A new National Journal Congressional Connection poll finds voters split on whether President Obama deserves another term: 44% would like to see a Republican elected, while 42% want Obama to win a second term.

Meanwhile, when asked if Republicans should retain control of the House, 41% said yes and 43% said they would prefer Democrats to recapture the majority.

Mitt Romney has raised $1.9 million from Utah residents through September 30, almost as much as the $2.1 million he raised from Massachusetts, where he was elected governor, Bloomberg reports.

Jon Huntsman, who hails from a prominent family in Utah and was twice elected governor, has raised $255,850 from his home state. His total is only slightly larger than the $237,705 President Obama has collected from donors in Utah, a state he lost by 29 points in the 2008 election.

The Economist isn’t impressed with Rick Perry’s new Iowa ad in which he discounts his failings as a communicator by saying, “I’m a doer, not a talker.”

“Not to be overly pedantic, but talking is a kind of doing. Indeed, talking is primarily how one gets things done in politics. How does Mr Perry convey that he is a doer, and not a talker? By talking. What else is there? Interpretative dance? A presidential candidate unable to best a foe in a public exchange, or to communicate his position on a complex issue when the heat is on, is about as useful as a one-legged fullback. There’s a good reason Mr Perry’s embarrassing debate performances have left him trailing Herman Cain by 15 points in the polls not long after he entered the race with a comfortable lead: a candidate this feckless on his feet would be eaten alive by Barack Obama in the general-election debates.”

Can Herman Cain survive the allegations he sexually harassed as least two women and his shifting explanation of what happened?

First Read: “It all depends if there’s another allegation or a new piece of information that contradicts his current story. If there is, that would be a knockout blow. Indeed, conservative commentators largely gave Cain a free pass yesterday. Rush Limbaugh said, ‘Look at how quickly what is known as the ‘mainstream media’ goes for the ugliest racial stereotypes they can to attack a black conservative.’ And Laura Ingraham, who clerked for Clarence Thomas, said, ‘Doesn’t all this sound familiar? A black man who thinks for himself, who ends up surprising everyone…’ (One exception, however, was Karl Rove, demonstrating an establishment-vs.-base divide here.) But if another shoe drops, he most likely won’t get another free pass from them.”

The Note: “Cain’s dissembling represents a marked departure from his straight-talking persona on the campaign trail, but we still don’t know whether it spells disaster for his campaign or if it’s just a bump in the road. Will either of the two women who received monetary settlements speak publicly? Are there any other shoes to drop? If the answer to both of those questions is ‘no’, it’s hard to see this story get much more traction — even with Cains’ inconsistencies.”

Jon Stewart looks at sexual harassment accusations against Herman Cain and Rick Perry’s loopy speech in New Hampshire and concludes, “Mitt Romney is the luckiest Motherfudger on Earth.”

[Read more…]

Occupy Wall Street activists “plan to amass in Iowa one week before the Iowa caucuses — up to the day they’re held on Jan. 3,” CNN reports.

“If the protests occur, it appears they would be unprecedented for the
Iowa caucus season. They could also spark clashes between Occupy Wall
Street activists and scores of conservatives.”

“I enjoy flowers like everybody else.”

— Herman Cain, in an interview on Fox News, on whether he has a “roaming eye.”

The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll
finds that an overwhelming number of Texans attribute the state’s
economic success to “long-standing policies and natural resources,” at
65%, while just 21% believe it was a result of Gov. Rick Perry’s (R)
leadership.

“The poll results appear to show Texas voters don’t
buy Perry’s claim that his policies are responsible for the state’s
economy and that he can do the same for the country. The findings,
however, buttress his claim that protecting those state policies against
efforts to raise taxes and increase regulation helped the state weather
the recession.”

Politico
reports that the Commission on Presidential Debates has set the
presidential debate schedule for next year, pitting President Obama
against his eventual Republican opponent in Colorado, New York, and
Florida.

The schedule: October 3 at the University of Denver,
October 16 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, and October 22
at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida. There will also be a single
vice presidential debate at Centre College in Danville, Kentucky on
October 11.

An excellent video compilation shows how Herman Cain’s recollection of sexual harassment allegations made against him in the 1990s changed throughout the day.

Daily Beast: “Cain spent Monday morning denying he was ever accused of sexual harassment against two women in the 1990s. Then he ackowledged the allegations but said they were ‘false’ and ‘baseless,’ while saying he knew ‘nothing’ of a cash settlement. Now he acknowledged that he knew about a settlement that was offered to one of the women.”

New York Times: “Cain’s shifting explanations and the gaps in the story made it hard to determine the impact of the revelations on his long-term prospects in states like Iowa, whose crucial caucuses are just two months away.”

[Read more…]

A new Washington Poll finds Rob McKenna (R) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D) in the race for Washington governor, 44% to 38%.

Ed Rollins told ABC News that former client Michele Bachmann has “run out of money and ideas” and can no longer expect to win in Iowa.

Said Rollins: “She’s still saying the same things she said in the first the debate. There’s no substance. She says, ‘I’m going to repeal Obamacare.’ But she’s been saying that from Day 1. I told her: That’s your Tea Party speech, now you have to say what you’re going to do next.”

Ben Smith: “Rarely has the arc of a campaign been so clearly foretold (another win for the pundits!) as Michele Bachmann’s, about whom the conventional wisdom this summer was, roughly, Ames victory, abrupt collapse, public recriminations from Ed Rollins.”

“None of us should be surprised… look how quickly the mainstream
media goes for the ugliest, racial stereotypes they can to attack a
black conservative… Herman Cain is somebody. Herman Cain is
obviously making some people nervous for this kind of thing to happen.”

— Rush Limbaugh, quoted by the National Review.

Coming soon: Health Care Reform: What It Is, Why It’s Necessary, How It Works by Jonathan Gruber.

WBUR interviews the author: “I think Mitt Romney is the hero of this story. But I want to make clear that the way he’s portrayed in this book has nothing to do with his presidential campaign. Mitt Romney is the single person most responsible for health care reform in this country: Without his leadership we don’t get reform in Massachusetts, and without Massachusetts reform we don’t get national reform.”