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Young People Abandon Obama

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Dana Millbank: “An army of 15 million voters under 30 swept Obama past Hillary Clinton and John McCain and to the presidency in 2008. More than 12 million helped him return in 2012. But now his presidency is on the line — and the Obama youth are abandoning him in his hour of need.”

“The administration announced last week that only 1.08 million people ages 18 to 34 had signed up for Obamacare by the end of February, or about 25 percent of total enrollees. If the proportion doesn’t improve significantly, the result likely will be fatal for the Affordable Care Act.”

Prosecutors Call for Investigation of Reid and Lee

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Two prosecutors in Utah say a corruption investigation looking at state politicians and online gambling interests has yielded evidence that could implicate Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), ABC News reports.

“The two district attorneys – one Democrat and one Republican – already working with a team of FBI agents, are urging federal prosecutors to pick up the case and investigate – something the Department of Justice has thus far declined to do. The Utah officials say the evidence relates to suspect campaign contributions and other financial transactions.”


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Quinn Way Ahead of Primary Challenger in Illinois

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A new Strive Strategies poll in Illinois finds Gov. Pat Quinn (D) leading primary challenger Tio Hardiman (D) by a large margin, 64% to 36%.

Political Fix: “In a news release, the polling firm calls that a ‘solid lead’ and presents it as good news for Quinn. It isn’t. Hardiman has no political base, no money, and has received no serious media coverage. It’s unlikely that one-third of Democratic Illinois voters even know who he is, let alone are supporting him.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“You can call yourself Republicans. That’s fine, because that’s your voter registration. Don’t call yourself Reagan Republicans. Ronald Reagan would never, would never let this kind of aggression go unresponded to by the American people.”

— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by the Washington Post, blasting GOP senators for blocking a Ukrainian aid package.

Can Georgia Turn Blue?

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Los Angeles Times: “Seen as Democrats’ best hope to pick up a Senate seat in the midterm election, the daughter of former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn is counting on her Republican opponents to alienate voters with their far-right platforms, as has occurred elsewhere in recent races.”

“But her campaign also hinges on whether she can take advantage of the Peach State’s rapidly changing demographics. Once a Democratic stronghold, Georgia turned red over the last 20 years as white voters embraced Republican candidates. Fewer than 1 in 4 white Georgians voted for President Obama in 2008.”

Don’t Forget That Politics is Cyclical

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Charlie Cook: “It’s surprising how many people who avidly follow American politics don’t seem to appreciate that elections are both seasonal and cyclical in nature.”

“The seasonal aspect is the more obvious one. Clearly in some years, or seasons, the wind is blowing in favor of one party. In other years, it appears to blow in the opposite direction. In others still, as during the time between seasons, the partisan winds do not seem to blow in any direction at all.”

“Unfortunately, the cyclical nature is lost on more people. In any given even-numbered year, the House is on a cycle of its own, the Senate another, and the governorships yet another. The easiest to identify is the House cycle; with its two-year terms, all you have to do is look at the previous election. If Democrats had a great year and picked up a large number of Republican seats, you know that Democrats are likely to be overexposed and to suffer losses in the coming election cycle. If Republicans had a banner year in the previous election, they are more likely to lose than to gain seats. It’s all pretty straightforward.”

Primary Rival Calls Graham ‘Ambiguously Gay’

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South Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Dave Feliciano (R) said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is “ambiguously gay” at a candidate forum, according to The State.

Said Feliciano: “It’s about time that South Carolina says hey, We’re tired of the ambiguously gay senator from South Carolina. We’re ready for a new leader to merge the Republican Party. We’re done with this. This is what it’s about, all of us coming together and saying, one way or the other, one of us is going to be on that ballot in November.”

Deal Reached on Unemployment Benefits

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“Five Senate Democrats and five Republicans unveiled a deal on extending expired unemployment insurance benefits for five months, which should be enough to overcome a GOP filibuster and get the package out of the Senate later this month,” Roll Call reports.

Politico: “The behind-the-scenes horse-trading was so furious that the deal was not finalized until minutes before the 4:15 p.m. announcement. Many senators were unaware that their colleagues had just struck an agreement on jobless aid that has evaded the Senate for weeks.”

Sink Could Run Again

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Alex Sink (D) told the Tampa Bay Times that she is “keeping an open mind” about running against David Jolly (R) again in November.

“Two days after her narrow loss to Jolly in the special election for Congressional District 13, Sink said she has no timetable for making a decision but is in no rush to decide.”

Will 2014 Be Like 2010?

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David Wasserman: “Are Democrats up against a political environment just as bad as 2010? Not quite, at least not yet. But, at this rate, it is quite possible that Republicans net eight seats or more, which would give them their largest seat share in the House since 1928. The reason? Republicans are fighting on more favorable turf than they did in 2010, thanks to redistricting in 2012.”

“Bottom line: The results in FL-13 strongly suggest that even talented Democratic challengers may not be able to overcome turnout drop-off and Obamacare on GOP-leaning turf in 2014. And, faced with a president and signature healthcare law polling in the low 40s in most district, Democratic incumbents need to batten down the hatches sooner rather than later.”

Brown Will Announce Exploratory Bid

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Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) “will announce he is launching an exploratory committee for a run for the New Hampshire U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), the New Hampshire Union Leader reports.

“A source close to Brown confirmed the announcement is at hand, and said it will be made in Nashua, where the state Republican Party will begin its two-day Northeast Republican Leadership Conference at the Crowne Plaza Hotel.”

Brown Looking for Campaign Staff in New Hampshire

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Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) has started looking for campaign staff and courting the political elite in New Hampshire in a possible campaign against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), the AP reports.

“Brown is a longtime Massachusetts resident. But he recently relocated to his New Hampshire vacation home. He’s begun calling top New Hampshire Republicans to gauge their support. And his camp has quietly started offering paid positions to Republican operatives for a prospective Senate campaign.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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