“I believe in being a happy conservative.”
— House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), in an interview with David Brody.
On Wonk Wire
Why the Battle for the Senate Matters
Morning Line: “It’s easy to dismiss this election and say it doesn’t matter all that much, because there will be continued gridlock. And in a lot of ways, because of the 60 vote threshold to pass almost any legislation, that’s true. But here are two reasons why the election does matter: (1) this is an obvious one, but it’s about tone and power positioning. For the first two years of the Obama presidency, Washington was dominated by Democrats. Then one piece shifted to Republicans with their taking the House after the 2010 midterms. Obama was re-elected in 2012 and Democrats held the Senate but now that is threatened. If Republicans take the Senate, it will be a further erosion of this president’s leverage in his last two years. (2) A more practical and overlooked area is judges. When Majority Leader Harry Reid changed the rules to require just just a simple majority to fill lower court vacancies, this president has been able to fast track his nominees. If Republicans control the chamber, it will be much harder for this president to get them through.”
Said Jeff Greenfield: “With control over the Senate machinery and all committees, I’m not sure Obama could put a single federal judge on the bench-not to mention the end of whatever domestic agenda he might have.”
Tierney in Tight Primary Fight
Three new polls — from Emerson College, Public Policy Polling and Remington Research — find Rep. John Tierney (D-MA) in an unexpectedly tight primary race with challenger Seth Moulton (D).
Reed Will Raise Money for Carter
Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (D) “says he will host a fundraiser for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jason Carter later this month. Reed divulged the plan exclusively to 11Alive News, ending an impasse in one of the year’s most unlikely political dramas.”
Said Reed: “I said that I was going to support the nominee of the party and I’m getting ready to do more for Jason Carter more than he ever did for me.”
Gay Marriage Ruling Could Open 2016 Door for Portman
Cleveland Plain Dealer: “He could be hailed as farsighted, a serious leader who opened his party’s doors for all people and generations. Rob Portman could be the Republican Party’s first post-gay-marriage presidential candidate.”
“Social conservatives say a Portman presidency, let alone candidacy, cannot happen for that very reason – that Republicans will vote in primaries to reject someone who flipped on gay marriage. Social conservatives see the issue as fundamental to their values.”
“Yet several forces, political as well as demographic, may converge to render a presidential candidacy by Portman, the Ohio Republican U.S. senator, as at least nominally viable. Key to this is the fact that a Portman candidacy could align with a U.S. Supreme Court decision that would end the legal and constitutional fight over same-sex marriage. Such a ruling could come by next summer, well before the Republican voters go to the first 2016 caucuses and primaries.”
Where Paul Ryan Thinks
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) told the Washington Examiner that many of the ideas in his new book, The Way Forward: Renewing the American Idea, “came to him while sitting in a tiny tree stand, bow hunting for deer in rural Wisconsin.”
Said Ryan: “A lot of it actually came from that. It is hard to explain to people who aren’t hunters. It is very peaceful, very cathartic. It really is pretty much the only ‘me time’ I have anymore and it just helps you clear your mind.”
The Richest Members of Congress
Roll Call has its annual list of the 50 richest members of Congress.
Nagin to Report to Prison
Former New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin “was due to report to federal prison on Monday to begin serving a 10-year sentence for corruption during the years when the city was struggling to recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina,” Reuters reports.
Politics of Terror Returns
“The politics of terrorism have returned with a vengeance for the midterm elections,” The Hill reports.
“National security dominated the first election cycles after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, with Democrats fearful of being labeled unpatriotic if they criticized then-President George W. Bush. The Republican advantage eroded years later as public opinion soured against the Iraq War. By the time President Obama sought reelection in 2012, he was able to tout the killing of Osama bin Laden to portray Democrats as the party of strength in foreign policy.”
“But now, with the 13th anniversary of 9/11 just days away, Obama and the Democrats are back on the defensive.”
How the GOP Can Win the Senate
The AP lists five ways the GOP can win control of the U.S. Senate in the midterm elections.
Supporters of Scottish Independence Take Lead
A new YouGov poll finds “supporters of Scottish independence from Britain have taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began, indicating a real possibility that they might win.”
“With less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 18 vote, the poll put the ‘Yes’ to independence campaign on 51% against ‘no’ camp on 49%, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist campaign in just a month.”
Romney Foreign Policy Team Stays Together
Josh Rogin: “Early in 2013, leaders of the foreign policy team that guided presidential candidate Mitt Romney regrouped under a new banner and began working to influence lawmakers and potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates, keeping their work secret.”
“Now the ‘John Hay Initiative,’ a nonprofit organization named after the private secretary to Abraham Lincoln who eventually rose to be Teddy Roosevelt’s secretary of state, is planning its first public event, a national security speech by 2016 hopeful Sen. Marco Rubio on September 17 in Washington.”
Romney Says He Would Have Been Better
Mitt Romney said there’s “no question” he would’ve been a better president than President Obama, The Hill reports.
Said Romney: “I think the president is really out of touch with reality with what’s going on in the world.”
Obama Will Lay Out Strategy to Defeat Islamic State
President Obama “will lay out plans this week for expanding the U.S. military campaign against the extremist group Islamic State, including the possibility of airstrikes on the militants in their Syrian strongholds,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“His appeal for support to a divided Congress and a doubtful American public comes as the U.S. military is broadening its month-old campaign of air attacks against the Sunni fighters in Iraq. An intense barrage of Americans airstrikes on Sunday hit militants trying to seize control of the strategic Haditha Dam in Iraq’s Sunni heartland northwest of Baghdad.”
New York Times: “The planned speech suggests that the president may be moving closer to a decision on whether to expand the month-old air campaign against ISIS in Iraq into Syria, and it is Mr. Obama’s latest attempt to answer critics who charge that he lacks a viable plan or the fortitude to go after the group.”
Maureen McDonnell Predicted Jail
Six months before Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) and his wife Maureen were charged with public corruption, the Washington Post reports the first lady made a stark prediction to her manicurist: “Her husband would go to jail, she said, and it would all be her fault.”
“In December, prosecutors offered to let the former governor plead guilty to just one count of lying to a bank. Maureen McDonnell would avoid charges entirely. He flatly declined, refusing to plead guilty to a crime he has said he did not commit… Maureen McDonnell has told friends and supporters that he declined the deal without consulting her.”
Cruz Says Instability May Inspire Him to Run for President
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) hinted in an interview that “growing instability around the world could help convince him to run for president in 2016,” Politico reports.
Said Cruz: “It increases my interest in doing everything I can to change the direction we’re on. The American people in 2014 and also November 2016 are going to be looking for leaders who want to work to restore America’s leadership in the world.”
Clear Path to Senate Majority Opens for Republicans
Nate Silver: “Pollsters are picking up the pace after a slow start in this midterm election season… The bottom line is not much has changed. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives Republicans a 65.1% chance of winning the Senate with the new polling added, similar to the 63.5% chance that our previous forecast gave them on Friday.”
“But the path to a Republican majority is becoming a little clearer — and the problem for Democrats is that it runs through six deeply red states.”
Meanwhile, The Upshot gives Republicans a 61% chance of taking the Senate.
