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GOP Pushes Early Voting Efforts

September 19, 2014 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans are trying to boost their early-voting efforts after lagging behind Democrats in the past two election cycles, spending unprecedented sums at the state level and launching a national campaign to get GOP voters to cast ballots before Election Day,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“With early voting beginning Friday in three states, the GOP’s efforts have the potential to affect the outcome of close races. Campaigns that bank early votes can then spend their resources chasing supporters with less reliable voting histories, who may need a push to the polls.”

Rift Widens Between Obama and Generals

September 18, 2014 at 9:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Flashes of disagreement over how to fight the Islamic State are mounting between President Obama and U.S. military leaders, the latest sign of strain in what often has been an awkward and uneasy relationship,” the Washington Post reports.

“Even as the administration has received congressional backing for its strategy, with the Senate voting Thursday to approve a plan to arm and train Syrian rebels, a series of military leaders have criticized the president’s approach against the Islamic State militant group.”

Federal Charges Ruled Out for Christie

September 18, 2014 at 9:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The U.S. Justice Department investigation into New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s role in “Bridgegate” has thus far uncovered no information he either knew in advance or directed the closure of traffic lanes on the George Washington Bridge,” NBC News reports.

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Taylor Allowed Off Kansas Ballot

September 18, 2014 at 9:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Kansas Supreme Court issued a decision laden with political intrigue Thursday that overruled the state’s top elections officer and declared Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Chad Taylor could pull himself from the November ballot,” the Topeka Capital Journal reports.

“In the middle of a wild campaign for the seat held by three-term Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, the high court’s opinion thwarted the decision of Secretary of State Kris Kobach to prohibit Taylor’s exit from race.”

Rick Hasen: “The big unanswered question is what happens to the other statute which appears to require Democrats to replace a withdrawn candidate on the ballot.”

Gingrich Not Happy with GOP

September 18, 2014 at 12:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Newt Gingrich is not thrilled by the current state of the Republican party, Roll Call reports.

Said Gingrich: “The fact that we do not have positive themes and positive issues is going to cost us seats this fall because moderates and independents aren’t going to turn out. It’s an enormous mistake.”

He added: “You have to sound like you’re more than anti-Obama, and you’re more than some … politician whose primary role in life is to raise money for your consultant to buy attack ads. It’s pathetic … and it’s turning people off.”

Perdue Maintains Lead in Georgia

September 18, 2014 at 12:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Rasmussen survey in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) leading Michelle Nunn (D) by five points in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 41%.

Democrats Losing Support of Women Voters

September 18, 2014 at 12:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

American Interest: “The most interesting finding of a recent NYT poll on voter preferences before the midterms: The Democrats have lost their edge with women. Though the NYT write-up of the poll doesn’t mention the change, it shows up in the accompanying graph. When asked “If the 2014 election for United States House of Representatives seats were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?” women favor Democrats over Republicans by one point only, 43 to 42 percent.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

September 18, 2014 at 10:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats, we don’t win elections in Kansas. Republicans lose elections.”

— Former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), quoted by the Lawrence Journal-World.

Measuring the Strength of the Two Parties

September 18, 2014 at 10:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sean Trende and David Byler make an interesting attempt to measure the relative strength of the two political parties and find that the Republicans — despite their many problems — are not a party in decline as many assume.

Midterm Polling is Volatile

September 18, 2014 at 10:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “It’s really hard to get a handle on this year’s race because the likely-voter modeling is so divergent, even among good pollsters with good reputations. It’s ironic: In the past two weeks, we’ve seen a tremendous amount of polling, and it’s created more uncertainty that anything else.”

“That said, this year should be a reminder as to why to be leery of any political handicapping site only using released polls as their basis for prediction. These aggregation and regression analysis sites are trying to find accuracy with incredibly inaccurate data. That’s not exactly scientific.”

Scotland Votes on Independence

September 18, 2014 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The BBC rounds up the final polls and explains why polling a “yes” or “no” question is not as easy as it seems.

Carl Bialik: “For the election junkies who want to watch results as they come in, I’ve put together a guide to how early Friday morning could unfold: when the 32 local councils can be expected to report their constituents’ vote counts, what percentage of the electorate each area represents, and which way voters from each area can be expected to lean.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

September 18, 2014 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I have to say that after the events I’ve been facing over the past few days, assassination would be a welcome release.”

— British Prime Minister David Cameron, quoted by National Review.

Secret Campaign Spending Set to Break Record

September 18, 2014 at 8:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mother Jones: “A milestone passed in late August: According to the Center for Responsive Politics, dark-money groups–nonprofits created under the 501(c)(4) and (c)(6) sections of the US tax code–had by then surpassed $50 million on elections. These groups, unlike political action committees and candidates’ campaigns, do not have to disclose their donors. So some of the key players looking to sway election results remain in the shadows. This was a new record and seven times the amount of dark money spent by the same point on House and Senate elections in 2010. And this week, dark-money spending for the 2014 cycle reached $63 million–just shy of the $69 million in dark money spent during the entire 2008 presidential election.”

“Every politician knows that campaign season begins in earnest after Labor Day. If recent history is any guide, there is sure to be an unprecedented last-minute blitz of dark-money spending.”

Senate Control May Not Be Decided on Election Day

September 18, 2014 at 8:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kyle Kondik: “There are all sorts of reasons why you shouldn’t, unless in the next seven weeks one side or the other — probably the Republicans — starts opening up a clear lead in enough races to give them a clear majority. If neither side does, control of the Senate could remain up in the air — for a while.”

GOP Senate Majority Still In Doubt

September 18, 2014 at 8:38 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Karl Rove: “The president’s job approval numbers are lousy, no Democrat in a competitive Senate race polls regularly above 50%, GOP enthusiasm is high, and independents are trending Republican. The midterm environment is terrible for Democrats–yet each passing day provides evidence as to why a GOP Senate majority is still in doubt.”

On Mark Sanford’s Oversharing

September 18, 2014 at 8:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Matt Bai: “If you missed Mark Sanford’s tortured, meandering Facebook post about his various relationship and family troubles last weekend, I’m afraid you’re out of luck. The Republican Party’s Lord Byron apparently thought better of it and decided to take the post down.”

“Maybe Sanford’s sons impressed upon him that he had become the single most embarrassing parent in America. Or maybe Sanford suddenly realized that he wasn’t actually 15 and was under no compulsion to vent his conflicted emotions on social media… Or perhaps Sanford took down the post because it occurred to him, too late, that his digital soliloquy constituted a thoroughly reckless act — not just for himself or for his family, but also for all of Washington, where the last thing any of us really needed was to further erode the boundary between private lives and political careers.”

Udall Trails in Colorado

September 18, 2014 at 8:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Colorado finds Cory Gardner (R) leading Sen. Mark Udall (D) by eight points in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 48% to 40%.

How Gary Hart Forever Changed American Politics

September 18, 2014 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The New York Times excerpts Matt Bai’s forthcoming must-read book, All the Truth Is Out: The Week Politics Went Tabloid.

“The Hart episode is almost universally remembered as a tale of classic hubris. A Kennedy-like figure on a fast track to the presidency defies the media to find anything nonexemplary in his personal life, even as he carries on an affair with a woman half his age and poses for pictures with her, and naturally he gets caught and humiliated. How could he not have known this would happen? How could such a smart guy have been that stupid?”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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