Dave Weigel: “As illusory as the “defund” campaign is, it’s flashy enough to obscure the gains won by hardliners. Every Republican leaving the meeting today suggested that a compromise funding bill or a compromise debt limit hike would set spending at the levels set by sequestration. At his short press conference, Boehner agreed with that. Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry sounded as cynical as Cole about Obamacare, saying it was “worth falling on your sword” to stop it, not saying that doing so would work. He was much more confident, and more insistent, that the eventual deals would force Obama to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.”

“These would be solid Republican wins, enabled–as far as the conservatives can tell–by the most hard-core members’ willingness to humiliate their leadership. Republicans can see exactly how this plan will make that happen. They’re not able to say how the plan will actually defund Obamacare.”

Salon: “Conservatives in the Senate have spent weeks and weeks hectoring House Republicans to stand true to GOP principles and make funding for the federal government contingent upon Democrats agreeing to defund Obamacare.”

“It’s about to blow up in their faces, and probably turn several of their more moderate colleagues into collateral damage.”

“You have never in the history of the United States seen the threat of
not raising the debt ceiling to extort a president or a governing
party.”

— President Obama, quoted by MSNBC.

First Read anticipates the most likely scenario to end the budget standoff:

“If Boehner doesn’t have the votes to be the negotiator here, a small group of Senate Republicans (think McCain, Graham, Corker etc.) work with the White House and Senate Dems for a compromise deal, and then Boehner throws in the towel and allows the House Democrats to provide a majority of the votes. It’s how every other showdown has ended so it’s the most likely ending this time. But can Boehner survive doing this again?”

Norm Ornstein:
“As readers of my past columns know, I was not exactly optimistic as we
approached crunch time over the debt limit in 2011. But I am far more
pessimistic now. At a dinner I attended Monday night with a host of
those individuals deeply involved in fiscal matters, it became clear
that there are no talks going on now–neither formal nor back channel–to
avoid a series of crises over spending and the debt ceiling. The House
majority is in profound disarray, unable to muster majorities for
anything on the spending front as the new fiscal year approaches.”

He concludes: “We are careening toward economic disruption triggered by
outrageous demands that jeopardize the economy and endanger the most
vulnerable among us. Shameful is the only way to describe it.”

Meanwhile, David Hawkings has a more optimistic view of how the current standoff could end.

Rep. John Fleming (R-LA) told Politico that “nothing happens” if the debt ceiling is reached.

Said Fleming: “Technically, it’s not possible to default because there’s always enough revenue to cover the interest. If we defaulted it was because the president chose to default, not because we ran out of money.”

I was on MSNBC discussing a possible government shutdown with Suzy Khimm and Igor Volsky.

An alternate view on Wonk Wire: Government shutdown becoming less likely.

[Read more…]

Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) released a video slamming President Obama for negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Syria but not with congressional Republicans over the debt ceiling.

[Read more…]

Greg Sargent digs into the new Washington Post/ABC News poll on the debt ceiling and finds this amazing nugget:

“Among Republicans who believe that not raising the debt ceiling would cause serious harm to the economy, a majority of them wants Congress not to raise it anyway.”