A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) leading Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 44%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “The tale of independent voters tells you all you need to know about the Iowa Senate race. These independents are perhaps the most important voter bloc in the electorate and Ernst is ahead 7 percentage points among them, just about her overall lead. The key to any comeback by Braley will be chipping away at her lead among independents.”

The RCP polling average shows the race is a toss up.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Colorado shows Bob Beauprez (R) with a double-digit lead over Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in the race for governor, 50% to 40%.

A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds Republicans hold a six-point edge in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters, 45% to 39%.

New York Times: “Events overseas have undermined Democrats’ strategy to tie their midterm prospects to an economic theme that includes calls for a higher minimum wage, reducing income inequality, pay equity for women and help with college tuition. Instead, the public and Congress have been overwhelmed this summer by a border crisis, an Ebola outbreak in Africa and, most notably, the terrorist threat from the Islamic State, also known by the acronym ISIS.”

“Democrats, pointing to President Obama’s effectiveness in drawing an economic contrast with the Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 and to the 2006 midterm races in which they took over the House and the Senate, still believe the strategy is sound.”

Vice President Joe Biden “will help kick off a 10-state voter turnout tour for a liberal group called ‘Nuns on the Bus’ today with an outdoor event on the west terrace of the Iowa Capitol,” the Des Moines Register reports.

“For the nation’s first Catholic vice president, this is a chance to attach himself with religious leaders who embrace a message on economic equality that syncs with his soul… Still, this is Iowa. The political implications are ever-present.”

A new Sienna College poll in New York’s 11th congressional district finds Rep. Michael Grimm (R), despite being under federal indictment, is locked in a tight battle against challenger Domenic Recchia (D), 44% to 40%.

“If Democrats cling to their Senate majority this fall, it will be in large part because of a well-funded group connected to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) that has helped build a formidable firewall around vulnerable incumbents,” the Washington Post reports.

“Senate Majority PAC, fueled by billionaires and labor unions, has been the biggest-spending super PAC of the 2014 midterm contests. Together with an allied tax-exempt group, Patriot Majority, the pro-Democratic effort has poured at least $36 million into ads and voter outreach… The groups’ early, aggressive presence in pivotal Senate races spotlights how, four years after being dramatically outgunned in the outside money game, Democrats are now some of its most adept players.”

Daily Beast: “The list of pundits, political analysts, and numbers-crunchers who are predicting Republicans will win control of the Senate in November is long, including Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight. The folks at The New York Times’ The Upshot are saying it could be a tie. But Sam Wang of Princeton stands almost alone in forecasting that the Democrats will just barely hold their Senate majority.”

Wang’s latest forecast finds Democrats have a 78% chance of holding control of the Senate.

Patricia Murphy: “One of the most persistent myths in politics — that women shy away from campaigns because they don’t ‘have the stomach’ for fundraising –is taking a beating this election cycle as women have emerged as top money makers, both for their own campaigns and on behalf of other candidates and national campaign committees.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leading challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 40%.

Based on oral arguments, Rick Hasen thinks it is likely the Kansas Supreme Court will quickly issue an order removing Chad Taylor’s (D) name from the ballot. The decision would be a big blow to Sen. Pat Roberts (R) who is fighting a challenge from Greg Orman (I).

A new poll shows Taylor still receiving 6% of the vote in the Kansas U.S. Senate race even though he’s no longer campaigning and wants off the ballot.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida finds Gov. Rick Scott (R) with a 5 point lead over challenger Charlie Crist (D), 44% to 39%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie at 7% and 9% still undecided.

“Pat Quinn is not the folksy, bumbling fool he’d like us to think he is. He knows what he’s doing. He knows what he’s done.”

— Illinois gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner (R), quoted by the Chicago Sun Times.

First Read: “Looking at the president’s schedule this week, you’d be hard pressed to know that a major national election is just seven weeks away. It’s painfully obvious that the White House has concluded that the best political assistance they can provide Democrats is for the president to go be president. And so this week, he’s clearly embracing the commander-in-chief title, even when it comes to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.”

“So with exactly seven weeks until the midterm elections and with the president’s approval ratings stuck in the low 40s (mid- to high 30s in many of the battlegrounds), Obama brandishing his commander-in-chief credentials also might be the best way for the White House to assist Democrats this fall.”

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) told TPM that he’s considering a White House bid.

Said Jindal: “It is true. There’s no reason to be coy. I am thinking, I am praying about whether I’ll run in 2016. I said I won’t make that decision until after November.”