A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 16%, followed by Jeb Bush at 12%, Scott Walker at 12%, Mike Huckabee at 11%, Ben Carson at 9%, Marco Rubio at 9%, Rand Paul at 7%, Ted Cruz at 6% and Chris Christie at 5%.
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Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“I have a great relationship with the Mexican people. I have many people working for me – look at the job in Washington – I have many legal immigrants working with me. And many of them come from Mexico. They love me, I love them. And I’ll tell you something, if I get the nomination, I’ll win the Latino vote.”
— Donald Trump, in an interview with NBC News.
Scott Walker Is His Own Strategist
New York Times: “As Mr. Walker, 47, prepares for his formal entry into the presidential contest, he has brought on a campaign manager, a pollster and a group of press aides. But he has not hired a strategist — because it might be needlessly duplicative: Those who know him well say that Mr. Walker has always been his own.”
“For all the attention he has drawn because of his confrontations with organized labor, Mr. Walker is at least as animated by political strategy and tactics as he is by policy and ideological crusades. Except for a brief post-college stint fund-raising for the Red Cross, he has spent his entire adult life in politics, first running for state representative at 22. He has held elected office continuously since 1993; the presidential contest will be his 14th campaign. And he comes to the race steeped in the knowledge required of a good political operative: what it costs to compete in swing states; the science of purchasing television advertising time; the art of getting good press.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“He chose to publicly vent his frustration. We all have our own styles and our own comportment and we all see our roles in a certain way. My father had one style, Koch had one style … that’s the mayor’s style, it’s not my style. … I try to bite my tongue once in a while.”
— New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), quoted by the New York Observer, on New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D).
Clinton Campaign Finds Sanders Useful
Rick Klein: “It may be an accident of timing that the week the Clinton campaign chose to focus on national press was also the week the national press woke up to the big crowds and big dollars flowing to Bernie Sanders. (And it’s worth noting that the walking rope pen also preceded the first national TV interview Hillary Clinton granted.) But in either context, the Clinton camp’s response to Sanders’ buzz suggests that they find utility in the attention he’s getting. ‘I always thought this would be a competitive race,’ Clinton told CNN’s Brianna Keilar.”
“She may actually have always thought that, and people around her may actually have said that publicly with some consistency. Don’t mistake that, though, for their actual read of the potential race against Sanders, either before or after the crowds starting coming out for Sanders. When stories emerge about how the Clinton campaign is concerned about Sanders’ rise, that’s the surest sign that Sanders is useful at this point in the race for Camp Clinton.”
GOP Candidates Push to Qualify for Debates
Bloomberg: “Many Republicans, and not just the candidates themselves, are furious about these rules, but neither Fox nor CNN has given any indication they plan on changing them. Which means that the next month—in which no votes will be cast—might well end up being among the most pivotal of the whole primary campaign. These candidates, for the next 30 days, aren’t trying to get votes: They’re trying to get poll points.”
Earlier: Who will make the first GOP debate?
The Latest on Wonk Wire
Here’s what’s trending on Wonk Wire today:
- What’s Next in the Obamacare Battle?
- A Troubling Surge in Heroin Use and Addiction
- Healthcare Costs Not Predicted to Skyrocket
- Voting Access Worst in Southern States
- Are Americans Really Trending Democratic?
- Only 5 States Limit Police Seizure of Personal Property
- Which Side is Winning in the War on Coal?
Trump Buys a New Hampshire Campaign
National Journal: “Maybe money can’t buy happiness, but it sure can buy the framework of a presidential campaign.”
“Just ask Donald Trump. The real-estate developer-turned reality TV star has never formally run for political office before, yet has put together a New Hampshire operation using a pretty simple plan: purchasing one off the shelf, in this case by hiring top staff away from Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity.”
Walker Sees Just Two Rivals for GOP Nomination
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) “is poised to become the 15th Republican to declare his presidential bid, with at least one more candidate expected to enter soon after. But at this point, his campaign advisers said this week that they see just two principal rivals for the GOP nomination: former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio,” the Washington Post reports.
“For months, Walker’s team has been preparing for a race against Bush’s money and Rubio’s compelling personal story. Advisers said Walker’s record as governor is more current than Bush’s and draws a sharper contrast with President Obama. Rubio has attributes that Walker has spoken about favorably in private conversations, but the governor’s campaign advisers consider the first-term senator far less tested. Walker’s path to victory, as outlined by his closest advisers, is not significantly different from that of his rivals, but his team says the calendar sets up well for him.”
“Iowa is the key: Walker is leading the polls there and, as a neighboring governor, he has easy access to the state. His advisers expect him to win the Iowa caucuses early next year, and they say he can follow that with top-three finishes in New Hampshire and South Carolina. They also think he can score an early victory in Nevada’s caucuses.”
Quote of the Day
“I had him by the hair and was beating his head on the sidewalk when he suddenly went limp on me. Then it came to me: I had killed the fucking son of a bitch, and I would be put on report back at the Academy! So I revived him — whereupon he came to and kicked me in the head about ten times till I was able to grab his leg … Moral: Show no mercy in a fight.”
— Former Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), quoted in Inside Reagan’s Navy.
Webb’s presidential campaign told the Daily Beast that Webb “does not comment on private conversations.”
Brownback Issues Executive Order on ‘Religious Liberty’
Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R) issued an executive order “prohibiting state government from taking action against clergy members or religious organizations that deny services to couples based on religious beliefs,” the Wichita Eagle reports.
“Among other things, the order is intended to protect religious organizations that provide adoption services for the state from having to place children with gay couples if that conflicts with their beliefs.”
New York Times: “The order comes nearly two weeks after the Supreme Court ruled that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry, paving the way for gay couples to marry across the country. It is the latest sign that the battle has shifted to the issue of religious liberties, and how much leeway people of faith have to opt out of providing services to or recognizing gay unions.”
Trump Wanted to Go Back to ‘The Apprentice’
CNN: “One person in Trump’s inner circle, who spoke anonymously to share Trump’s private thoughts, said the businessman was genuinely stung by NBC’s decision to sever ties with him. Even after announcing his presidential campaign, Trump had always expected to return to being host of ‘The Apprentice’ — a platform that has been central to creating an image of a tough boardroom CEO and experienced business leader.”
Said the person: “I don’t think it has anything to do with money. It has everything to do with prestige.”
Super PACs Take Over Campaign Organizing
New York Times: “In previous election cycles, super PACs — which can raise unlimited donations from corporations and individuals alike — largely channeled money from wealthy donors into political advertising. But now they are branching out into what had seemed a fundamental function of a campaign committee: organizing voters one at a time.”
“The practice of having super PACS, which can be entirely financed by a single billionaire, take over such operations allows campaigns, which may raise only $2,700 from any one donor, to outsource the costly, labor-intensive work of recruiting activists and building lists of supporters. It could also allow second-tier candidates to be more competitive, prolonging the nominating process.”
Spending Fight Could Lead to Government Shutdown
“From environmental and work force regulations to health care and contraception, congressional Republicans are using spending bills to try to dismantle President Obama’s policies, setting up a fiscal feud this fall that could lead to a government shutdown,” the New York Times reports.
“Even a planned papal visit to Congress in late September has added to the intrigue as the clock on a budget deal winds down.”
Confederate Flag Makes Last Stand in South Carolina
“Three weeks after the mass shooting at a predominantly black church in Charleston, the South Carolina House of Representatives is expected on Wednesday to step into the freshly revived debate about whether the Confederate battle flag should remain on the grounds of the State House,” the New York Times reports.
“With the flag perhaps facing its final days outside the Capitol, lawmakers have been circulating drafts of dozens of amendments that could jeopardize a bill that calls for the state to remove the flag and send it to the nearby Confederate Relic Room and Military Museum.”
Charleston Post and Courier: “The bill received first reading in the House, but no vote can be taken until a bill has been on the calendar overnight. If the House approves the Senate bill on final reading Thursday, it could reach Gov. Nikki Haley’s desk by Friday. The Republican governor has called for the flag’s removal.”
Gilmore Will Run for President
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) told the Richmond Times Dispatch that he is running for president and plans a formal announcement in the first week of August.
“He said he does not think any other Republican candidates have addressed what he considers the vital national security and economic concerns facing the nation.”
Clinton Steps Up Attack on GOP Field
Hillary Clinton escalated her criticism of her GOP presidential rivals during a campaign stop here in Iowa, “knocking the field of candidates on immigration reform, health care and LGBT issues while steering clear of directly attacking her Democratic primary rivals,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Clinton: “How many people running on the Republican side try to demean immigrants, insult immigrants, cast aspersions on immigrants? They know as well as we know, we are not going to deport 11 or 12 million people living here. I hear the Republican candidates — and it’s not even the most vitriolic — none of them any longer support a path to citizenship. All of them would basically consign immigrants to second-class status.”
U.S. Fighter Jets Met Russian Bombers
“The US scrambled fighter jets to intercept four Russian bombers that were flying close to the coast off California and Alaska on Independence Day,” according to the Independent.
“The North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) has not said if either pair of bombers was armed. At the time of the interceptions, Russian President Vladimir Putin had called President Obama to wish him a happy July 4th.”
