First Read: “It’s really hard to get a handle on this year’s race because the likely-voter modeling is so divergent, even among good pollsters with good reputations. It’s ironic: In the past two weeks, we’ve seen a tremendous amount of polling, and it’s created more uncertainty that anything else.”

“That said, this year should be a reminder as to why to be leery of any political handicapping site only using released polls as their basis for prediction. These aggregation and regression analysis sites are trying to find accuracy with incredibly inaccurate data. That’s not exactly scientific.”

Kyle Kondik: “There are all sorts of reasons why you shouldn’t, unless in the next seven weeks one side or the other — probably the Republicans — starts opening up a clear lead in enough races to give them a clear majority. If neither side does, control of the Senate could remain up in the air — for a while.”

Karl Rove: “The president’s job approval numbers are lousy, no Democrat in a competitive Senate race polls regularly above 50%, GOP enthusiasm is high, and independents are trending Republican. The midterm environment is terrible for Democrats–yet each passing day provides evidence as to why a GOP Senate majority is still in doubt.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Colorado finds Cory Gardner (R) leading Sen. Mark Udall (D) by eight points in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 48% to 40%.

Monica Wehby’s (R) U.S. Senate campaign “acknowledged problems with plagiarism in some of her issue documents and removed them from her website,” the Oregonian reports.

“Her campaign blamed a former staffer, and it was clear from the context that Wehby and her aides were referring to her former campaign manager, Charlie Pearce, who is now running Dennis Richardson’s campaign for governor.”

“Emails sent by liberal activists and obtained by The Hill reveal significant dissatisfaction with Hillary Clinton, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016.”

“The critical messages about the former first lady show that she has a long way to go to assuage skepticism from influential voices on the left. The Hill reviewed hundreds of emails from a progressive members only Google group called the ‘Gamechanger Salon,’ a forum where nearly 1,500 activists, strategists and journalists debate issues and craft messaging campaigns.”

A new Denno Research poll in Michigan finds that Gary Peters (D) had a solid lead over Terri Lynn Land (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 38%.

In the race for governor, Mark Shauer (D) edges Gov. Rick Snyder (R), 43% to 40%.