A new We Ask America poll in Illinois finds Bruce Rauner (R) way ahead of Gov. Pat Quinn (D) in the governor’s race, 51% to 38%, with 11% still undecided.
A new Gravis Marketing poll has Rauner ahead 48% to 40%.
Are Bad Pollsters Copying Good Pollsters?
Harry Enten: “The political polling industry is a mess. Fewer and fewer people are willing to respond to telephone surveys, particularly automated ones, and the costs of live interviews are climbing ever higher. Meanwhile, polls have gained prominence in the political media… and the Internet seems willing to give a home to almost any survey.”
“Demand is up, and quality supply is down. The result: pollsters that use nontraditional methodologies such as online and automated surveys are getting more press than ever, and they get included in the models of the main polling aggregators…”
“The problem is that many of these nontraditional polls may be cheating, adjusting their results to resemble higher-quality polls. We can see this by looking at polling from the final three weeks of Senate campaigns since 2006: in races without traditional, live-interview surveys (what we’ll call gold-standard polling), nontraditional polls have had significantly higher errors than they’ve had in races with at least one gold-standard poll.”
Cuomo’s Trouble is Deeper Than He Realizes
Jeff Smith: “Andrew Cuomo is in serious trouble. Preet Bharara, the hard-charging U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, has turned up the heat on his administration’s alleged interference with an anti-corruption commission he appointed, and for the first time in the New York governor’s four-year tenure, he’s lost control of a situation. That’s an awful feeling for any politician, but especially for one who so prizes control, and who prides himself on playing political chess while his opponents play checkers. It’s the classic tale of a pol so consumed with avoiding a short-term image hit that he risked his long-term freedom. (I know the story well, because five years ago this week I lost control of a similar situation and ended up in prison for obstruction of justice.)”
Philadelphia Seen as Frontrunner for Democratic Convention
“One of five cities bidding for the Democratic National Convention, Philadelphia appears to hold an early edge with a track record of hosting the major gathering — not to mention that Hillary Rodham Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden have family ties to the state,” the AP reports.
“The original U.S. capital and now the nation’s fifth largest city, Philadelphia touts its historical significance. It has hosted the presidential nominating convention seven times since 1856, most recently the Republican one in 2000.”
Everything is Terrible
Politico: “In just one week, polls found politicians of all stripes are hitting approval numbers with record lows. The president finds himself roughly as popular as a trip to the dentist. The entire Democratic Party gets the thumbs down. Oh, and so does the Republican Party.”
“Pollsters say it all adds up to a country that feels ‘everything is terrible,’ as one put it, a mood that campaigns should consider as they head into the midterm homestretch, when turnout should be all about enthusiasm — not pessimism.”
Republicans Seek Further Gains in State Legislatures
New York Times: “Republicans, who had appeared to hit a high-water mark in control of statehouses in recent years, are seeking to pick off another half-dozen chambers this year, taking advantage of President Obama’s persistent unpopularity, anxiety about the economy, and a history of anemic turnout among Democrats in nonpresidential election years. In addition, the party that controls the White House almost always loses seats in statehouses in those years.”
“At a time when Democrats and Republicans in control of statehouses are using their authority to push through ambitious policies that by contrast highlight the paralysis in Washington, the potential for further Republican gains has raised the possibility of deepening the policy divide between red and blue states. Republicans now control 59 of the 99 partisan legislative chambers, and have complete political control — both legislative houses and the governor’s mansion — in 23 states, while Democrats control 13.”
Now on the Sarah Palin Channel
Alternet: “We recently took a look at what’s going on at SarahPalinTV, so you don’t have to. (You’re welcome.) Sadly, it seems that Palin has not taken any of the Twitter suggestions generously offered up for programming on her channel, suggestions like ‘Death Panels, She Wrote.’ Sarah Palin TV runs with more of an ‘Impeach Obama Around the Clock’ kind of theme, along with some of Palin’s homespun homilies. Here are some of the more ridiculous morsels of content streamed on the site.”
Democrats Run Like Republicans
“It’s one thing for Democrats running in red parts of the country to sound like Republicans on the campaign trail. It’s another when Democrats running in purple or even blue territory try to do so. Yet that’s what’s happening in race after race this season,” Politico reports.
“Faced with a treacherous political environment, many Democrats are trotting out campaign ads that call for balanced budgets, tax cuts and other more traditionally GOP positions. Some of them are running in congressional districts that just two years ago broke sharply for President Barack Obama.”
Jindal Says McAllister is an Embarassment
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) told Roll Call that he thinks Rep. Vance McAllister (R-LA) should step down, calling the Louisiana Republican’s continued tenure an “embarrassment” thanks to a scandal that left him with the nickname the “Kissing Congressman.”
Trouble May Not Be Over for Walsh
Sen. John Walsh’s (D-MT) “political career appears to be over, but plagiarism allegations could have far-reaching implications for his military career, too,” The Hill reports.
“Walsh, who was the upper chamber’s lone Iraq War veteran, withdrew from the Senate race this week after reports he allegedly plagiarized roughly a quarter of his 14-page Army War College thesis.”
Turkey’s Premier Will Expand Power from New Post
“Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led Turkey for more than a decade, is set to become the country’s first popularly elected president, apparently cruising to a victory on Sunday that positioned him to be the dominant political figure here for at least five more years,” the New York Times reports.
“The news media declared the victory even though official results will not be published for several days. It came after the most tumultuous year of Mr. Erdogan’s tenure in national politics, when he was challenged by sweeping antigovernment protests and a corruption investigation focused on him and those around him. He has emerged not only as a survivor but as someone who, analysts predict, will look to expand his power from the office of the presidency.”
Pat Roberts Goes ‘Home’
During the GOP primary, Milton Wolf (R) attacked Sen. Pat Roberts (R) “for living most of the year in northern Virginia. The issue is unlikely to go away as the race moves into the general election. Roberts promised Tuesday night to go on a listening tour of the state. He flew back to the Washington, D.C. area following his victory, according to his campaign manager,” the Wichita Eagle reports.
Said Leroy Towns: “He went back home for two days or three to rest. I think he’s going to come back here the first of next week. He’s going to spend most of August out here.”
Clinton Slams Obama Foreign Policy
In an interview with The Atlantic, Hillary Clinton told The Atlantic that the President Obama’s lack of assistance to Syrian rebels led to the rise of ISIS in Iraq.
She also criticized the foreign-policy doctrine which he recently coined as, “Don’t do stupid shit.”
Said Clinton: “Great nations need organizing principles, and ‘Don’t do stupid stuff’ is not an organizing principle.”
Quote of the Day
“I predicted what was going to happen in Iraq. And I’m predicting to you now, that if we pull everybody out of Afghanistan, not based on conditions, you’ll see that same movie again in Afghanistan.”
— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), in an interview on CNN, in which he slammed President Obama’s foreign policy.
Wendy Davis Runs Risky Rape Ad
While political strategists and experts praised the boldness of Wendy Davis’s (D) new ad accusing Greg Abbott (R) of “siding with a corporation over a rape victim,” some said it carries the chance of a backlash that could doom the long-shot campaign, the Houston Chronicle reports.
“The risk may be especially high after the Davis campaign acknowledged Friday it had not spoken with the victim before releasing the ad Thursday night.”
An Election About Nothing?
Washington Post: “This is an election about nothing — and everything. Unlike in previous midterm election years, no dominant national theme has emerged for the 2014 campaign, according to public opinion surveys as well as interviews last week with scores of voters in five key states and with dozens of politicians and party strategists.”
“Even without a single salient issue, a heavy cloud of economic anxiety and general unease is hanging over the fiercely partisan debate. Listening to voters, you hear a downbeat tone to everything political — the nation’s economy, infrastructure and schools; the crises flaring around the world; the evolving culture wars at home; immigration laws; President Obama and other elected leaders in Washington.”
Hawaii Senate Primary Still Up in the Air
Neither Sen. Brian Schatz (D) nor his primary challenger, Colleen Hanabusa (D), went to bed after Saturday’s primary election knowing who won their party’s nomination, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.
“In one of the closest races in state history, Schatz and Hanabusa were separated by a mere 1,635 votes with all but two precincts accounted for and potentially as many as 8,000 votes from Hawaii island still to be tallied. Election officials still need to tabulate votes from two Puna polling sites that were closed as a result of roads damaged by Tropical Storm Iselle, affecting about 8,000 registered voters.”
Abercrombie Blown Out in Primary
David Ige (D), who was unknown to many voters six months ago, ousted Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the Democratic primary, 67% to 32%, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.
“Abercrombie, who outspent Ige 10-to-1 and was endorsed by Hawaii-born President Barack Obama and Hono-lulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell, had trailed in public opinion polls before the primary and had poor job approval ratings for the past three years. But the governor’s defeat is startling given the state’s economic rebound during his four-year term and recent policy victories on the minimum wage, land conservation at Turtle Bay Resort and marriage equality.”
