A new Pan Atlantic SMS poll in Maine finds Gov. Paul LePage (R) leads challenger Mike Michaud (D) in the race for governor, 39% to 34%, with Eliot Cutler (I) at 20%.

A new Rasmussen survey shows LePage leading Michaud, 41% to 40%, with Cutler at 16%.

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) told David Brody that challenger Greg Orman (I) is lying about how he’ll vote in the Senate but says he’ll be exposed “when we get through with him.”

Said Roberts: “Not when we get through with him. This is a person who by donation and by his stand on the issues is a liberal Democrat.”

Meanwhile, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told KSHB-TV that Orman will not be allowed to caucus with Republicans if he wins: “He’s not gonna do that. It is an impossibility. It is not possible.”

CNN: “Four weeks away from the 2014 midterm elections and even some Democratic operatives struggle to imagine a scenario where they retain control of the U.S. Senate. The terrain and current momentum seem all but overwhelming and against them.”

Washington Post: “For months, the 2014 midterm election has looked like a deck stacked in favor of Republicans. But as campaign season heads into its final weeks, some wild cards are now on the table in states where the GOP had been expecting easy victories on its way to gaining six seats for control of the Senate.”

Larry Pressler (I) told The Hill that he won’t say who he’d caucus with if he wins his independent U.S. Senate race in South Dakota but said that if elected, he’d be a “friend of Obama.”

He also confirmed voting for Obama twice: “I don’t regret those votes, ’cause on that day, that’s how I felt.”

Former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), who left Congress after being shot in the head by a gunman at a constituent event, put out a powerful new ad for Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ).

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Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) “will be spending at least five days in the New Hampshire in October alone,” WMUR reports.

“For the most part Sanders seems to be doing the college town circuit this month. He is hoping to both get Democratic voters excited to vote on Nov. 4 and introduce himself at the same time… Sanders has already been to the state four times exploring a run for president.”

A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) can’t manage to pull away from Michelle Nunn (D) in the race for Senate and leads by just one point, 46% to 45%.

Key finding: “Nunn holds an exceptionally high 87% of the Democratic base. That is the only way she can remain competitive in a contest where, today, independents break nearly 5:3 for her Republican opponent.”

In the race for governor, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) leads challenger Jason Carter (D) by just two points, 46% to 44%

A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire shows Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (R) leading challenger Scott Brown (R) by six points among likely voters, 47% to 41%.

A new CNN/ORC International poll in Alaska finds Dan Sullivan (R) leading Sen. Mark Begich (D) by six points in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 44%.

A new University of North Florida poll finds Charlie Crist (D) with a 5 percentage point lead over Gov. Rick Scott in the race for Florida governor, 47% to 42%.

“In what appears to be a significant October campaign shakeup, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is replacing her campaign manager and bringing on her former chief of staff as a senior adviser,” Politico reports.

Joe Klein: “Democrats are swimming against the prevailing cynicism as they attempt to retain the Senate this year. Across the South, their candidates are placing a heavy bet on women’s issues, especially equal pay, and education. In some places, like North Carolina, where a traditional emphasis on education spending has been violated by the Republican state legislature, they have a chance to win….The hurdle is Barack Obama, about whom the crazy rumors are–still!–thick, and the ads are constant…”

“There is also an undercurrent of fear–about ISIS and Ebola–that does not help the Democrats. Most of the people I talked with don’t think this federal government is competent to handle anything. And there is an undercurrent of exhaustion, especially among Democrats who have talked themselves silly trying to dispel the rumor fog that has engulfed political discourse. These are stories that stick in the mind and rot the body politic. They are a dominant political currency, and not just in the South.”

Gallup: “Turnout in the midterm elections this fall could be lower than in the past two midterm elections, based on current voter engagement. On each of three indicators of voter engagement in midterm elections — how much thought Americans have given to them, their expressed motivation to vote, and their enthusiasm about voting compared with past elections — 2014 looks more like lower-turnout years 1998 and 2002 than higher-turnout years 2006 and 2010.”

Adam Smith: “For most of the past year, my gut has told me that Rick Scott would likely win a second term and that there was a reasonable likelihood it wouldn’t even be close… Now I’m thinking Crist may have become the clear frontrunner.”

“I have just seen an internal poll of likely voters in Florida House 36, the west Pasco County district currently represented by Democrat Amanda Murphy and formerly represented by Republican Mike Fasano. District 36, loaded with working class Floridians and retirees may be the single best bellwether state House district in Florida. Barack Obama narrowly won it in 2008 and 2012, and Rick Scott narrowly won it in 2010. The telephone poll was taken Monday and Tuesday by the Democratic firm SEA Polling & Strategic Design (which nailed it on Murphy’s special election win in 2013) and found 45 percent planning to vote for Crist, 37 percent for Scott, and 14 percent for Libertarian Adrian Wyllie. In August, the firm showed Scott leading by five points, with 43 percent support to 38 percent for Crist and 10 percent for Wyllie.”