Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse: “Democrats like to accuse Republicans of being bad at science, but in fact we’re really bad at math. Winning in a non-presidential-turnout year, when older and white voters make up a larger percentage of the electorate, should convince no one that we’ve fixed our basic shortfalls with key electoral groups, including minorities and younger voters.”

“Assuming that the Democrats replicate their 2012 electoral success with minority voters two years from now, and assuming that Hispanics grow as a percentage of the overall electorate, which they will, we calculate that Democrats will already have almost half (24 percent) of the votes they need to win a majority of Americans in 2016. To win 50.1 percent of the popular vote, we estimate, Republicans will need nearly 64 percent of the white vote — which would be a record for a non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate. Remember, Mitt Romney and John McCain won 59 percent and 55 percent of the white vote, respectively; and even in victory, George W. Bush took only 58 percent of the white vote in 2004.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading challenger Mary Burke (D)by just one point, 48% to 47%.

“Convicted killer Nikko Jenkins offered his take on the race in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District at a hearing to determine his mental status Wednesday,” KETV reports.

Shouted Jenkins: “Hey you guys, vote for Lee Terry! Best Republican ever!”

“Democrats had called for the removal of commercials by the National Republican Campaign Committee, one of which shows a photo of Jenkins and claims Terry’s challenger, Brad Ashford, ‘supported the good time law and still defends it, allowing criminals like Nikko Jenkins to be released early.’ The Terry campaign stood behind the ad.”

“The 2014 midterm elections are days away, but preparation are already underway for the first debate of the 2016 presidential primary contest,” the AP reports.

“The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation announced on Thursday that it will invite GOP presidential candidates to attend a televised debate at California’s Reagan Library in September 2015.”

Politico: “After two years of obsessive focus on the teetering reelection prospects of red-state Democrats, the attention is about to shift in a major way to blue-state Republicans. Six of them who rode anti-Obama sentiment to office in 2010 are up in two years, and they’ll face the dual challenge of a more diverse electorate and potentially Hillary Clinton atop the Democratic ticket.”

“The leftward-tilting map means a GOP-controlled Senate could be short-lived if the party prevails on Tuesday. Even in the best-case scenario for the party, a Republican majority is certain to be slim.”

“The pro-Hillary Clinton super PAC Ready for Hillary is planning a National Finance Council meeting… The event, on Nov. 21, has been billed a strategy session at the Sheraton Times Square in New York City to discuss the next steps as the group and Clinton’s extended network wait for her to say definitively whether she is running for president in 2016,” Politico reports.

“But the speakers and attendees represent a cross-section of the party and of Clintonland, including people involved in other outside efforts to prepare for a potential candidacy. And the event itself comes after two years of Ready for Hillary, the low-dollar super PAC backing Clinton, signing up more than 2.5 million supporters and harnessing energy behind her potential candidacy — helping to freeze the Democratic field in the process.”

Our good friends at the Cook Political Report have made their latest House and Senate analysis freely available.

It’s a must-read as we head into the final weekend before the midterm elections.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) and Bruce Braley (D) tied in their U.S. Senate race, 45% to 45%.

“Democratic efforts to turn out the young and nonwhite voters who sat out the 2010 midterm elections appear to be paying off in several Senate battleground states. More than 20 percent of the nearly three million votes already tabulated in Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa have come from people who did not vote in the last midterm election,” according to an analysis of early-voting data by The Upshot.

A new Christopher Newport University poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) leads challenger Ed Gillespie (R) by seven points, 51% to 44%.

A new Vox Populi Polling survey shows Warner with a four point lead, 44% to 40%.

A new WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll in finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) increasing her lead in the U.S. Senate race over Scott Brown (R) to eight points, 50% to 42%.

A new Landmark Communications poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) and Michelle Nunn (D) essentially tied in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 47%.

A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker (R) with a solid lead over Martha Coakley (D) in the race for governor, 44% to 37%.

A new Survey USA poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) leading challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) in the U.S. Senate, 48% to 43%.