Larry Sabato: “The lesson of history is clear, as our quick-take chart shows: From 1976 to 2008, there has been a major surprise every time either in Iowa or New Hampshire. A back-of-the-pack candidate greatly exceeds expectations. Or the frontrunner stumbles. Or the field is scrambled in some other way.”

Herman Cain lashed out at Rick Perry, “accusing the Texas governor’s campaign of orchestrating the original report about allegations of sexually inappropriate behavior,” Politico reports.

Said Cain: “We’ve been able to trace it back to the Perry campaign that stirred this up in order to discredit me. The fingerprints of the Rick Perry campaign are all over this, based on our sources.”

First Read: “But the blame game only works for a short period of time. What ultimately matters is the story — not who leaked it. Indeed, here’s what NBC News has known since Monday: Two women accused Cain of inappropriate sexual conduct, and at least one woman received a financial settlement because of it. Over the course of three days, Cain has tried to deflect blame, but hasn’t been able prove all the allegations as false. He’s complaining that he’s being treated as if he’s ‘guilty until proven innocent’… The problem for him is that while he’s been deflecting blame, he’s also evolved his explanation so much that it’s confirmed some of the charges, making his denials on all of them harder to believe.”

Nate Silver develops a forecasting model for the 2012 presidential election and runs the numbers:

“Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.”

“With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.”

Associated Press: “A third former employee says she considered filing a workplace complaint over what she considered aggressive and unwanted behavior by Herman Cain when she worked for the presidential candidate in the 1990s. She says the behavior included a private invitation to his corporate apartment.”

Meanwhile, Politico reports talk radio host Steve Deace said Cain said “awkward” and “inappropriate” things to the staff at his station.

Oklahoma political consultant Chris Wilson tells KTOK that he was at a restaurant when Herman Cain sexually harassed a staffer.

Said Wilson: “It was only a matter of time because so many people were aware of what took place, so many people were aware of her situation, the fact she left — everybody knew with the campaign that this would eventually come up.”

Wilson said for legal reasons, he can not discuss details of the incident. “But if she comes out and talks about it, like I said, it’ll probably be the end of his campaign.”

Update: A reader notes Wilson does polling for a Super PAC backing Rick Perry’s presidential bid.

David Bernstein finds that just a quarter of those who gave large amounts to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign four years ago have contributed again this year.

“Even Romney’s earliest supporters are, for the most part, sitting on the sidelines. Just 30 percent of big donors who gave in the first three months of 2007 have given this year. Of those who gave in the very first week last time, the return rate is 40 percent — still well under half.”

Another in our guest series from Inkwell Strategies analyzing the 2012 campaign ad war.

With his campaign in free-fall and the Iowa caucuses looming, Texas Governor Rick Perry is attempting to turn things around with what has been described as a “significant ad buy” in New Hampshire, one of the 2012 campaign’s first major paid media campaigns.

In a strong departure from his glossy and stylish “Proven Leadership” ad, Perry’s new video is stylistically simple. Gone are the melodramatic crescendos and the Hollywood-inspired cinematography. With weak debate performances and a bizarre speech in New Hampshire that led to speculation that he was intoxicated, the new ad is a clear effort to counter the prevailing notion that Perry may not have the gravitas for the presidency. Rather than aiming for Beltway politicos, this ad aims at middle class conservative voters who will ultimately decide the GOP race.

[Read more…]

“What did I say? Excuse me. Excuse me! What part of no don’t some people understand?”

— Herman Cain, in a NBC News video, brushing off reporters who wanted to ask about the sexual harassment allegations made against him.

[Read more…]

The Washington Post’s excellent Republican Primary Tracker shows that Herman Cain hasn’t been to either Iowa or New Hampshire once in the last 30 days.

A new Rasmussen survey in South Carolina shows Herman Cain with a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney, 33% to 23%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 15%.

It’s important to note the automated phone survey was taken just last night after two days of media coverage about sexual harassment allegations against Cain.

As expected, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has scheduled the state’s primary for January 10, 2012, John DiStaso reports.

Here’s the schedule of the first five states in the GOP nominating process:

January 3: Iowa

January 10: New Hampshire

January 21: South Carolina

January 31: Florida

February 4: Nevada

“There are factions that are trying to destroy me personally, as well as this campaign.”

— Herman Cain, quoted by NBC News.

Rick Perry “was stone-cold sober during his bombastic, comedic speech in New Hampshire, according to the man who invited the Texas governor to speak and spent much of the evening with him,” The Hill reports.

Said Kevin Smith: “I can tell you unequivocally he wasn’t drinking at the event and he hadn’t been drinking prior to the event. I was sitting with him, and I found him to be very engaging with all of the people he was talking with, he was very articulate.”

In fact, Smith said that Perry drank “only water” at the event and that his speech was well-received.

Mitt Romney holds a wide lead over his GOP rivals in donations received from the 939 “Pioneers” and “Rangers” who raised at least $100,000 each for George W. Bush’s two presidential campaigns, the Houston Chronicle reports.

“Romney has received 148 donations totaling $351,250 from Bush’s top money people, compared to Perry’s 87 contributions worth $213,000 and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s 47 donations for $102,867… Herman Cain, who is competing with Romney for first place in recent polling, has not received support from former Bush fundraisers, the study found.”

In the wake of the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain and the rapid drop in the polls by Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, First Read wonders if Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the Republican presidential race too early.

“Ironically, Pawlenty’s own initial analysis of the 2012 GOP Primary back in 2010 was that this would be two primaries: one to become the anti-Romney, and then one with Romney. As Pawlenty found out the hard way, it was perhaps too soon to drop out of the anti-Romney primary.”

Jonah Goldberg: “His problem stemmed from the fact that he’s a vanilla guy who thought he needed to convince conservatives he was a more exciting flavor. He should have waited, because vanilla may not be anyone’s first choice, but it’s almost everyone’s second choice… This should be Pawlenty’s moment. He could run as the vanilla alternative to the fat-free, sugar-free vanilla frogurt Romney.”