Last week, Nate Silver wrote a lengthy critique of Sam Wang’s midterm election forecast for Political Wire.
Wang responds below.
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Quote of the Day
“Yeah, I spent most of my career doing that.”
— Georgia U.S. Senate candidate David Perdue (R), quoted by Politico, when asked about his “experience with outsourcing” in a 2005 deposition.
Polling the Pollsters
FiveThirtyEight asks pollsters for their thoughts on the midterm elections and the accuracy of polling.
“In their responses, most pollsters predict Republicans will win the Senate by a narrow margin. Many say fewer people are responding to polls this year, compared to 2012, and more expect greater polling error — that is, the difference between what the latest pre-election polls show and actual vote margins — in the upcoming election, than expect less error. And yet, the results also show how little the pollsters agree on.”
Democrats Start to Point Fingers
“Democrats are starting to play the blame game as they face the possibility of losing the Senate in November,” The Hill reports.
“Tempers are running high a month out from Election Day, with polls showing Democratic candidates trailing in the crucial battleground states that will decide whether the Congress flips to Republican control.”
12 Families Who Have Always Supported the Clintons
Bloomberg Politics finds twelve couples have supported Bill and Hillary Clinton “by giving more than two hundred dollars to the five national campaigns, the PAC, the Clinton Foundation, and Ready for Hillary–the outside group promoting a second Clinton presidential run.”
“These few devotees–the very innermost circle of the Clinton cult–have supported Bill and Hillary since at least 1992, through epochal triumphs and bimbo eruptions and the slow bleed of Whitewater culminating in the Monica scandal, which caused the faith of the most devoted to be tested–after which, of course, Bill could be once again taken out of the closet.”
Politico: Rogue donors not ready for Hillary?
Jeb Hasn’t Decided Yet
Mark Halperin: “Here’s the reality, distilled from over a dozen discussions with those who know Bush really well: Jeb himself still hasn’t decided.”
“There is no doubt that Bush is significantly closer to running for President than he was four years ago. He isn’t showing some leg to sell books or raise his speaking fees. He isn’t worried about the mechanics of the race, such as who might be his New Hampshire campaign manager, or how best to deal with straw polls. His decision-making process is less about consultation than, as is typical for the former Florida governor, about introspection. Jeb Bush is grappling with the hardest of questions: Is he the right person to bring the Republican Party toward the center and govern a country that has proven stubbornly difficult to lead? In other words, is this, finally, his time?”
Branstad Buys Illinois TV Time to Win Elusive County
In five statewide elections, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) has never carried Lee County, in the state’s southeast corner. Seeking his sixth term next month, Branstad wants that to change that, the AP reports.
“Branstad, having swamped Democrat Jack Hatch in fundraising, has bought television advertising time on WGEM in neighboring Quincy, Illinois, the only local television station that covers all of Lee County, as well as west central Illinois and northeast Missouri. The move is part of the 67-year-old Branstad’s personal political goals, which also include scoring big in his opponent’s home county and leaving the party stronger, should 2014 be his last campaign.”
Southern Democrats Need Black Voters to Win
Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Mark Pryor (D-AR) and Kay Hagan (D-NC) “are trying to distance themselves from a president who is deeply unpopular among white voters. But if they have any hopes of winning, they also must try to lock down the voters most loyal to Mr. Obama : African-Americans,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“How Southern Democrats walk this tightrope will help determine whether their party maintains control of the Senate. Sens. Landrieu, Hagan and Pryor are among the party’s last lines of defense in a region that has become a Republican stronghold.”
Kaine vs. Obama on War Powers
“In June, after he had written a scorching opinion article seeking to constrain the president’s unilateral power to make war, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), one of Barack Obama’s earliest supporters, buttonholed the commander in chief at the White House for what he called ‘a spirited discussion,'” the New York Times reports.
“The militants of the Islamic State were pouring across the Syrian border into Iraq, and seizing cities where so much American blood and treasure had been spilled. But Mr. Kaine said he told the president in no uncertain terms that if he intended to go to war, he would have to ask Congress’s permission. President Obama politely but firmly disagreed. They have been battling ever since.”
Only Bill Clinton Can Help on Campaign Trail
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenberg survey finds Bill Clinton is the politicians who can give candidates the biggest boost by campaigning with them.
“An endorsement from Mr. Clinton would make 38% of people look at the candidate more favorably, compared to 24% who would take a less favorable view. No other politician in the survey had a net positive more than one percentage point, the mark earned by Mrs. Clinton and First Lady Michelle Obama.”
Biden Has to Apologize Again
Vice President Joe Biden “apologized to the United Arab Emirates Sunday for charging that the oil-rich ally had been supporting al Qaida and other jihadi groups in Syria’s internal war, his second apology in as many days to a key participant in the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State extremists,” McClatchy reports.
Brazil’s Presidential Election Heads to Runoff
Wall Street Journal: “Brazil’s presidential race is headed to a second round after President Dilma Rousseff won the most votes on Sunday but failed to clinch the majority she needed to win a second term outright. The leftist Ms. Rousseff will face the more conservative Aécio Neves in a runoff on Oct. 26,”
New Senate Polls Give GOP the Edge
The latest New York Times/CBS News/YouGov polls of key Senate races show that Republicans “lead by at least four percentage points in enough races to finish with 50 seats — just one short of the 51 seats they need to overcome Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote and take the Senate.”
“The Republicans’ likely gains include six seats currently held by the Democrats: in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. If those leads hold up, Republicans have four opportunities to capture the 51st seat they need in Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas.”
“Nonetheless, the data suggests that the Democrats retain a clear, if difficult, path to victory. Perhaps most notable, the data offers reason to question the conventional wisdom that Republicans have recently made substantial gains in Colorado and Iowa.”
Ernst Barely Ahead in Iowa
A new NBC News/Marist Poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) edging Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.
Orman Leads in Kansas
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Kansas finds Greg Orman (I) is leading Sen. Pat Roberts (R) by 10 points in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 38%.
Hagan Maintains Edge in North Carolina
A new NBC News/Marist Poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) has a slight advantage over challenger Thom Tillis (R), 44% to 40%.
A New and Improved Bobby Jindal
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) “is working to show voters he’s more than a wooden wonk by loosening up on the campaign trail,” The Hill reports.
“Now, with a new and improved, more relaxed demeanor, some conservatives are taking a second look at the Louisiana governor for 2016 after largely writing him off as a major contender for the White House. Jindal surprised many last week when he gave a strong speech at the Values Voters Summit in Washington. The half-hour address drew both laughs and strong applause from the social conservatives gathered, and Jindal showed a dynamic style as he paced across the stage.”
Pending Gay Marriage Decision Could Define Supreme Court
“The 10th edition of the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. begins work Monday with the prospect of a monumental ruling for gay rights that could serve as a surprising legacy of an otherwise increasingly conservative court,” the Washington Post reports.
“Whether the justices will decide that the Constitution protects the right of same-sex couples to marry dominates expectations of the coming term; such a ruling would impart landmark status on a docket that so far lacks a blockbuster case. And some say it would be a defining moment for a closely divided court that bears the chief justice’s name but is most heavily influenced by the justice in the middle: Anthony M. Kennedy, who has written the court’s most important decisions affording protection to gay Americans.”
