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Most Expensive Midterm Election Ever

October 23, 2014 at 3:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Nearly $4 billion will have been spent on this year’s midterm election, including $2.7 billion spent by candidates and parties and almost $900 million spent by outside groups… That’s a stunning figure, making this election by far the most expensive midterm in history–outpacing 2010 by almost $400 million and 2006 by nearly $1.2 billion. It would also outrank the amount of money spent on congressional races in 2012, by about $330 million.”

“What’s even more startling is that the $4 billion figure–which also includes $315 million spent on operating costs by PACs–doesn’t include the full picture of outside spending in this year’s races.”

Cianci Trails for Providence Mayor

October 23, 2014 at 2:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Brown University poll in Providence, Rhode Island finds Jorge Elorza (D) leading Buddy Cianci (I) comfortably in the race for mayor, 48% to 37%.

All Tied Up in Michigan

October 23, 2014 at 2:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan finds the race for governor is a dead heat with Gov. Rick Snyder (R) and challenger Mark Shauer (D) tied, 48% to 48%.

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South Carolina Speaker Forced Out in Plea Deal

October 23, 2014 at 2:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

South Carolina Speaker Bobby Harrell (R) “pleaded guilty to six counts of use of campaign funds for personal expenses on Thursday morning and has agreed to resign immediately from his House seat,” The State reports.

New York Times: “Mr. Harrell also agreed to help prosecutors and investigators in any other investigations into wrongdoing involving the Legislature or other matters. The prosecutor, David Pascoe, did not specify what those investigations involve.”

Anti-Incumbent Mood is Bipartisan

October 23, 2014 at 2:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Pew Research: “Voter frustration with members of Congress is currently even higher than it was 2010 or 2006. Fully 68% of registered voters say they do not want to see most members of Congress reelected – 14 points higher than in 2010 and 19 points higher than in 2006. And roughly a third (35%) say they do not want their own representative reelected, compared with 32% four years ago and 26% eight years ago.”

“Yet unlike in those elections, when a single party controlled both the House and Senate, anti-incumbent sentiment now crosses party lines. Republican and Democratic voters are about equally likely to oppose the reelection of most representatives and their own member of Congress.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 23, 2014 at 1:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I mean, we suck. We really do.”

— U.S. Labor Secretary Tom Perez, quoted by Bloomberg, on the minimum wage.

Tillis Inches Ahead in North Carolina

October 23, 2014 at 1:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Civitas Poll in North Carolina shows Thom Tillis (R) leading Sen. Kay Hagan (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 41%.

Hagan led in the previous poll by five points.

Nunn Holds Small Lead in Georgia

October 23, 2014 at 1:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia finds Michelle Nunn (D) leading David Perdue (R) in the U.S. Senate race by two points, 47% to 45%.

The race for governor is tied with Gov. Nathan Deal (R) and Jason Carter (D) both at 44%.

Orman Still Ahead in Kansas

October 23, 2014 at 12:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Rasmussen survey in Kansas finds Greg Orman (I) still holds a five-point lead over Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in the unexpectedly competitive U.S. Senate race, 49% to 44%.

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 23, 2014 at 9:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I don’t think so. If there’s any lesson I’ve learned in the last five years, it’s don’t be so sure about what lies ahead. There are amazing doors that could open.”

— Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), in an interview with People, on whether she’s interested in running for president.

Burke Has Edge in Wisconsin

October 23, 2014 at 9:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Wisconsin finds Mary Burke (D) now leading Gov. Scott Walker (R) in the race for governor by one point, 49% to 48%.

Race for Colorado Governor a Toss Up

October 23, 2014 at 8:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Colorado finds Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) now leads Bob Beauprez (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 44%.

Hickenlooper trailed by 10 points in a similar poll last month.

Abbott Headed for Landslide in Texas

October 23, 2014 at 8:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll finds Greg Abbott (R) has a 16-point lead over Wendy Davis (D) in the closing days of the race for Texas governor, 54% to 38%.

Said pollster Jim Henson: “The drama of the outcome is not who wins, but what the margin will be. Wendy Davis has not led in a single poll in this race.”

Young Says Big Government Causes Suicide

October 23, 2014 at 7:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After remarks deemed insensitive to a high school where a student had killed himself, Rep. Don Young (R-AK) doubled-down saying that suicide comes from federal government largesse “saying you are not worth anything but you are going to get something for nothing,” the Alaska Dispatch News reports.

He added: “When people had to work and had to provide and had to keep warm by putting participation in cutting wood and catching the fish and killing the animals, we didn’t have the suicide problem.”

Quote of the Day

October 23, 2014 at 7:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“There’s no doubt that there’s a theatrical nature to the presidency that he resists. Sometimes he can be negligent in the symbolism.”

— David Axelrod, quoted by Businessweek, on President Obama’s management style.

Rauner Jumps Into Lead for Illinois Governor

October 23, 2014 at 7:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Chicago Tribune poll in Illinois finds Bruce Rauner (R) has surged ahead of Gov. Pat Quinn (D) in the race for governor, 45% to 43%.

“The findings represent a sharp turnaround from a similar survey conducted Sept. 3-12 that found Quinn with an 11 percentage point advantage over Rauner. The governor’s race has tightened as voters become more focused on the campaign and both sides bombard the airwaves with tens of millions of dollars’ worth of negative attack ads on television, radio and newspaper websites.”

White House Plans for Staff Departures

October 23, 2014 at 7:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“White House chief of staff Denis McDonough has asked senior aides to tell him if they’re going to stick around for President Barack Obama’s final two years in office, with a West Wing restructuring after the midterms possible,” Politico reports.

“The process, which began in recent weeks, is focused on keeping people at the White House, with the expectation among senior administration officials that whoever’s in place next summer would remain through the end of the presidency.”

Parties Prepare for GOP Taking Control of Senate

October 23, 2014 at 7:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“With Republicans looking increasingly likely to take control of the Senate, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are already considering how they will operate in the chamber if the levers of power are reversed,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“For Republicans, the prospect of controlling the Senate is sparking an early debate over whether to change the rules of the road, particularly those guiding nominations and the budget. Such rule changes are arcane but could have a big impact on legislation and who is confirmed to judicial- and executive-branch posts.”

“Democrats, too, would face choices, including how much of an impediment they want to be to a GOP-run Congress and who will lead them in that fight.”

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October Surprise: An October surprise is a news event which takes place shortly before a closely-watched election and which may influence the election’s outcome.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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