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On Announcing When You Will Announce

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The Fix: “Aside from simply pure name recognition, announcing that you will announce also primes the pump for donors who might not be aware of if/when you are getting in. Think of the announcement of an announcement as akin to pressing that little red button on your lawn mower a few times to get the gas flowing through the system before you try to start it. Or like a ‘save the date’ reminder for a wedding. You get the idea; it’s a way for Graham to get his planned announcement on the calendar of the political, donor and media world.”

“What the announcement of the announcement is not designed to do is increase the drama of what Graham will say. Because, everyone already knows what he will say.”

Quote of the Day

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“I did stand up and defend the president, President Bush, that I did say I think any president, regardless of party, probably would’ve made a similar decision to what President Bush did at the time, with the information he had available.”

— Gov. Scott Walker, quoted by the Washington Post, vouching for George W. Bush’s decision-making on Iraq at the time of the invasion.

Graham Will Announce on June 1

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Sen. Lindsey Graham said he’ll announce his presidential plans June 1 — but seemed to have already made up his mind, CNN reports.

Said Graham: “I’m running because I think the world is falling apart. I’ve been more right than wrong on foreign policy. It’s not the fault of others or their lack of this or that that makes me want to run. It’s my ability in my own mind to be a good commander-in-chief and to make Washington work.”


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The Republican Party is Dying Off

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Politico: “Since the average Republican is significantly older than the average Democrat, far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. To make matters worse, the GOP is attracting fewer first-time voters. Unless the party is able to make inroads with new voters, or discover a fountain of youth, the GOP’s slow demographic slide will continue election to election. Actuarial tables make that part clear, but just how much of a problem for the GOP is this?”

“Since it appears that no political data geek keeps track of voters who die between elections, I took it upon myself to do some basic math. And that quick back-of-the-napkin math shows that the trend could have a real effect in certain states, and make a battleground states like Florida and Ohio even harder for the Republican Party to capture.”

Wonk Wire: The GOP’s fraternity of failure

How to Deal with an Overcrowded GOP Field

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Bill Scher says Republicans should use money as the criterion for participation on the presidential debates: “Only let on stage the top 12 fundraisers.”

“Polls are lacking as a standard because people are constantly challenging their validity, and early polls mainly test name recognition among a broader group of voters who aren’t yet paying close attention. Crossing off names because of thin resumes is far too arbitrary, especially since voters are often partial to candidates who are fresh faces and lack baggage. Campaign events don’t mean much if no one shows up to them. And campaign staff levels are probably tightly correlated with money raised anyway.”

“But everyone knows money matters. Before the primaries begin, candidates always try to prove their worth by racking up dollars, and voters gauge candidate viability by tracking the dollars. They do this for good reason: Money is a proxy for determining breadth and depth of initial support, as well as assessing general election competitiveness. Why not embrace reality and formalize its importance in the debates?”

Bush Insists He’s Not Skipping Iowa

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Politico: “Between his low standing in state polls, the socially conservative bent of the Iowa GOP base and his decision to skip the state’s straw poll in August, Bush has lots of incentives to give up on Iowa next year. Republicans here know it, which is why the former Florida governor spent his weekend reassuring them he hasn’t already written off the state as a lost cause.”

First Read: “As we wrote last week, history has proved that serious candidates can’t afford to skip it — because it’s a general-election battleground state. Maybe more importantly, in a big and well-financed field, it’s possible you could win the Iowa caucuses by getting just ONE-FIFTH of the vote… It’s more than possible, in 2016, that the winning percentage could be lower than Santorum’s 24.6%. And if money isn’t an issue for Jeb, why not compete?”

Clinton Family Riches in Focus

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The New York Times reports the Clintons “have now earned more than $125 million on the circuit since leaving the White House in 2001.”

“The Clintons’ riches have already become a subject of political attacks, and her campaign has been eager to showcase Mrs. Clinton as a more down-to-earth figure. Her only declared Democratic opponent at this point, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, is an avowed socialist, while Republicans like Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin have considerably more modest means.”

GOP Legislatures Increasingly Bar Local Control

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Associated Press: “In the past five years, roughly a dozen states have enacted laws barring local governments from requiring businesses to provide paid sick leave to employees. The number of states banning local minimum wages has grown to 15. And while oil-rich states such as Texas and Oklahoma are pursuing bills banning local restrictions on drilling, other states where agriculture is big business have been banning local limitations on the types of seeds sown for crops.”

A Risk in Taking No Questions

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The New York Times says there’s a big risk in Hillary Clinton avoiding taking questions from the media.

“Mrs. Clinton, who has campaigned lightly in what aides have called a ‘slow ramp-up,’ can’t afford to appear as if she is taking things for granted. And she has historically needed a long runway in her campaigns, but the longer she goes without taking reporters’ questions, the less recovery time she has from any mistakes.”

When Campaigns Aren’t Necessarily Campaigns

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“With striking speed, the 2016 contenders are exploiting loopholes and regulatory gray areas to transform the way presidential campaigns are organized and paid for,” the New York Times reports.

“Their ‘campaigns’ are in practice intricate constellations of political committees, super PACs and tax-exempt groups, engineered to avoid fund-raising restrictions imposed on candidates and their parties after the Watergate scandal.”

“Major costs of each candidate’s White House bid, from television advertising to opposition research to policy development, are now being shifted to legally independent organizations that can accept unlimited contributions from wealthy individuals, corporations and labor unions. In this new world, campaigns are not campaigns. And candidates are not actually candidates. Though they sometimes forget it.”

Who’s Behind the Campaigns?

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New York Times: “Presidential candidates change, but the people who run the campaigns often remain the same. Here is how the teams behind some likely and announced candidates are connected to previous campaigns, administrations and organizations close to the possible nominees.”

Unions Give Clinton Space on Trade

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Wall Street Journal: “Labor unions are fighting hard to defeat legislation that would authorize sped-up consideration of a trade agreement being negotiated with 11 Pacific Rim nations. However, they are giving Mrs. Clinton the kind of breathing room they aren’t affording congressional Democrats or even the president.”

Quote of the Day

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“This whole process is to elect a Republican nominee. It’s not to provide a media circus. It’s not to provide entertainment to the masses and to create a show that would be delightfully pleasant for the opposition to watch.”

— Mike Huckabee, quoted by the Washington Post, commenting on the growing worry about a wide-open nominating contest featuring a historically large and diverse field.

Bush Sees No Right to Same-Sex Marriage

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Jeb Bush reiterated that he doesn’t believe that same-sex marriage is a constitutional right, the Washington Post reports.

Said Bush: “It’s at the core of the Catholic faith, and to imagine how we are going to succeed in our country unless we have committed family life, a committed child-centered family system, is hard to imagine. So, irrespective of the Supreme Court ruling — because they are going to decide whatever they decide, I don’t know what they are going to do — we need to be stalwart supporters of traditional marriage.”

Lawmaker Votes to Ban Abortion Despite Personal History

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Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN), “who supported his ex-wife’s decision to get two abortions was among those who voted in favor of a ban on most late-term abortions,” the Chattanooga Times Free Press reports.

“DesJarlais’ support of his ex-wife’s abortions, which occurred before their 1995 marriage, was revealed after his 2012 re-election to Congress in a divorce trial transcript. The transcript also showed the physician had engaged in multiple affairs with patients, and pressured one of them to get an abortion after she told him she was pregnant. The outcome of that pregnancy is unknown.”

Kasich Virtually Certain to Run

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Gov. John Kasich (R) is “virtually certain” to jump into the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, sources tell ABC News.

“Kasich has said his wife and daughters have given him a green light to run and in recent days Kasich has told his political advisors to begin preparing for a likely campaign. Kasich travels to New Hampshire in early June and recently did a fundraising trip to California. If he makes the final decision to run, he will make the announcement in late June or July.”

Rubio Struggles on Iraq War Question

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Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) “struggled on Sunday to give clear answers about whether it was a mistake for the United States to go to war against Iraq in 2003, becoming the latest Republican presidential candidate to trip on the wisdom of the military invasion,” the New York Times reports.

“The back-and-forth resulted in a three-minute video clip that Republican opponents could use against Mr. Rubio in the future, given that he came across as a politician used to debating fine points and nuances in the United States Senate — a problem that then-Senator John Kerry faced in his presidential run in 2004 — rather than as a seasoned leader used to giving clear statements. Mr. Rubio’s readiness for the presidency has been questioned among some Republican voters, given than he is a 43-year-old first-term senator, and moments like the boxing reference seemed discordant on a subject like the Iraq war.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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