Romney Knew He Would Lose

Despite reports after the 2012 election that Mitt Romney’s campaign team was surprised they lost, John Sides reports in his new book, The Gamble, that the Romney campaign’s own internal data showed that it would lose.

“One senior Romney strategist told us that his simulations based on the campaign’s internal polls gave Romney an 18% chance of winning by the end. This same strategist told us that these simulations never showed Romney being more likely to win than Obama, even after the first debate when the polls narrowed.”

Interestingly, 270 to Win also gave Romney a 18.1% chance to win.