Here’s what’s trending on Wonk Wire today:
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Most Republicans Still Oppose Gay Marriage
A new Reuters poll finds that 63% of Republicans oppose the Supreme Court’s backing of gay marriage, which gives hope for conservative presidential candidates who have come out strongly against marriage equality.
“When asked in general whether they support allowing same-sex couples to marry, 51% of Americans say they do, while 35 percent oppose it. Forty-eight percent of independent voters back gay marriage, making it difficult for a conservative Republican to win general election votes on the issue.”
House GOP Will Vote on Allowing Confederate Flag
Roll Call: “In a rapid and dramatic policy shift, Confederate flag imagery could be allowed to remain displayed on graves on federal land in some circumstances under a Republican-sponsored amendment that will be voted on in the House on Thursday.”
Bush Says Americans Need to Work Longer Hours
Jeb Bush said that in order to grow the economy “people should work longer hours,” ABC News reports.
Said Bush: “My aspiration for the country and I believe we can achieve it, is 4 percent growth as far as the eye can see. Which means we have to be a lot more productive, workforce participation has to rise from its all-time modern lows. It means that people need to work longer hours and, through their productivity, gain more income for their families. That’s the only way we’re going to get out of this rut that we’re in.”
Rick Klein: “Bush’s comments read like a classic gaffe — a wealthy candidate with a famous name dispensing advice that ‘people need to work longer hours.’ But in their context and later clarification, it’s clear that Bush was making a very serious point about a very real issue: underemployment. That makes this episode an early test of Bush’s strength in the Republican field, as well as a challenge to his rivals who would consider pouncing on the moment.”
Taking on Trump May Be Key to GOP Primary
Mark Halperin: “Strength might be the defining factor in the 2016 presidential cycle so far…. To the other candidates, therefore, Trump should represents a target of opportunity‑because there’s no better way to show strength than by attacking a potent rival. And with Trump, of course, there’s much to attack…. Anything that he says is instantly national news, which, for his rivals, makes attacking him an extraordinarily risky proposition.”
“The risks are huge for anyone who makes a frontal assault, a full repudiation that goes beyond just challenging Trump on his immigration comments, a truly epic mud war. But a candidate who undertook it might be seen as both a party savior and pillar of strength, definitely prepared to be an Oval Office occupant. Even Bill Clinton might be impressed. Will any of them seize the moment?”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I have heard enough about heritage. I have a heritage. I am a life-long South Carolinian. I am a descendant of Jefferson Davis, okay? But that does not matter. It’s not about Jenny Horne. It’s about the people of South Carolina who have demanded that this symbol of hate come off of the statehouse grounds.”
— South Carolina state Rep. Jenny Horne (R), quoted by NBC News, supporting removal of the Confederate flag at the state capitol.
Republicans Worry Trump Will Be Face of the GOP
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, “responding to demands from increasingly worried party leaders, spent nearly an hour Wednesday on the phone with Donald Trump, urging the presidential candidate to tone down his inflammatory comments about immigration that have infuriated a key election constituency,” the Washington Post reports.
“But there is little they can do about the mogul and reality-television star, who draws sustenance from controversy and attention. And some fear that, with assistance from Democrats, Trump could become the face of the GOP.”
Quote of the Day
“If you’re too tired to defend this country, if you’re too war-weary, don’t vote for me.”
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by National Journal.
GOP Long-Shots Begin Ad Blitz
Politico: “Allies of at least four long-shot Republican presidential hopefuls are planning to blitz Iowa and New Hampshire with paid advertisements in the coming week with the hope of cutting through the clutter of a 17-candidate field.”
“The ads are being paid for by super PACs with one thing in common: The candidates they support are in danger of failing to qualify for the first presidential debate, scheduled for Aug. 6. The bet is that the ad buys will lead to a rise in poll numbers in one of the key early states. And that, in turn, is expected to help the candidates break through and generate enough positive news coverage to boost them into the top 10 — the threshold for earning a spot in the first debate.”
Sanders Could Win in Iowa and New Hampshire
Nate Silver says Sen. Bernie Sanders could beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire and lose everywhere else.
“Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are really liberal and really white, and that’s the core of Sanders’s support.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the Democratic nominee, not Bernie Sanders. That’s true even if Sanders manages to upset Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The fact is, the key constituencies of the Democratic Party are likely to back Clinton, and big Sanders audiences aren’t going to change that.”
Nate Cohn says the Sanders surge “is about to hit a wall: the rank and file of the Democratic primary electorate.”
Obama Says Odds are Still Against Iran Deal
President Obama pegged the chances of a nuclear agreement with Iran at “less than 50-50,” even as he worked to reassure Senate Democrats that he won’t accept a bad deal, Politico reports.
“During something of a working cocktail party Tuesday night, the president sounded a fresh note of pessimism as the nuclear talks in Vienna missed yet another self-imposed deadline — and as his administration has sought to refute accusations that it is desperate for a deal.”
Hacker Breach Was Enormous
FBI Director James Comey said the White House soon will announce that “millions and millions” of government background investigation records—dating back 20 years—were stolen by hackers who broke into the Office of Personnel Management’s network, the Wall Street Journal reports.
South Carolina Votes to Remove Confederate Flag
“The South Carolina House of Representatives made two historic votes early Thursday morning, ordering the permanent removal of the Statehouse’s Confederate battle flag,” the Charleston Post and Courier reports.
Said: Gov. Nikki Haley: “I’m grateful for their service and their compassion. It is a new day in South Carolina, a day we can all be proud of, a day that truly brings us all together as we continue to heal, as one people and one state.”
Grayson Will Run for Senate in Florida
Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) “will enter Florida’s 2016 U.S. Senate race this morning, casting himself as sick child from the tenaments in the Bronx who made it, first at Harvard then as a lawyer fighting war profiteers and now a champion of everyday people in Congress,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.
“The move sets up a fierce battle among the Democratic Party’s liberal activists, which Grayson will rely on, and the establishment that has coalesed behind Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL).”
Jeb Bush’s Surge
“Just two months after a flubbed question about the Iraq War seemed to imperil his presidential candidacy and a campaign shakeup hinted at disarray behind the scenes, Jeb Bush is back on top of the Republican field,” Politico reports.
“Bush has jumped from 10.8 percent on June 15, the day he announced, to 16.3 percent Wednesday in the Real Clear Politics polling average, almost 6 points ahead of his nearest rival, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. In New Hampshire, he’s taken a similar lead.”
The Trump Brand
David Remnick: “The personal brand is, depending on your inclinations, a gilded jackass or an up-from-nothing tell-it-like-it-is-type-a-guy (without the up-from-nothing part). But it’s always been more than buffoonish entertainment. The sheer number of people and peoples who Trump has managed to insult, bully, and mistreat is, in its way, awe-inspiring.”
Another Bonus Quote of the Day
“Here’s what I’ve learned as a politician: The magic of Lindsey Graham is to be Lindsey Graham.”
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by the New York Times.
LePage Inaction May Have Allowed Bills to Become Law
Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) and Democratic leaders clashed “about whether 19 bills became law after LePage failed to veto them or if the governor can still send the measures back to the Legislature,” the Portland Press Herald reports.
“In the latest twist of a historically bizarre legislative session, the LePage administration insisted Wednesday that lawmakers’ use of the word ‘adjourn’ last week rather than ‘recess’ gave the governor additional time to hold the 19 bills. Yet the nonpartisan state office responsible for publishing Maine statutes began writing the 19 bills into law on Wednesday despite the governor’s claims.”
“Republican leaders were conspicuously silent on the issue. Democrats, meanwhile, said the governor missed his veto window.”
