It’s increasingly likely that we won’t know which party controls the U.S. Senate on Election Night:

1. The Louisiana Senate race may go to a December runoff.
2. The Georgia Senate race may go to a January runoff.
3. It may take time to count all the votes in Alaska.
4. If Greg Orman (I) wins in Kansas, he may wait for the best offer before deciding which party he’ll caucus with.

“Republicans are canceling TV ad spending planned for the final two weeks of Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, signaling that the GOP is investing in other races in its drive for the Senate majority,” the AP reports.

“Other outside groups, too, are bailing on Michigan, suggesting it’s fallen out of reach” for Terri Lynn Land (R) in her race against Gary Peters (D).

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) just ahead of Michelle Nunn (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 43%.

Key finding: “Libertarian Amanda Swafford is polling at 5%, which would be enough to send the contest into a January runoff if it remains this close. Swafford’s support could reflect residual unhappiness among voters who supported one of Perdue’s opponents in the Republican nomination contest- 70% of them voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 compared to only 16% of them who voted for Barack Obama. They say they would support Perdue over Nunn 43/12 if they had to choose between the two, which would push Perdue’s overall lead to 48/45.”

A new 0ptimus poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) edging Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 40% to 39%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Crist leading 45% to 43%.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Crist ahead 44% to 42%.

Huffington Post: “A reporter on Monday asked Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) whether President Barack Obama was doing enough to contain the spread of Ebola. It, um, did not go well.”

A new We Ask America poll in Illinois finds Gov. Pat Quinn (D) leading challenger Bruce Rauner (R) by four points in the race for governor, 44% to 40%.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota finds Sen. Al Franken (D) has doubled his lead in his race against challenger Mike McFadden (R) and now leads 55% to 37%.

Morning Line: “Increasingly, more and more states are moving toward some form of early voting. In all, 43 states have some form of early voting, and Connecticut, one of the seven states that still does not allow it, has an initiative on the ballot this year to change that. As of today, early in-person voting is already underway in 10 states, including Iowa with its all-important Senate race, which began last week, Sept. 25. Two more states begin voting today — Ohio and Indiana. Arizona — with its key House races — and Georgia — with its closely watched Senate race — will begin voting within the next week.”

Gallup: “Registered voters are more likely to view their choice of candidate in this year’s midterm elections as a message of opposition (32%) rather than support (20%) for President Obama. That 12-percentage-point margin is similar to what Gallup measured for Obama in 2010 and George W. Bush in 2006, years in which their parties performed poorly in the midterm elections.”

Stu Rothenberg expects Republicans to flip seven Senate seats but he says there’s still a chance in the final weeks for Democrats to retain control.

“First, Democrats still may be able to localize elections in a few states — the most likely prospects are North Carolina and Alaska, which were carried by Romney, and two swing states won by Obama, Iowa and Colorado. Doing so would inoculate the Democratic nominees (three incumbents and one open seat hopeful) from Obama’s near-toxic political standing.”

“Second, Democrats may be able to register and turn out additional voters, who could change the arithmetic of the elections.”

Politico: “The message from Republican officials has been crystal clear for two years: The 2016 Republican primary cannot be another prolonged pummeling of the eventual nominee. Only one person ultimately benefited from that last time — Barack Obama — and Republicans know they can’t afford to send a hobbled nominee up against Hillary Clinton.”

“Yet interviews with more than a dozen party strategists, elected officials and potential candidates a month out from the unofficial start of the 2016 election lay bare a stark reality: Despite the national party’s best efforts, the likelihood of a bloody primary process remains as strong as ever.”

Wall Street Journal: “A look back shows that eras of evenly divided power–Congress fully controlled by one party, the presidency by the other–have turned out to be among the most productive. And if you are a president yearning for elusive legislative achievements in the final two years of your term, anything that makes Washington more productive would be welcome, even if attaining some of that productivity required trimming your ideological sails.”

“When power is evenly split in Washington, both parties have to temper their policies. They can worry less about fully satisfying their ideological bases… When the two parties have an equal share of power, they also have an equal share of responsibility for what does and doesn’t get done–and have to worry about taking the blame in the even more important 2016 election if things don’t get done. For Mr. Obama, in particular, full GOP control of Congress might well shift Republicans’ focus from stopping him to making things happen.”