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Odds Tilt Towards Republicans Taking Senate

June 26, 2014 at 7:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans are in the strongest position to win back the Senate since losing it eight years ago,” The Hill reports.

“Over several months, the party has expanded its range of targeted seats, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has helped defeat insurgents it didn’t want representing the GOP in the midterm elections. This sober realization came to Democrats on Wednesday, as Tuesday night’s primary results showed they cannot count on Tea Party candidates upsetting more-electable incumbents.”

The Upshot forecast gives Republicans a 58% chance of taking control of the Senate.

Wonk Wire: How a Republican Senate could tinker with Obamacare

A More Nuanced View of Supreme Court Ideology

June 26, 2014 at 7:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“This is the time of year that the news media roll out a familiar graphic: Nine head shots of Supreme Court justices, arrayed from most liberal to most conservative,” the New York Times reports.

“In spacing the head shots at equal intervals, the graphics suggest a steady procession from left to right. But the reality is a series of clusters, a few loners and several telling gaps.”

The Cost of Crushing the Tea Party

June 26, 2014 at 7:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“National Republican leaders are toasting primary season as a smashing success over activist conservatives that has put the hard right on the ropes and given the Washington GOP the slate of candidates it wanted for 2014,” Politico reports.

“Those victories, however, have come at a staggering cost — and Republicans are painfully aware of the price of putting down an intraparty insurrection. Establishment-aligned groups have already spent some $23 million on independent expenditures propping up favored House and Senate candidates in contentious primaries… By comparison, Republican nominees raised and spent that amount in the 2012 North Dakota, Indiana and Nevada Senate races combined — three of the most competitive campaigns fought that year.”


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The Scott Walker Investigation is Bigger Than Scott Walker

June 26, 2014 at 7:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“An investigation targeting Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) for alleged illegal coordination with independent conservative groups during his 2012 recall election has been thrown into limbo by a lawsuit that could turn into the next big challenge to campaign finance limits,” the Huffington Post reports.

“The case has the potential to blow a hole in anti-coordination rules in Wisconsin and beyond — a hole that would effectively wipe away campaign contribution limits by allowing candidates to control the unlimited and secret contributions raised by not-really-independent groups.”

Quote of the Day

June 26, 2014 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It doesn’t matter what liberals call these payments, it is welfare, pure and simple. Liberals from the White House all the way down to Democratic leadership in Augusta believe that redistribution of wealth – taking money from hard-working taxpayers and giving it to a growing number of welfare recipients – is personal income. It’s not.”

— Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R), quoted by the Portland Press Herald, saying Social Security is a welfare program.

Tea Party Hasn’t Lost Clout Despite Losses

June 26, 2014 at 5:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Wall Street Journal notes the “disconnect between tea-party election losses and the movement’s continued power in Washington underscores deep divisions inside the GOP that show no sign of abating after a busy spring in which so-called establishment candidates won far more intraparty contests than they lost.”

“The GOP leadership, for example, benefited from millions of dollars in campaign spending by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to promote leadership-backed candidates in nearly a dozen primaries, part of a broad effort to stem tea party momentum. And yet three of the Chamber’s top legislative priorities–an overhaul of immigration law, a replenished Highway Trust Fund and reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank–are in jeopardy because of conservative resistance in Congress.”

Collins Backs Same-Sex Marriage

June 26, 2014 at 5:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) “announced her support for same-sex marriage for the first time Wednesday, hours after the nation’s largest gay-rights group endorsed her for re-election this year over Shenna Bellows (D), a longtime advocate of gay couples’ right to marry,” the Portland Press Herald reports.

“Collins had previously declined to reveal where she stood personally, saying the issue was best handled at the state level.”

Brownback Trails in Kansas

June 25, 2014 at 9:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Survey USA poll in Kansas finds Paul Davis (D) leading Gov. Sam Brownback (R) in the race for governor, 47% to 41%, with Liberarian Keen Umbehr at 5%.

Snyder Fires Intern Who Tried to Infiltrate Rival Campaign

June 25, 2014 at 5:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder’s (R) re-election campaign “has parted ways with an intern who tried to volunteer for Democratic challenger Mark Schauer in an apparent attempt to infiltrate the rival campaign,” MLive reports.

Federal Court Says Gay Marriage Bans are Unconstitutional

June 25, 2014 at 5:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A federal appeals court ruled that states outlawing same-sex marriage are in violation of the U.S. Constitution, the Salt Lake Tribune reports.

“By upholding a Utah judge’s decision, a three-member panel of the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver became the first appeals court in the nation to rule on the issue, setting a historic precedent that voter-approved bans on same-sex marriage violate the Fourteenth Amendment rights of same-sex couples to equal protection and due process.”

“But the court immediately stayed the implementation of its decision, pending an anticipated appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Supreme Court Protects Privacy of Cell Phones

June 25, 2014 at 5:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In a sweeping victory for privacy rights in the digital age, the Supreme Court on Wednesday unanimously ruled that the police need warrants to search the cellphones of people they arrest,” the New York Times reports.

“While the decision will offer protection to the 12 million people arrested every year, many for minor crimes, its impact will most likely be much broader. The ruling almost certainly also applies to searches of tablet and laptop computers, and its reasoning may apply to searches of homes and businesses and of information held by third parties like phone companies.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

June 25, 2014 at 11:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If Republicans are going to act like Democrats, what’s the use in getting all gung ho about getting other Republicans in there?”

— Sarah Palin, in an interview on Fox News.

On Wonk Wire

June 25, 2014 at 11:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Some great clicks over at Wonk Wire:

  • How A Republican Senate Could Tinker With Obamacare
  • A Poison Pill in EPA Ruling That Could Contaminate Obamacare Rulings
  • Obamacare’s Year Two Dilemma: How Will States Pay for Their Exchanges?
  • Big Cities Suffer in States That Rejected Obamacare Medicaid Expansion
  • Mixed Results for Opportunity in America
  • Another Obamacare Attack Fizzles
  • Another Dip in U.S. Economic Confidence Index

Cuban Voters Shift Towards Democrats

June 25, 2014 at 10:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research survey finds that 47% of Cuban registered voters nationwide now say they identify with or lean toward the Republican Party — down from the 64% who said the same about the GOP a decade ago.

Meanwhile, the share of Cubans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has doubled from 22% to 44% over the same time period.

Bonus Quote of the Day

June 25, 2014 at 9:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I’m going to do everything I can for you, buddy. Even if that means I don’t come around.”

— Tom Tancredo (R), quoted by the Denver Post, conceding the GOP gubernatorial primary to Bob Beauprez (R).

What is a Republican These Days?

June 25, 2014 at 9:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Erick Erickson: “The problem for those who call themselves Republicans is that it is harder and harder to say exactly what a Republican is these days. The great lesson from Mississippi is that Republican means, more or less, that if elected the party will reward its major donors, who are just different than the Democrats’ major donors. Policy differences are about different donors, not an actual agenda to shift the country in a different direction.”

“I continue to oppose a third party. I’m just not sure what the Republican Party really stands for any more other than telling Obama no and telling our own corporate interests yes. That’s not much of a platform.”

Brown Holds Big Early Lead in California

June 25, 2014 at 9:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Field Poll in California shows Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading challenger Neel Kashkari (R) in the race for governor by 20 points, 52% to 32%.

Conversation with David Wasserman

June 25, 2014 at 8:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report joins us on the Political Wire podcast for a deep dive into how House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) lost his seat in an upset by Tea Party challenger David Brat (R).

Listen here:

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or RSS to get episodes automatically downloaded.

Speak thanks to Brain HQ and Stamps.com for sponsoring this episode. Use those links for great listener discounts.

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Lay on the Table: In a legislative context, to “lay on the table” refers to the action of temporarily postponing consideration of a motion or bill.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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