Nate Cohn: “Republicans hold a narrow but broad advantage across this year’s governor’s contests, according to the newest round of data from The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of more than 100,000 respondents. They hold at least a nominal lead in 22 of this year’s 35 governor’s races.”

“The sizable Republican advantage is mainly a reflection of incumbency. The Republicans won 23 of 37 states in 2010, and all but three of those Republicans are running for re-election this year. The three retiring Republicans are all from red states.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “abruptly walked off stage at a gala for Middle Eastern Christians after he was booed for urging the audience to stand behind Israel and Jews,” Bloomberg reports.

Cruz was the keynote speaker at the inaugural conference of a nonprofit group called In Defense of Christians.

“Christians have no greater ally than Israel,” Cruz said, prompting a first round of jeering… He left the stage a short time later, telling the audience “if you will not stand with Israel and the Jews, I will not stand with you. Good night and God bless.”

A new Denver Post poll in Colorado finds Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) barely ahead of challenger Bob Beauprez (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 43%.

A new Civtas poll in North Carolina finds that Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leads challenger Thom Tillis (R) in their race for the U.S. Senate, 46% to 43%.

A new Rasmussen survey finds Hagan ahead by six points, 45% to 39%.

A new Suffolk University poll in Michigan finds Gary Peters (D) leading Terri Lynn Land (R) in the U.S. Senate race by nine points, 46% to 37%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “Recent independent ads linking Terri Lynn Land to the Koch brothers appear to be working. Land’s favorability is upside-down, with a higher unfavorable rating.”

Meanwhile, the race for the governor is much tighter, with Mark Schauer (D) leading Gov. Rick Snyder (R) by two points, 45% to 43%.

“I may not run in 2016, but I’ve spent the last 20-plus months preparing. If I don’t run, it won’t be because I’m not prepared.”

— Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

First Read: “In our latest survey, women preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress by seven points, 47%-40%. Although that’s down from our previous polls and although Republicans have an ever bigger lead among men (12 points), do note that our Sept. 2010 NBC/WSJ poll showed Democrats with just a three-point edge among female voters, 46%-43%. Bottom line: Democrats holding on to the Senate will largely come down to whether they win women by double digits in November.”

“New Jersey had its credit rating cut one step by Standard & Poor’s, handing Chris Christie his eighth downgrade, the most ever for a Garden State governor,” Bloomberg reports.

“The GOP’s political machine is kicking into overdrive to save a Senate seat in Kansas that’s suddenly complicating its path to the majority,” Politico reports.

“With polls showing Sen. Pat Roberts in serious trouble against independent Greg Orman, top Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, are leaning on big-ticket donors to fill the long-time Kansas senator’s campaign coffers. Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and John McCain of Arizona are planning to barnstorm the state on Roberts’ behalf. And in a bid to boost the senator’s sagging poll numbers, the Roberts campaign is planning an ad blitz to cast his long record and seniority in Washington in a more positive light.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “is continuing to send signals that he’s running for president,” Politico reports.

“The Texas senator’s chief of staff, Chip Roy, a former top hand to Texas Gov. Rick Perry, is leaving his role as chief of staff and will play a larger role in Cruz’s political office, according to an aide with knowledge of the changes. He will gradually transition from the congressional office to serve as a senior political adviser for Cruz.”