Coming this fall: Citizens of the Green Room: Profiles in Courage and Self-Delusion by Mark Leibovich.
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Where is Terri Lynn Land?
NPR reports that Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land’s (R) “last public appearance was at a Republican dinner in Macomb County last Tuesday. Since then, nothing.”
Assessing Obamacare
Wonk Wire: Obamacare’s First Anniversary Report Card
Incumbent Governors Fear Wipeout
“As many as a dozen incumbent governors are fighting for their political lives five weeks out from Election Day — a list that includes the chief executives of states as red as Kansas and as blue as Connecticut as well as several top presidential battlegrounds,” Politico reports.
“The unsettled gubernatorial landscape has drawn a fraction of the attention of the seesawing battle for the Senate. Yet the state of play is dramatic in its own right: The fate of big-name Republicans such as Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, Florida’s Rick Scott and Michigan’s Rick Snyder are all on the line, and Democrats such as Colorado’s John Hickenlooper and Illinois’ Pat Quinn are locked in tough reelection races that could go either way.”
Ugly Fight Awaits Obama’s Attorney General Nominee
Byron York: “President Obama has a pretty obvious deadline for nominating a successor to departing Attorney General Eric Holder. If Democrats lose control of the Senate in November, they’ll still run things until newly-elected members arrive in January. So just to be safe, if the president wants guaranteed confirmation of a new attorney general, he’ll need to pick one soon. That way, even if Republicans win the Senate, and even if Obama’s choice is unpopular with the GOP, lame-duck Democrats will still be able to steamroll the opposition and confirm a new Attorney General.”
“But it could be very, very ugly.”
Assessing the Battle for the Senate
Reid Wilson: “Here’s the rough consensus on Democratic seats (the higher the rank, the more likely a seat is to change control): Montana will flip by the widest margin. West Virginia. South Dakota. Louisiana. Arkansas. Alaska. Iowa. Colorado. Michigan. North Carolina. Minnesota. Oregon (Some Democrats say North Carolina should come before Iowa and Colorado). The consensus among Republican seats: Kansas is the most likely to change control. Then Georgia. Then Kentucky.”
“The shorthand takeaway: Alaska is the Republicans’ 51st seat. If Kansas flips, it’s all about Iowa.”
Charlie Cook: “My hunch is that this is not a year when Democrats are likely to get a disproportionate share of the breaks. I’m sticking with the 60 percent chance of a Senate turnover that I’ve held for several months.”
Democrats Spend Big on Ground Game
“With a strong possibility that Democrats could lose control of the Senate in the midterm elections, they are investing heavily in voter turnout efforts,” the New York Times reports.
“In states too close to call like Alaska, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina, Democrats are making much greater investments in the ground game than Republicans.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I was talking to one of my political advisers and I said: ‘If I had to do this again, I’d insist that you literally had a camera on me at all times. I want to be reminded that this is not off the cuff.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by the New York Times, on running for president.
Is Huckabee Gearing Up for Presidential Bid?
Longtime GOP consultant Ed Rollins told the Washington Post that former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee could be a formidable presidential candidate.
Said Rollins: “Mike has always thought 2016 would be his cycle. I think he’s getting ready to go. Every sign out there is that he’s thinking hard about it.”
Quote of the Day
“As commander in chief, you’re accountable. You’re the one who is responsible whether the good ship of state is doing it right. The administration failed, and the president is the captain of the ship and should assume accountability.”
— Former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), quoted by National Journal, on President Obama claiming the CIA had “underestimated what had been taking place in Syria.”
Race for Michigan Governor Deadlocked
A new Target Insyght Poll in Michigan shows Gov. Rick Snyder (R) barely ahead of challenger Mark Schauer (D) in the race for governor, 41% to 40%, with 16% still undecided.
In the U.S. Senate race, Gary Peters (D) holds a double-digit lead over Terri Lynn Land (R), 48% to 38%.
Louisiana Tilts Towards Democrats
A new Gallup poll finds more Louisianans identify themselves as or lean Democratic (45%) than Republican (41%), a shift from the slight edge Republicans have held for past three years. The shift is likely a welcome indicator for Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) as she attempts to win her fourth term in one of this year’s most highly watched U.S. Senate races.
Clinton Heads Home to Campaign
“Former President Bill Clinton will headline a series of rallies for Arkansas Democrats next week, lending a hand in the party’s efforts to fend off a Republican takeover of his home state’s top offices in the November election,” the Arkansas Democrat Gazette reports.
Five States to Watch for 2016
“As the 2014 midterm campaigns enter the homestretch, the Republican Party needs a net gain of six seats in Senate to take back control — and of course, it doesn’t particularly matter which ones, as long as the party gets to 51. But looking down the road toward the White House race, the outcomes in specific states will be a strong indicator of the national political mood — and Republicans’ prospects — heading into 2016,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“With that in mind, here are the five states that bear the most watching: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina.”
Reid and Daschle Feud Over Senate Seat
“Simmering tensions between Harry Reid and Tom Daschle are erupting into an all-out feud,” The Hill reports.
“Daschle is expressing frustration with the Senate majority leader (D-Nev.) for refusing to endorse Rick Weiland, a former Daschle aide who is running for the South Dakota seat held by retiring Sen. Tim Johnson (D).”
Romney’s Campaign Memories
New York Times: “When you run for president twice, you tend to accumulate huge amounts of campaign souvenirs, gifts and other detritus. However elusive the ultimate prize, the trunkloads of consolation trophies endure: There are the plaques, the awards and the occasional engraved glass eagle (‘I got it for a speech or something’). Then there are the homemade portraits of the candidate, sent in by supporters. The Romneys have also saved 22 of each campaign T-shirt, button and poster — one for each of their grandchildren. From Ann’s $1,000-a-plate birthday luncheon in April 2012, they have saved the cake topping of her on horseback that was commissioned by Donald Trump.”
Supreme Court Blocks Extension of Ohio Early Voting
“The Supreme Court’s conservatives cleared the way Monday for Ohio to restrict early voting in the state, on the eve of the day it was to start,” the Washington Post reports.
“The court granted the state’s request to stay decisions of lower courts that threw out the state’s new plan, passed by the Republican-led legislature. But the court’s four liberal justices said they would have stayed out of the case and left those decisions in place.”
Rick Hasen: “I think it was a mistake to bring this Ohio case. I am not convinced that it is a significant burden on voters to cut back a week off early voting including the last Sunday. Really, if 28 days is too little early voting, what does this say about New York, with NO period of early voting?”
No Ruling on Kansas Democrats Picking Candidate
A three-judge panel “did not decide Monday whether Kansas Democrats should be required to pick a replacement for Chad Taylor (D), who dropped out of the closely contested U.S. Senate campaign against longtime incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), the Topeka Capital Journal reports.
“The court challenge seeking to force Democrats to fill the vacancy hit a stumbling block Monday when the man who filed the suit failed to show up for his day in court.”