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Boehner Faces No Tea Party Uprising

November 13, 2014 at 1:19 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

Roll Call: “House Republican leaders who have faced opposition from the most conservative wing of their own caucus in recent years may have stumbled across the best way to quash an intraparty revolt: Win.”

“Last week’s Election Day gains have quieted the talk of a mutiny against John A. Boehner that has obsessed some conservatives since a failed attempt to dethrone the speaker at the start of the 113th Congress. Even tea party members who have long spouted anti-Boehner bombast and candidates who hinted on the trail they would look elsewhere for leadership are sounding pleased with the status quo.”

What Era Do Republicans Actually Want to Restore?

November 13, 2014 at 11:37 am EST By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

Peter Beinhart: “Unlike Reagan, today’s Republicans are generally shrewd enough to avoid identifying exactly which previous age they wish to restore. But for African Americans, Latinos, women, and gays and lesbians, idealizing any previous age means idealizing one in which they enjoyed fewer rights and opportunities than they do today. Pledging to ‘restore’ America appeals to many older, straight, Anglo, white, and male voters, because it’s a subtle way of saying Republicans will bring back the good old days. The GOP’s problem is that to win back the White House, it must make inroads among Americans who know the good old days weren’t all that good.”

Axelrod Says Inevitability is a Problem for Clinton

November 13, 2014 at 11:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

David Axelrod, the chief strategist who guided President Obama into the White House, offered a blunt assessment of Hillary Clinton’s likely 2016 presidential campaign, saying she needs to “get out of the cocoon of inevitability,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Axelrod: “Tactics have to follow strategy. I think the danger for Secretary Clinton is that, as was the case in 2007, her candidacy is out in front of the rationale for it.”

The Worst Political Ad of 2014

November 13, 2014 at 11:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

A controversial ad by Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) attempted to link former state Attorney General Dan Sullivan (R) to an allegedly lax record on sentencing sex offenders but it backfired badly.

The Fix: “Begich pulled the ad — but the damage was very much done. Up until that point — early September — Begich had been the candidate with the momentum, maintaining a steady polling edge over Sullivan despite the conservative nature of the state. The Active ad ended that momentum. From that point onward, Begich’s numbers tumbled while Sullivan’s soared.”

Outside Spending Didn’t Buy the Election

November 13, 2014 at 10:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

New research from Alan Abramowitz: “The correlation between the Democratic and Republican outside spending difference and the Democratic margin was .23, which is not statistically significant. In contrast, the correlation between the Democratic margin and incumbency status was a more significant .76, and the correlation between the Democratic Senate margin in 2014 and the Democratic presidential vote margin in 2012 was an even more significant .89.”

“In other words, partisanship in a polarized era, represented by the ’12 presidential vote margin, was by far the strongest predictor of 2014’s Senate vote. Naturally, incumbency status is also significant. But the difference between amounts of outside spending by groups affiliated with both parties has surprisingly little effect, perhaps because both sides spent so much that the money from Republicans neutralized the cash from Democrats, and vice versa.”

White House Hints at Veto of Keystone XL Legislation

November 13, 2014 at 10:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard 60 Comments

The White House has begun hinting that President Obama would veto legislation that mandates approval of the Keystone XL oil-sands pipeline, National Journal reports.

“While a Keystone bill may not be able to clear the lame-duck Senate, the legislation will very likely have more than the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster when Republicans take over the chamber next year. But it’s unclear whether the new Senate could muster the 67 votes necessary to override a presidential veto.”

Wonk Wire: Using Keystone XL to save Mary Landrieu

Obama Readies Immigration Action

November 13, 2014 at 10:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

President Obama “is planning to unveil a 10-part plan for overhauling U.S. immigration policy via executive action — including suspending deportations for millions — as early as next Friday,” Fox News reports.

First Read: “Politically, the question is whether such action would be a smart move — or a dumb one… The pros: It’s the best chance for Obama to reform the system in the short term (especially since House Republicans are unwilling to pass their own legislation), and it will fire up Latino voters, who will be a critical bloc to Democrats’ success in 2016. The cons: It would spark a policy fight with Republicans (the outcome of which is impossible to predict), and it could alienate the white voters Democrats lost in 2014.”

“But maybe the biggest political reason to undertake executive action is that it would ensure the action becomes a key part of the 2016 race. Every Republican running for president would have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest then would turn into who’s tougher against the action: Do they promise to deport the undocumented immigrants (if Obama’s ultimate executive action entails allowing them to stay in the country)? Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go — and make it harder for the nominee to return to the middle in the general election. Politically speaking, Obama taking the action could be the biggest favor he does for Hillary Clinton (if she ends up running).”

God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy

November 13, 2014 at 10:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

Coming in January: God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy by Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee, who appears to be ramping up a 2016 presidential campaign, opens the book with a question, “Have I been taken to a different planet than the one on which I grew up?”

Obama Veers Left to Rally Democrats

November 13, 2014 at 9:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments

President Obama “has taken significant steps to the left since his party’s devastating losses in the midterm elections,” The Hill reports.

“In a surprise, he announced a major deal on climate change with China during a trip to Beijing Tuesday. That followed another unanticipated move — a Monday statement pressuring the Federal Communications Commission to adopt new net neutrality rules for the Internet. The moves are helping to rally a dispirited Democratic base while re-establishing Obama’s political leadership after he was sidelined during the midterms.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 13, 2014 at 9:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

“Bill and I are going to have to have some interesting things to talk about. Look, I’ll still like him when Jeb beats Hillary.”

— Former President George W. Bush, quoted by Business Insider, on his brother’s potential 2016 presidential campaign.

Republicans Bury Landrieu in Runoff

November 13, 2014 at 9:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard 67 Comments

Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (D-LA) re-election race “is truly running out of air: She’s responsible for a mere 4 percent of all TV spots in the week-old Louisiana runoff. Republican challenger Bill Cassidy and his friends paid for 96 percent of the spots that have run so far,” Bloomberg reports.

One Democrat tells TPM: “She just can’t win. It’s just not mathematically possible. The way you win statewide in Louisiana is you get 95 percent of the black vote, a good African-American turnout, and 30 to 33 percent of the white vote. And she’s at 20! … Where does she gain? If you put her at 23 percent now, how does she gain 10 points with white voters in a month?”

Reich Won’t Run for President

November 13, 2014 at 9:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich told MSNBC that he’s not running for president despite some liberals urging him on.

Said Reich: “I’m too short and too outspoken to run. I hear it from people, but I don’t take it seriously.”

What if he were drafted? “I don’t know what it means to be ‘drafted.’ I really don’t think there’s any serious possibility.”

Internal Memos Show Dysfunction in Davis Campaign

November 13, 2014 at 8:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

Internal memos obtained by the Texas Tribune finds that consultants for Wendy Davis (D) warned her campaign months ago that she “was headed for a humiliating defeat in the Texas governor’s race unless she adopted a more centrist message and put a stop to staggering internal dysfunction.”

From the January memo: “The campaign is in disarray and is in danger of being embarrassed. The level of dysfunction was understandable in July and August, when we had no infrastructure in place — but it doesn’t seem to be getting better.”

Arkansas Governor Will Pardon His Own Son

November 13, 2014 at 8:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Outgoing Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe’s (D) office says he plans to pardon his son over a 2003 felony marijuana conviction, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports.

Beebe is leaving office in January due to term limits.

Quote of the Day

November 13, 2014 at 8:22 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

“No, I haven’t seen any discussion about the complete lack of message. I think they need to figure out what they stand for and then talk about it.”

— Former DNC Chairman Howard Dean, quoted by The Hill, on the Democratic losses in the 2014 midterm elections.

Used Car Salesman Who Raised No Money Wins

November 13, 2014 at 5:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

Mark Maynard (R) “owns a used car lot, runs a towing business and spends his spare time on a professional drag racing pit crew. And despite not raising a dime for his Republican campaign and agreeing with his Democratic opponent on almost all the issues, he defeated West Virginia’s longest-sitting state senator,” the AP reports.

“That was the kind of election it was for West Virginia Democrats. As voters took out their disgust with President Obama, Maynard defeated Sen. Truman Chafin (D), a lawmaker Republicans previously had bothered to challenge only once in three decades.”

Conservatives Push Showdown Over Immigration

November 13, 2014 at 5:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“A bloc of Republican lawmakers is seeking to use must-pass spending legislation in the final weeks of the year to place limits on President Obama ’s ability to loosen immigration rules, threatening to split the party in Congress,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The result is that barely a week after their broad election victories, party leaders will have to decide whether to override conservatives’ demands in favor of a more pragmatic approach. Party leaders also will have to decide when and how hard to fight the president over immigration, an issue that is important to the growing bloc of Hispanic voters who are expected to carry more sway in the 2016 elections than they did this fall.”

Video Sparks New Outrage Over Obamacare

November 13, 2014 at 5:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

“The Republican Party’s ardent campaign against President Obama’s health-care law gained new momentum Wednesday as lawmakers reacted angrily to assertions by an architect of the policy that it was crafted in a deliberately deceptive way in order to pass Congress,” the Washington Post reports.

“On both sides of the Capitol, leading conservatives said they may call economist Jonathan Gruber to testify about his remarks, which were made last year and surfaced this week in a video on social media. In the video, Gruber suggests that the administration’s signature health-care legislation passed in part because of the ‘stupidity of the American voter’ and a ‘lack of transparency’ over its funding mechanisms.”

Wonk Wire: Will the GOP’s anti-Obamacare alternative “kill people.”