Political Wire

Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, trending news, a private podcast, no ads and more!

Split Power is the New Normal

January 7, 2015 at 10:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Morning Line: “President Obama is not alone. Every president in the last 50 years, save Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson, has experienced at least one session of Congress in which the opposing party controlled both chambers of Congress. In total, 16 presidents have been in this position.”

“In U.S. history, the president’s party has been in the minority in both houses during only 24 of the 114 sessions of Congress. But 16 of those sessions came in the last 70 years, after the death of President Franklin Roosevelt. In other words, it is now par for the course for a modern-day president to have to compromise with the other party to get much of anything done in Washington.”

Christie’s Chances in 2016 are Overrated

January 7, 2015 at 10:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

Nate Silver: The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza has New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the second most likely Republican presidential nominee after Rand Paul. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato lists Christie as one of the top four candidates, along with Paul, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. And the betting market BetFair had Christie as the fourth most likely as of midmorning Tuesday.”

“These assessments seem much too bullish; Christie has three fundamental problems that are likely to prevent him from becoming the GOP’s candidate. It might be possible to overcome any one of these, but two is very difficult and three is almost impossible.”

Disclosure Laws May Limit Small Donors

January 7, 2015 at 8:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

Political scientist Ray La Raja finds that laws requiring public disclosure of small campaign donations may lead to fewer people contributing and smaller donations.

“The findings demonstrate that transparency does, in fact, have a chilling effect on participation. And the impact is especially salient for citizens who are cross-pressured.”

How One Political Story Gets Told Differently

When a major news event breaks, it’s often covered by dozens — sometimes hundreds — of outlets. But the framing isn’t the same. Some headlines amplify outrage. Others minimize it. And some stories barely register on one side of the political spectrum at all.

That’s exactly why I chose to partner with Ground News.

As someone who spends every day immersed in political coverage, I wanted a tool that helps cut through narrative spin — not add to it. Ground News makes those differences visible.

For any major story, you can see how many sources are covering it, whether coverage skews left or right, and how headlines change depending on the outlet. Side-by-side comparisons reveal gaps and blind spots you’d otherwise miss.

If you want to understand how political news is being framed — not just what happened — Ground News is genuinely useful.

Get 40% off a Ground News Vantage subscription -- the same one I use -- for a limited time just by using my link.

Vermont Still Hasn’t Picked a Governor

January 7, 2015 at 8:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

Burlington Free Press: “A provision in the state’s founding document says that if no candidate for governor, lieutenant governor or treasurer receives an outright majority of the vote — 50 percent plus one ballot — lawmakers decide the outcome by secret ballot two months later when they convene in January.”

“In a seven-candidate field on Nov. 4, Gov. Peter Shumlin got 46.4 percent of the vote, compared with 45.1 for Republican Scott Milne… But against long odds, Milne is taking his fight to a Legislature dominated by Shumlin’s fellow Democrats. He is urging lawmakers to vote as their constituents did in each district, which could result in a 90-90 tie when secret ballots cast by the 150 House members and 30 senators are counted.”

Bush Forces Christie to Make Move Earlier

January 7, 2015 at 8:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Jeb Bush’s aggressive entrance in the GOP presidential race “has sped up the timing of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is preparing to make a public move toward running at the end of this month rather than waiting until February or March,” the Washington Post reports.

First Read: “Oh, and there’s one more consequence of Jeb’s early — and obvious — presidential maneuvers: You haven’t heard another peep about Mitt Romney. Indeed, the first real victim of the Jeb-in-waiting campaign has been Romney; no one is talking about him anymore. The folks who were most intrigued about a third Romney run where big donors; and those donors like Jeb… in some cases, like Jeb.. A LOT.”

Bill to Allow Pence to Run for Two Offices Stalls

January 7, 2015 at 8:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

Indiana’s top legislative Republicans said that a bill allowing Gov. Mike Pence (R) to run for the White House and governor on the same ticket is unlikely to be approved this year, the Indianapolis Star reports.

Carson Plagiarized Multiple Sources for Book

January 7, 2015 at 7:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard 38 Comments

Several sections of potential Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson’s 2012 book America the Beautiful were plagiarized from various sources, BuzzFeed News reports.

“In many cases Carson cites the works that he plagiarizes in endnotes, though he makes no effort to indicate that not just the source, but the words themselves, had been taken from different authors.”

Most Think National Problems Won’t Be Addressed

January 7, 2015 at 7:48 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

A new Pew Research poll finds that “76% of those who cited a top national problem said they did not think progress would be made by President Obama and GOP leaders to address the problem they mentioned.”

“And there, at least, was one point of partisan agreement. That dim view was shared by 78% of Republicans, 71% of Democrats and 80% of independents.”

Lawmaker Explains Why He Didn’t Try to Oust Boehner

January 7, 2015 at 7:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-SC) on Facebook: “There was an attempt to oust John Boehner as Speaker of the House today. I didn’t participate in it. That may make some people back home angry. I understand that, but I’ve got some experience with coup attempts against the Speaker, and what I learned two years ago factored heavily in my decision today not to join the mutiny.”

“First, I learned two years ago that people lie about how they are going to vote. And you cannot go into this kind of fight with people you do not trust. We walked onto the floor two years ago with signed pledges – handwritten promises – from more than enough people to deny Boehner his job. But when it came time to vote, almost half of those people changed their minds – including some of those who voted against Boehner today. Fool me once, shame on you… I also learned that the Floor of the House is the wrong place to have this battle.”

Boehner Gets Revenge

January 7, 2015 at 7:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

Politico: “After he secured his third term as speaker Tuesday afternoon, losing 25 votes on the House floor to some relative-unknown members of the Republican Conference, Boehner moved swiftly to boot two of the insurgents from the influential Rules Committee. That could be just the start of payback for the speaker’s betrayers, who might see subcommittee chairmanships and other perks fall away in the coming months.”

Clinton Begins to Build Campaign Team

January 7, 2015 at 7:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

“Hillary Clinton is beginning to put together the pieces for a likely campaign, tapping two top strategists — including President Obama’s pollster — to work with her in the lead-up toward an ultimate decision,” Politico reports.

“Robby Mook, who worked on Clinton’s 2008 campaign and is widely expected to be Clinton’s campaign manager, and Joel Benenson, Obama’s pollster who had for months been eyed for a role on her team, have been working with her as she makes a final decision and begins to put together a framework for a staff.”

Congress Sets Up Major Fight Over Social Security

January 7, 2015 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“Buried in new rules that will govern the House for the next two years is a provision that could force an explosive battle over Social Security’s finances on the eve of the 2016 presidential election,” the AP reports.

“Social Security’s disability program has been swamped by aging baby boomers, and unless Congress acts, the trust fund that supports it is projected to run dry in late 2016. At that point, the program will collect only enough payroll taxes to pay 81 percent of benefits… To shore up the disability program, Congress could redirect payroll taxes from Social Security’s much larger retirement fund — as it has done in the past. However, the House adopted a rule Tuesday blocking such a move, unless it is part of a larger plan to improve Social Security’s finances, by either cutting benefits or raising taxes.”

“If Congress doesn’t act, benefits for 11 million disabled workers, spouses and children would be automatically cut by 19 percent.”

House Adopts New Math Rules

January 7, 2015 at 6:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

“House Republicans on Tuesday formally adopted a controversial change to congressional math rules that will most likely make it easier to cut taxes,” Politico reports.

“In one of the first acts of the 114th Congress, Republicans in a largely party-line vote of 234-172 approved the rules ordering lawmakers’ budget referees to incorporate the economic effects of legislation into their cost estimates — known as dynamic scoring.”

Jonathan Chait: “The whole reason the Republican Congress is instituting dynamic scoring comes as a response to its attempt to write a tax reform bill last year. The idea was to lower tax rates while eliminating loopholes and preferences. But Republicans discovered that, while lowering rates is easy, eliminating preferences is hard.”

Boehner Puts Down Another Intra-Party Rebellion

January 6, 2015 at 4:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

“In a dramatic vote in which Republican dissidents staged yet another unsuccessful coup attempt, Speaker John A. Boehner was elected to a third term as speaker of the House,” Roll Call reports.

“Boehner won re-election with 216 of the 408 votes cast, as 25 Republicans voted for someone else or voted present in an act of protest. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi received 164 Democratic votes, with four members of her party voting for someone other than the California Democrat.”

Reid Is Still Fighting

January 6, 2015 at 4:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) offered video remarks on the opening of Congress:

Return of the ‘Compassionate Conservative’

January 6, 2015 at 3:50 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

Mark Murray notes that Jeb Bush’s mission statement for his new PAC strikingly sounds a lot like his brother George W. Bush’s “Compassionate Conservative” platform during his 2000 presidential campaign.

“So if Jeb Bush’s outline is any guide, you could expect his domestic goals and platforms to look similar to his brother’s. Of course, this raises the question whether this is what today’s Republican Party and conservative movement want – a question that probably won’t be decided at least a year from now.”

McDonnell Sentenced to Two Years in Prison

January 6, 2015 at 3:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 33 Comments

Former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) was sentenced to two years in prison today, the Richmond Times Dispatch reports.

“McDonnell cast his eyes downward as Spencer announced the sentence. Family and friends broke into tears. The sentencing came after a parade of character witnesses and McDonnell’s own statement to the court.”

“McDonnell could have been sentenced to a longer term — earlier Spencer lowered the sentencing guideline range from more than 10 years to six and a half years to eight years and a month. But the judge is also allowed to sentenced above and below the guideline.”

Rubio’s Book Has a New Immigration Plan

January 6, 2015 at 2:22 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) “won’t apologize for attempting to pass a comprehensive immigration bill that included a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. But he will, in the run-up to a potential presidential campaign, offer a new, pared-down, conservative-friendly approach to immigration reform,” National Journal reports.

The plan is contained in American Dreams, which is to be released on January 13.