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Democrats Suffer from Midterm Enthusiasm Gap

July 24, 2014 at 10:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research survey finds the Republican Party holds a clear advantage in voter engagement.

Key finding: “Republicans lead on a number of key engagement indicators, though in most cases by smaller margins than four years ago. Currently, 45% of registered voters who plan to support the Republican in their district say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in prior congressional elections; that compares with 37% of Democrats who express greater enthusiasm about voting. However, that gap is narrower than the both the GOP’s 13-point enthusiasm advantage at this point in the midterm campaign in 2010 (55% to 42%) and the Democrats’ 17-point advantage in 2006 (47% to 30%).”

Brown Keeps Huge Lead in California

July 24, 2014 at 10:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading Neel Kashkari (R) in the race for governor by a wide margin, 52% to 33%.

Astorino Will Confront Chrisite

July 24, 2014 at 10:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

ABC News: “Expect it to be rocky in Aspen. Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino is planning on confronting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over comments he made earlier in the week about his campaign’s viability against New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.”

Astorino told reporters he had not seen Christie yet at the Republican Governor’s Association meeting in Aspen, but he plans on seeing him this evening at a group dinner, saying it’s “the first time we will all be together.”


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Walsh Blames PTSD for Plagiarism

July 24, 2014 at 1:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. John Walsh (D-MT) said “his failure to attribute conclusions and verbatim passages lifted from other scholars’ work in his thesis to earn a master’s degree from the U.S. Army War College was an unintentional mistake caused in part by post-traumatic stress disorder,” the AP reports.

Said Walsh: “I don’t want to blame my mistake on PTSD, but I do want to say it may have been a factor. My head was not in a place very conducive to a classroom and an academic environment.”

Meanwhile, a new Gravis Marketing poll conducted before news of the plagiarism scandal found Walsh trailing Steve Daines (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 41%.

Quote of the Day

July 24, 2014 at 1:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“These moves to limit the right to vote are nothing more than pure politics, masquerading as attempts to combat corruption where there is none.”

— Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by The Hill, on voter ID laws and other efforts to restrict voting.

10 Million Gained Health Insurance Coverage

July 24, 2014 at 1:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A new study estimates that more than 10 million adults gained health insurance by midyear as the coverage expansion under President Barack Obama’s law took hold in much of the country,” the AP reports.

Arizona Botches Execution

July 24, 2014 at 1:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Wednesday afternoon execution of convicted murderer Joseph Rudolph Wood III took nearly two hours, confirming concerns that had been raised by his attorneys about a controversial drug used by the state of Arizona,” the Arizona Republic reports.

“Wood remained alive at Arizona’s state prison in Florence long enough for his public defenders to file an emergency motion for a stay of execution with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, after the process began at 1:53 p.m. The motion noted that Wood ‘has been gasping and snorting for more than an hour’ after being injected with a lethal cocktail of drugs.”

National Journal: “But the motion was too late, and Wood was pronounced dead almost exactly two hours after the state administered the first of a two-drug lethal cocktail into his veins.”

Schauer Admits to Voting in GOP Primary

July 24, 2014 at 12:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Michigan gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer (D) “voted in the 2012 Republican primary, likely for Rick Santorum in order to embarrass Mitt Romney in his home state,” Politico reports.

“Schauer acknowledges casting an absentee Republican ballot, but a spokesman refused to say who he voted for in 2012, calling the way a person votes private.”

Senator Plagiarized Master’s Thesis

July 23, 2014 at 5:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

An examination of the final paper required for Sen. John Walsh’s (D-MT) master’s degree from the United States Army War College “indicates the senator appropriated at least a quarter of his thesis on American Middle East policy from other authors’ works, with no attribution,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Walsh completed the paper, what the War College calls a ‘strategy research project,’ to earn his degree in 2007, when he was 46. The sources of the material he presents as his own include academic papers, policy journal essays and books that are almost all available online.”

How Not to Canvass Door-to-Door

July 23, 2014 at 4:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Claremont Courier: “Canvassers working on behalf of the Let Claremont Vote Committee started making the rounds last week, circulating a petition for a separate measure calling for voter approval on the city’s water bonds. At around 6:45 p.m. on Wednesday, July 16, two canvassers–an unidentified male and female–arrived to the Claremont home of Pat O’Malley. His wife, Shelley, had just finished giving their baby a bath when she passed by the family’s home surveillance monitor and witnessed the couple at their front door. After watching the monitor for a moment, Ms. O’Malley couldn’t believe her eyes. The man was groping the woman, right there on the O’Malley’s front porch.”

Most Americans Say Obamacare Has Helped

July 23, 2014 at 1:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CNN/ORC poll finds that more than half of Americans say Obamacare “has helped either their families or others across the country, although less than one in five Americans say they have personally benefited from the health care law.”

The survey “also indicates that a majority of Americans oppose the Affordable Care Act, but that some of that opposition is from people who don’t think the measure goes far enough.”

Tight Race for Wisconsin Governor

July 23, 2014 at 1:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds that the governor’s race is still a dead heat, with Gov. Scott Walker (R) barely edging challenger Mary Burke (D), 46% to 45%.

Can Huge War Chests Save Senate Democrats?

July 23, 2014 at 1:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Roll Call: “If Senate Democrats lose the majority, it won’t be for lack of cash-flush campaigns. Facing a daunting map, Democrats turned in solid — sometimes eye-popping — second-quarter fundraising totals for the midterms.”

“Even with incumbents such as Sens. Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mark Begich of Alaska already spending significantly on the airwaves, Democrats running for the party’s most endangered seats also continued to sit on significant war chests primed for a post-Labor Day advertising assault.”

Nikki Haley in Trouble?

July 23, 2014 at 1:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Palmetto Politics poll in South Carolina finds Gov. Nikki Haley (R) leading Vincent Sheheen (D) by just four points, 46% to 42% in a race that includes independent and libertarian candidates.

In a head-to-head matchup, Haley leads Sheheen, 53% to 40%.

So Many Bad Polls

July 23, 2014 at 1:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “One more point on the Georgia contest: Yes, Perdue’s win contradicted the existing polls, but they weren’t good polls — which is why, for instance, you never saw us make note of them. We do try and only highlight pollsters who have good methodology and decent track records. In Georgia during this runoff campaign, that didn’t exist. Folks, we’re living in a political age where so much of the data is coming from surveys with either questionable methodology (like not reaching those with cell phones) or with partisan manipulation. And so it’s a reminder to take them with a grain of salt, especially in a low-turnout runoff.”

“And it also means: Be very careful of these aggregation polling sites. They don’t always make the data better… there are actually polling firms out there who seem to have been created for the sole goal of influencing or balancing out these aggregation sites. To the folks who run these aggregation sites, realize that when you mix crap with sirloin, it makes the sirloin taste like &$#% too. ”

How Much Does Presidential Approval Matter in a Midterm?

July 23, 2014 at 1:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Morning Line: “Overall, midterms are not kind to presidents and their parties. And when a president’s approval rating is below 50 percent, like President Obama’s is now, the president’s party loses an average of about three more seats in the Senate than if his approval were above 50 percent. Overall, since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 3.7 Senate seats in midterm elections. When the president’s approval is above 50 percent, the average loss is 2.6 seats. But when the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent, his party has seen an average loss of 5.5 seats in midterms — ironic, considering Republicans need to gain a net of six seats this year to win control of the Senate.”

“The wildcard here, though, is the continued unpopularity of the Republican brand. The party’s favorability hovers in the 30s, slightly worse than Democrats and the president.”

Crist Holds Lead in Florida

July 23, 2014 at 12:53 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 40%.

However, when Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie is added to the mix, the race is too close to call, with 39% for Crist, 37% for Scott and 9% for Wyllie

Bachman Might Make Another Presidential Bid

July 23, 2014 at 12:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) hinted at another run for president in 2016 in an interview with Real Clear Politics, saying “there’s a chance I could run” for president again.

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Night of the Long Knives: In June of 1934, Adolph Hitler ordered his troops to carry out a large-scale purge of suspected dissidents within the Nazi party.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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