A new Pew Research survey finds that just 11% of Americans describe themselves as libertarian and actually know what the term means.
Is the Polling Industry in Crisis?
Nate Silver: “There is no shortage of reasons to worry about the state of the polling industry. Response rates to political polls are dismal. Even polls that make every effort to contact a representative sample of voters now get no more than 10 percent to complete their surveys — down from about 35 percent in the 1990s.”
“And there are fewer high-quality polls than there used to be. The cost to commission one can run well into five figures, and it has increased as response rates have declined.1 Under budgetary pressure, many news organizations have understandably preferred to trim their polling budgets rather than lay off newsroom staff.”
Sullivan Takes Early Lead in Alaska
A new Rasmussen survey in Alaska finds Dan Sullivan (R) edging Sen. Mark Begich (D) in the race for Senate, 47% to 45%.
Democratic Migration Offsets Growth in Red States
The Upshot: “Over the last few decades, residents of many traditionally liberal states have moved to states that were once more conservative. And this pattern has played an important role in helping the Democratic Party win the last two presidential elections and four of the last six. The growth of the Latino population and the social liberalism of the millennial generation may receive more attention, but the growing diaspora of blue-state America matters as well.”
“The blue diaspora has helped offset the fact that many of the nation’s fastest-growing states are traditionally Republican. You can think of it as a kind of race: Population growth in these Republican states is reducing the share of the Electoral College held by traditionally Democratic states. But Democratic migration has been fast enough, so far, to allow the party to overcome the fact that the Northeast and industrial Midwest contain a smaller portion of the country’s population than they once did.”
Export-Import Bank is Midterm Election Wildcard
New York Times: “In an election cycle where no single issue is animating voters, the relatively obscure lender, which provides loans and loan guarantees to foreign buyers of American products, has become an unlikely source of prominent campaign friction.”
“The fight over whether to reauthorize the bank, which Congress must do by the end of September to sustain its operations, has roiled Capitol Hill in unexpected ways, creating a divide between the Tea Party movement and establishment Republicans. It also is providing an avenue for Democrats to showcase their support for American companies and to try to drive a wedge between business interests and Republican candidates.”
DesJarlais Wins by 38 Votes
Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) has officially won his primary race, barely squeaking past Jim Tracy (R), who conceded after more than two tense weeks following the Republican primary in Tennessee’s 4th district, Roll Call reports.
“DesJarlais was among the most vulnerable House incumbents this cycle, thanks to personal scandal that dried up his fundraising ability and made him a pariah among some of his peers in the Tennessee delegation. Proceedings from a 2001 divorce arose in October of 2012 that revealed DesJarlais had encouraged an ex-wife and former mistress to have multiple abortions.”
Nunn Won’t Say If She’ll Vote for Reid
Michelle Nunn (D) “served notice to her fellow Democrats that she wasn’t a sure vote for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., to keep his job — should her party keep control of that chamber in November,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
Said Nunn: “I look forward to changing the composition in the leadership of the Senate. The way that we’re going to change Washington is to bring more people to recognize – to have the humility to recognize – that there are good ideas on both sides of the aisle… I will vote for the Democratic leader that I think best represents our capacity to get things done and move things forward.”
States with the Highest Gubernatorial Re-Election Rates
A Smart Politics analysis of the more than 665 gubernatorial elections conducted since 1963 finds that 102 of 406 governors were defeated in their reelection bids (25.1 percent), with incumbents from six states notching a perfect record during this span: Vermont (18 for 18), Connecticut (7 for 7), Wyoming (6 for 6), Pennsylvania (5 for 5), North Carolina (4 for 4), and Tennessee (4 for 4).
New Florida Districts Won’t Take Effect Until 2016
“Florida’s flawed congressional districts may remain in place for two more years and newly drawn boundaries for seven north and central districts don’t have to take effect until 2016,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.
“Judge Terry Lewis upheld the revisions to the state’s congressional map approved by the Florida Legislature during a three-day special session earlier this month. But he said the current configuration, which he ruled unconstitutional a month ago, could stand for the 2014 election.”
Flashback Quote of the Day
“What is it about August?”
— Former President George H.W. Bush, quoted by the Associated Press.
Expectations for Executive Action Rise as Obama Returns
“Expectations are high that President Obama can move ahead with controversial executive actions now that he has returned from his vacation,” The Hill reports.
“Obama’s two weeks on Martha’s Vineyard were plagued by dual crises, in Iraq and in Ferguson, Mo. But his break was also something of a blackout period for news about actions the White House is weighing on immigration reform and so-called corporate ‘inversions,’ a business maneuver companies use to reduce their tax burdens.”
Quote of the Day
“If you go back to how brutal my campaigns were, it was difficult to turn off the campaign switch and to remember to turn to governing.”
— South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), in an interview with The State, on how anger from her 2010 race shaped her governing style.
Will a ‘Disconnected’ President Take Down Democrats?
A tough few weeks during President Obama’s vacation “left the impression of a disconnected president, frustrated with both the expectations and the limitations inherent in being the nation’s leader at this moment in history,” the Washington Post reports.
“It also led to worries — expressed privately — among Democratic party strategists that Obama’s seemingly long-view approach to international and domestic conflicts could spell doom for the party’s chances in the midterm elections, which are only about 10 weeks away.”
Pell Claimed Unpaid Internship was ‘Critical Experience’
In the wake of a new poll showing his Democratic primary opponent Clay Pell (D) gaining ground in the race for Rhode Island governor, Angel Taveras (D) made public an email in which Pell claimed an unpaid summer internship between his sophomore and junior years at college as “critical experience” at the State Department, the Providence Journal reports.
Did McDaniel Wait Too Long to Challenge Election?
“Chris McDaniel’s first hurdle in his lawsuit to overturn his loss to Thad Cochran is a doozy: He may have waited too late to file it,” the Jackson Clarion Ledger reports.
“As he worked for weeks building a case and campaigning that the election was stolen from him, McDaniel’s team said a 20-day deadline applies only to challenges of county and local elections, not a statewide U.S. Senate primary. Others, including the secretary of state, agreed with him.”
Democrats Adopt 2016 Primary Calendar
“The Democratic National Committee, or DNC, approved rules for its 2016 convention along with a primary schedule that will begin with the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1, 2016, followed by voting later that month in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,” the AP reports.
“The 2016 framework is in line with plans pushed by Republicans and gives states incentives to hold their primary contests between March and June, aiming to avoid a front-loaded calendar that encroaches on the Christmas holidays.”
Secrets of the Clinton Library
“Six months after the National Archives began releasing long-withheld Clinton White House documents, thousands of pages of the most sensitive records are still not yet public. But hints of their contents emerged during a Politico recent review of the gaps in the library’s public files.”
A Campaign About Nothing
“America seems resigned to a Seinfeld election in 2014–a campaign about nothing,” John Avlon notes.
“To an exhausted electorate, the final midterms of the Obama presidency are failing to drive much mainstream excitement, and no clear national themes have emerged despite the high-stakes fight for the Senate. DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz essentially admitted as much when she dismissed the idea of Democrats running on any national message, seeking instead to focus on local themes.”
