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Do Boehner and McConnell Get Along?

November 6, 2014 at 2:36 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

John Boehner and Mitch McConnell “have never been best friends,” Roll Call reports.

“But they aren’t enemies, either. Far from it, say staffers and sources who know both lawmakers. The speaker and the Senate’s presumptive new majority leader have built, over the years, a solid professional relationship based on a sturdy sense of mutual respect. That relationship is in the spotlight now more than ever, with Republicans emboldened in the wake of Tuesday’s wave election that saw the GOP pick up at least eight seats in the Senate and more than a dozen in the House.”

White Men Were the Decisive Vote

November 6, 2014 at 11:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard 145 Comments

First Read: “Over the past few cycles, we’ve talked so much about the Latino vote, African Americans, female voters. But the decisive force on Election Night 2014 turned out to be … white men. They made up 37% of the electorate (up from 34% in 2012), and they broke for Republicans 64%-33% (compared with Romney’s 62%-35% margin in ’12). The question for Democrats is if this is simply a midterm phenomenon, or if it’s a longer-term challenge for the Democratic Party — being able to talk to white male voters.”

The Biggest Surprises from the Midterm Elections

November 6, 2014 at 11:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard 69 Comments

The breadth of the Republican win was surprising, but the Wall Street Journal highlights six other surprises:

Virginia Senate race
Maryland Governor’s race
Kansas Governor’s race
No runoff in Georgia
Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) wins
Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) loses

Are there others? Let us know in the comments.

Why the Midterms Tell Us Little About 2016

November 6, 2014 at 11:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“America has again embraced our long history of electoral overreaction. While it’s true that Republicans won a major victory at the polls, the results tell us far less about future elections than some commentary has suggested,” Brendan Nyhan writes.

“Historically, midterm results, which are typically unfavorable to the president’s party, tell us relatively little about the coming presidential election… The record shows that the president’s party can rebound from major losses to win at the polls in two years. Bill Clinton, for instance, bounced back from the 1994 Republican landslide to easily win re-election in 1996. Similarly, President Obama, whose party suffered major losses in 2010, went on to defeat Mitt Romney in 2012, and George Bush won the 1988 election after Republicans suffered major losses in 1986, President Reagan’s sixth year in office.”

The Senate Map Flips in 2016

November 6, 2014 at 10:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard 84 Comments

“After securing control of the Senate Tuesday, Republicans are already staring down a daunting map for 2016,” Roll Call reports.

“The majority of the Senate battleground in the next election cycle will be fought on Republican turf, with the GOP defending 24 seats to the Democrats’ 10. There is more trouble for the party beneath those raw numbers; only two Democratic seats are in competitive states, while more than half a dozen Republican incumbents face re-election in states President Barack Obama carried at least once.”

Huffington Post: Here’s the Democratic route back to Senate control

How Hillary Talks About Women’s Issues

November 6, 2014 at 10:39 am EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

Joe Klein: “I watched Clinton speak three times during the campaign, and she limited herself to women’s issues too, but she did it cleverly. The emphasis was on economics rather than reproductive rights. She was especially good on the economic impact of pay equity: working women would have more money to spend, and they would spend it on consumer goods, which would create jobs–the opposite of trickle-down economics. She told specific personal stories about her difficulties as a working mom. She spoke slowly, softly, far more confidently than she had in past campaigns.”

“There was a two-tiered rationale for her message: she was spot-on the Democrats’ national pitch, a good soldier selling the blue brand, but the emphasis on women’s rights also redressed a failing from her 2008 campaign. She had run on ‘experience’ then and downplayed the fact that she was a piece of history: the first plausible woman to run for President. She doesn’t have to worry about experience now; everyone knows she has it. The question is, how does she play to her strengths as a woman if she chooses to run? (And I assume she will.) And how does she convince voters that she’s not the same old, same old?”

Republicans Have Historic Majorities in State Legislatures

November 6, 2014 at 8:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 95 Comments

Libby Nelson: “One Republican victory in the midterm elections has been mostly overlooked. Yes, Republicans took control of the Senate and a surprising number of governorships. But they also won a record number of state legislature seats.”

“Republicans now control state government outright in at least 24 states, one more than they did before the election. They control at least 66 of 99 state legislative chambers nationwide. And they cut the number of states with total Democratic control from 14 to seven — the lowest number since the Civil War.”

Quote of the Day

November 6, 2014 at 7:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

“I don’t believe a thing he says.”

— RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, in a CNN interview, on President Obama urging compromise.

Cantor Says Obama Never Called After Loss

November 6, 2014 at 7:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

Former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) told CNBC that President Obama never called him after he lost his June primary.

Said Cantor: “Not a word.”

He added: “I did from the vice president several times and several of the members from both sides. Obviously you have a lot of friendships there.”

If Not Obama’s Policies, Was It His Leadership?

November 6, 2014 at 7:22 am EST By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

President Obama and his aides “are arguing that the stinging defeat Democrats suffered at the polls Tuesday wasn’t a rejection of the policies he’s advocated over the past six years, citing evidence of popular support for his agenda even as voters turned against his party,” Politico reports.

“But that line of argument might not be the best one to boost Obama’s post-midterm standing, as it leads to a conclusion even more uncomfortable for the White House: that voters were instead passing judgment on Obama himself.”

GOP Sees Chance to Forge New Identity

November 6, 2014 at 6:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“The Republican Party secured an electoral sweep Tuesday that made it America’s dominant party, not just in Washington but in states around the U.S. On Wednesday, it began trying to define the kind of governing party it wants to be,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The election results reinforced the party’s basic conservative identity—formed by the governors and members of Congress elected in 2010 and the new crop of officials elected this week. At the same time, its elected officials span several political styles and governing philosophies, from the tea-party spirit of Maine Gov. Paul LePage, to the ‘compassionate conservatism’ of Ohio Gov. John Kasich to the budget cutting of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.”

“In the two years before the next national election, Republicans say they have a chance to define more completely how the party’s conservatism translates into a governing platform for the U.S. Its ascendant governors want to have a loud voice.”

Getting to Know Mitch

November 6, 2014 at 6:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

The New York Times has a good look at the relationship between President Obama and the likely new Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

“After six years of sparse communication and social interaction but frequent open hostility, the relationship between the taciturn Kentuckian and the aloof chief executive could determine Mr. Obama’s legislative legacy and Republican presidential fortunes in 2016. In other words, there is a lot riding on very little rapport.”

Wall Street Journal: “The president and Mr. McConnell are the latest in a long line of bipartisan odd couples to dictate the legislative agenda in Washington. Mr. Obama is a historic figure with a penchant for sweeping rhetoric. Mr. McConnell is a tactician who has spent the better part of three decades mastering legislative arcana.”

Republicans Reclaim Purple States

November 6, 2014 at 6:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

“More striking than any Republican gains in red-state America on Tuesday were the party’s Senate victories in Colorado and North Carolina and the near miss in Virginia,” the New York Times reports.

“All are states that both parties believed were trending Democratic, and that Democrats boasted would before long be out of reach to Republicans.”

“But a powerful lesson for both parties emerged from the returns: Demographic shifts that are gradually reshaping the American electorate, making it more racially diverse and younger, cannot overcome a difficult political environment and a weak message in a nonpresidential year. And the Democratic edge in sophisticated technological voter mobilization and targeting is eroding, as Republicans adopt similar techniques and catch up.”

Business Sees Opening for Legislative Agenda

November 6, 2014 at 6:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“After years of gridlock in Washington, American business is gearing up for a major push on long-sought goals like an overhaul of the corporate tax system, building the Keystone XL oil pipeline, lighter environmental and financial regulation and winning congressional backing for trade deals with Asia and Europe. Business interests face a much more receptive audience now that Republicans are poised to control both the House and Senate next year,” the New York Times reports.

“But despite plenty of public talk of more aggressive action — like a rollback of the Affordable Care Act or the Dodd-Frank rules passed after the financial crisis — lobbyists, experts on Wall Street and political veterans say the actual legislative agenda will be much more limited.”

GOP Sees New Hope for 2016

November 5, 2014 at 6:19 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 120 Comments

“GOP victories on Tuesday in a handful of swing states once carried by President Barack Obama are buoying the party’s hopes for taking back the White House in 2016,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Republicans Cory Gardner in Colorado, Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Joni Ernst in Iowa clinched Senate seats. Republican governors also won second terms in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan. Mr. Obama won all of these swing states at least once, in part because of a superior voter-turnout operation that took advantage of demographic trends and altered the shape of the electorate.”

Said GOP pollster Neil Newhouse: “The results are very encouraging for 2016. We’ve leveled the playing field in terms of the ground game in these purple states.”

GOP to Act Fast on Legislative Agenda

November 5, 2014 at 6:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 28 Comments

“Newly empowered congressional Republicans plan on moving quickly to demonstrate that they can effectively legislate, aware that they risk a backlash in two years if they fail to deliver,” the New York Times reports.

“Anticipating for months that they would take the Senate and pad their majority in the House, Republicans have been quietly discussing their agenda and approach after regularly accusing Democrats, led by Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, of thwarting their priorities. They say they will focus on balancing the budget, restoring an orderly process for spending bills, revising if not repealing the health care law and enacting a major overhaul of the tax code — ambitious goals, given years of stalemate and discord.”

“Before taking up the issue of immigration, Republicans are likely to see what unilateral action President Obama undertakes, and how the country reacts to it.”

Washington Post: “McConnell and Boehner are both eager to shed the party’s image as an unruly collection of obstructionists and far-right ideologues. The remedy, they have decided: Act quickly to send President Obama bills with bipartisan support to fast-track international trade agreements, repeal an unpopular tax on medical devices and approve the Keystone XL pipeline.”

King Won’t Abandon Democrats

November 5, 2014 at 6:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Sen. Angus King (I-ME) announced that he “will continue to caucus with the Democrats in Washington despite Republicans’ wresting back control of the U.S. Senate in Tuesday’s elections,” the Portland Press Herald reports.

“King, an independent serving his first term, acknowledged that caucusing with the minority party has some drawbacks but said he believes Maine is better served by him continuing to caucus with the Democrats, especially with Maine Sen. Susan Collins caucusing with the Republicans.”

McConnell Expected to Woo King and Manchin

November 5, 2014 at 2:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 73 Comments

Two Senate sources tell The Hill that they expect Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to reach out to Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) about joining the Senate Republican conference.

“Republicans have a 52-seat Senate majority and that could swell to 54 seats depending on the final vote tally in Alaska and a runoff in Louisiana next month. Both are solidly red states.”