Kyle Kondik: “The national numbers indicate that Republicans should be on the verge of big House gains. But a district-by-district analysis suggests a different story.”

“The GOP is already at close to a high-water mark in the House, and their list of truly appetizing targets is limited. Meanwhile, Democrats do not have nearly the broad playing field they had to defend in 2010, and their national third-party groups, like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC (the shadow DCCC), have a distinct dollar edge over their GOP rivals. That doesn’t mean the Democrats can overcome a poor national environment and capture the House — or even net a seat or two — but it does mean that the Democrats are decently positioned to limit their losses even if the national environment gets worse.”

Washington Post: “War in Iraq is a subject that won’t go away for Clinton, whose Senate vote in 2002 to authorize the last war in that Middle Eastern country put her out of step with the Democratic base six years later. She lost her bid for president to a challenger who, as an obscure Illinois state senator, had come down on the antiwar side.”

“Now weighing another White House run, Clinton is faced again with the problems in Iraq and her role in shaping U.S. policy in the region. The airstrikes on the Islamic State group have inflamed the Democratic left, adding another potential line of attack against her if she decides to run for the White House.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) leading challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48T to 39% among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis at 6%.

A new Keystone Report/Magellan Strategies poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Wolf (D) leading Gov. Tom Corbett (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%.

Other recent polls have shown Wolf leading by a much larger margin.

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Gov. Jerry Brown (D) holding a commanding 54% to 33% lead among likely voters over challenger Neel Kashkari (R).

A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) maintains “a stable lead” in the five-way race for governor, beating out Charlie Baker (R) by 10 points, 46% to 36%.

A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Sen. Mark Pryor (D) just ahead of challenger Tom Cotton (R), 45% to 43%, with 7% undecided.

Very interesting: “Among voters who consider health care their top issue, Pryor leads Cotton 50% to 39%”

“He’s basically furniture in the Senate, and the people in Kansas know that. You could give the average Kansan 24 hours to come up with something Pat Roberts has done in the Senate, and after 24 hours, even the crickets would be standing there befuddled.”

— GOP strategist John Weaver, quoted by the Washington Post.

First Read: “If it feels like 2002-2004 all over again due to ISIS and the U.S. military campaign against it, well, that’s also reflected on the campaign trail and in the TV ads, especially on the Republican side…”

“There are two reasons why these anti-terror messages from Republicans are beginning to pop up on the campaign trail. The first: It’s embedded in the party’s DNA. Since the beginning of the Cold War, the GOP’s first instinct has always been to assert how it’s tougher and stronger on communism/terrorism than the Democratic Party is… The second reason: Republicans want to keep the midterms a nationalized election. And so when the national conversation turns away from health care and the economy to national security, the GOP’s TV ads and campaign messages will follow. Why do they want it nationalized? Take one look at the right track/wrong track poll numbers coupled with the president’s job rating. The more local this campaign is, the less likely the GOP wins the Senate or adds to their House majority.”

Politico: “The joint appearance highlighted a reality for the current president and his former secretary of state: Her political needs aren’t always in sync with his, but more often than not their interests do align.”

“Hillary Clinton needs to keep Obama’s supporters behind her if she runs for president in 2016… Some Obama advisers, meanwhile, see Clinton as a lifeline — the best chance the lame-duck Democrat has to preserve his legacy, particularly Obamacare, after the open-seat election in 2016.”

A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) holds a 19-point lead over challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 27%.

“Can I say that without getting in trouble like Gov. Romney. The 47 percent is true. It’s bigger now.”

— Nevada congressional candidate Crescent Hardy (R), quoted by TPM.