Coming Soon
Former Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) called for converting as many people as possible to Christianity because Jesus is “coming soon,” The Hill reports.
Said Bachmann: “We recognize the shortness of the hour. And that’s why we as a remnant want to be faithful in these days and do what it is that the Holy Spirit is speaking to each one of us, to be faithful in the Kingdom and to help bring in as many as we can — even among the Jews — share Jesus Christ with everyone that we possibly can because, again, he’s coming soon.”
Bachmann added that “the prophets longed to see the days that you and I live in.”
