In the wake of the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain and the rapid drop in the polls by Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, First Read wonders if Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the Republican presidential race too early.

“Ironically, Pawlenty’s own initial analysis of the 2012 GOP Primary back in 2010 was that this would be two primaries: one to become the anti-Romney, and then one with Romney. As Pawlenty found out the hard way, it was perhaps too soon to drop out of the anti-Romney primary.”

Jonah Goldberg: “His problem stemmed from the fact that he’s a vanilla guy who thought he needed to convince conservatives he was a more exciting flavor. He should have waited, because vanilla may not be anyone’s first choice, but it’s almost everyone’s second choice… This should be Pawlenty’s moment. He could run as the vanilla alternative to the fat-free, sugar-free vanilla frogurt Romney.”

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) tells the Lincoln Journal Star that he’ll make a decision about running for re-election “sometime during the Christmas holiday season.”

“Nelson has his campaign leadership in place, has blanketed the state with a series of TV ads paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has raised campaign funds and banked more than $3 million for a re-election bid, but he still has not yet left the starting gate, pushed the go button, pulled the trigger.”

Said Nelson: “I’m not trying to drag this out. There is no theater involved in this. It’s more that I just don’t want to be a candidate any longer than I need to be or (it’s more difficult) to do the job I’m elected to do.”

Herman Cain is hurting himself with his repeated high-profile appearances to discuss sexual harassment allegations made against him because, as The Fix notes, “his side of the story keeps changing. And that means that every time he goes on television, he is creating more questions than he’s answering.”

Said former RNC communication director Brian Jones: “Ultimately, crisis communications is about survival. Repeatedly re-litigating the story and injecting new facts only fuels the story while also casting doubts on the truthfulness of the pushback.”

“In other words: Get your story straight and stick to it. And that’s the opposite of what Cain did in the first 48 hours of this controversy.”

As the Republican presidential primary weaves its way towards the first caucuses and primaries, The Hill
notes that in “the past few weeks, White House and campaign officials
have all but declared Romney the nominee… blasting the former
Massachusetts governor in conference calls and background briefings.”

“And
Romney is the second target. The first phase of Obama’s ‘we can’t wait’
political strategy was his fall offensive against Congress. By going on
the road and going on offense, using the thin shield of an ill-fated
jobs act, Obama has helped drive down congressional approval. And while
it hasn’t yielded any huge gains for Obama’s own dismal approval rating,
this isn’t about making people like Obama. It’s about making people
hate Congress. And soon it will be about making people hate Romney. Or
at least fear him.”

Metaphor of the campaign: “The summer days of
compromise are gone, replaced by the autumn winds of political combat.
The winter will be cold, brutal and long as the president’s team takes
its fight from Congress to Romney. Obama can’t wait.”

“Nine local TV anchors got the full Cinderella treatment from the White
House, on a day that one likened to ‘a whirlwind,'” according to the Los Angeles Times.

“Yes,
they interviewed the president in the Cabinet Room on Tuesday. But they
also got lunch with the president’s top political advisor, David
Plouffe; an on-camera tour of the White House main floor in the company
of a curator; a visit to First Lady Michelle Obama’s garden on the South
Lawn; an interview with a White House aide from their home
market… Press SecretaryJay Carney skipped over some of the national
press to make sure the out-of-town guests got a question at the daily
briefing.”

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds 48% of Americans rate the Democratic Party favorably, marking the party’s first sub-50% read in polling since 1984. At the same time, public views of the Republican Party continue to be even more negative with just 40% viewing the party favorably.

Independent voters are broadly critical of the two sides: 55%
have unfavorable views of the Democrats and Republicans alike.

Interestingly, while 74% of independent voters favor the idea of an independent candidate for president, majorities of both Republicans (57%) and Democrats (53%) also back the concept, at least in principle.

“This is the year when we can’t have any surprises with our candidate.”

— Michele Bachmann, quoted by the AP, taking a shot at rival Herman Cain as he defends himself against allegations of sexual harassment.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds President Obama’s job approval rating is split with 47% approving and 49% disapproving — a significant improvement from last month when he held a 41% to 55% approval.

Voters also are divided 47% to 49% on whether he deserves reelection, compared to last month, when a majority said he did not deserve reelection.

National Journal: “Still, there are indications that the poll could just be a blip. There is little change in the crosstabs by party from last month, when Romney led Obama by four points. Independents broke for Romney by five points in each survey, yet, overall, there was a nine-point swing. It simply appears that this month’s sample is significantly more Democratic.”

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Herman Cain leading the Republican presidential field nationally with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney with 23%, Newt Gingrich with 10% and Rick Perry with 8%. No other candidate tops 7 percent.

Cain leads a head-to-head race with Romney among Republican voters, 47% to 39%, “coming close to the critical 50% mark, even though more Republicans think Romney has the knowledge and experience to be president.”

One of Herman Cain’s accusers received $35,000 — a full year’s salary — in severance pay after an encounter with Cain “made her uncomfortable working there, three people with direct knowledge of the payment,” the New York Times reports.

A lawyer for one of the women who accused Herman Cain of sexual harassment wants to tell her side of the story but is barred by a confidentiality agreement, the Washington Post reports.

Said lawyer Joel Bennett: “It is just frustrating that Herman Cain is going around bad-mouthing the two complainants, and my client is blocked by a confidentiality agreement.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports Cain declined to release the woman from the agreement.

Said Cain: “I just found out about this today. I can’t give you a definitive answer on that until we consult with our attorneys.”

A new Suffolk University poll in Florida finds President Obama struggling in the low 40% range in head-to-head matchups with Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, he rockets to 50% when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is added to the Democratic ticket.

The Republican presidential ticket is also helped when adding Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) as the vice presidential candidate, but not nearly as much as the Democratic ticket is enhanced by adding Clinton.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “In Florida, Marco Rubio is superman, but Hillary Clinton is the kryptonite.”

A new Suffolk University poll in Florida finds Mitt Romney just ahead of Herman Cain among Republican presidential primary voters, 25% to 24%, with Newt Gingrich at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, and Ron Paul at 5%.

All other candidates are at 2% or less and 20% of registered Republicans are still undecided.

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Olympia Snowe’s (R-ME) prospects for winning the GOP nomination for another term are looking the best they have in two years.

Two years ago, just 31% of Maine Republicans stood with Snowe, while 59% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. Now, 46% of primary voters in the state stand with Snowe compared to only 47% who want to replace her with someone more conservative.

Key finding: Just 21% of Republican primary voters identify as Tea Partiers. While they want to replace Snowe with someone more conservative by an 80% to 16% margin, they’re drowned out by the rest of the GOP electorate supporting Snowe 58% to 36%.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) made clear that she “will be asking President Barack Obama to come to Missouri within the next few months to campaign for her, and help her raise money for her 2012 bid for re-election,” according to the St. Louis Beacon.

Said McCaskill, “I don’t always agree with the president. He’ll be the first to tell you that. But I support the president.”

The Hotline: “Vulnerable Democrats in comparable positions should take notice. Opponents will tie McCaskill to Obama no matter what she does… If you are going to be tied to an unpopular president, you may as well let him use his standing to help you raise some money along the way.”