Major Garrett: “Immigration is, after all, the last remaining domestic priority President Obama and Boehner share. Obama and Boehner’s relationship, while not warm, is less confrontational and more routinely civil. They’ve spoken twice since mid-November. Obama called Boehner to wish him happy birthday on Nov. 17 and after the House passed the budget deal. Dealings on Obama’s State of the Union address, previously a bit nettlesome at the staff level, were routine. This doesn’t mean immigration can or will pass. But irritants of the past are precisely that. New possibilities have presented themselves, and the political and tactical climate may, several months hence, be such that Obama and Boehner find passing immigration reform irresistible.”
Why Liberals Soured on Obama
The Week: “Well, the first year of Obama’s second term was marked by a litany of scandals and failures — from the embarrassing revelations about the NSA’s spy programs, to the awful rollout of the ObamaCare website — that were most abhorrent to the party faithful… As the year wore on, those same erstwhile supporters bristled over what they viewed as a troubling foreign policy coming out of the White House.”
GOP Lawmakers Doubt Ryan Will Run for President
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) “has a choice to make,” The Hill reports.
“The Republican Budget Committee chairman is the most popular conservative in the House, and over the coming year, he will have to decide whether to seek a more powerful committee gavel, launch a bid for House leadership or take a risky leap into the crowded waters of the 2016 presidential campaign.”
“In interviews The Hill conducted with more than two dozen House Republicans from across the ideological spectrum over the last couple of weeks, many of Ryan’s colleagues said they are doubtful he will run for president in 2016. Most believe that concerns for his young family will lead him to lay claim to the job he’s always wanted: chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.”
Big Gender Gap on Most Issues
“The gender gap is alive and well in American politics. Indeed, it may be the defining characteristic of our political system as next year’s midterm elections beckon,” Gerald Seib writes.
“We’re not talking here just about the well-established pattern in which women are more likely to vote Democratic and men Republican in presidential elections. That’s true, but it appears to be only the tip of a gender-gap iceberg.”
“On virtually all the hot-button issues that bedevil Washington today–guns, health, how to fix the economy, the state of the Obama presidency–the difference between men and women is striking. And it all adds up to a large difference in what men and women prefer in next year’s congressional elections.”
Rangel Will Run Again
Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) “will run for a 23rd term representing his Harlem district and plans an announcement as early as Thursday,” the New York Daily News reports.
Said a source: “He’s decided. He’s running.”
Byrne Easily Wins in Alabama
Bradley Byrne (R) coasted to victory in Alabama’s 1st congressional district special election on Tuesday night, easily defeating Burton LeFlore (D) in the final congressional special election of 2013, Roll Call reports.
Mobile Press-Register:
“Returning from the nadir of his political career after a stinging loss
in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary, Bradley Byrne on Tuesday
won a landslide victory over Democrat Burton LeFlore in a special
election for Congress.”
Budget Deal Offers a Reprieve From Washington Paralysis
New York Times: “Something odd happened here on Tuesday. The Senate advanced a two-year bipartisan budget deal that will now surely be sent to the president for his signature later this week without waiting for a cliff, a chasm, a deadline or a shutdown to force its hand.”
“Just like that, declarations sounded in Washington that the city almost seemed to be working again. The assertions may be little solace to competing ends of the ideological spectrum that saw the budget deal as a craven capitulation to the spenders or the cutters, depending on which end was looking at it. But flawed as critics complained it was, the deal represented a break in the paralysis that has gripped the capital for years.”
Can Podesta Save Obama?
Politico: “When President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, Denis McDonough, approached John Podesta a few weeks ago about taking over the high-aggravation job of White House counselor, the biggest concern wasn’t that he would say no. After all, he had already done so twice before. Obama’s team was more worried that Podesta would say no and that word of his rejection would leak, making the White House look feckless and desperate at the end of Obama’s brutal fifth year in office. So, the circle of people in the know was kept to a small handful; it was so closely held that even the perpetually plugged-in ‘Davids’–Obama confidants Axelrod and Plouffe–weren’t consulted.”
“That Obama’s team couldn’t afford to suffer even the minor embarrassment of a possible Podesta rebuff is a measure of just how precarious things have gotten less than a year after the president’s triumphant second inauguration–and how much the White House could use the services of Podesta, the closest thing Washington has to a turnaround specialist for wayward Democratic commanders in chief.”
Latham Will Not Run Again
Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA), a top ally of Speaker John Boehner, became the third member of Congress to announce his retirement today, Roll Call reports.
The Hill: “His retirement comes as a surprise — just a year ago he’d defeated fellow Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa) in a hotly contested race, and had turned down national Republicans’ pleas to run for an open Senate seat.”
President Obama carried the district in 2012 by over four points.
Walker Mulls Eliminating the Income Tax
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) said his administration’s “ongoing discussion about taxes includes a look at whether it would be feasible to eliminate the income tax,” WisPolitics.com reports.
Said Walker: “There are many states that do very well, better than most states in the country, that have no income taxes. That’s one thing for us to look at. Is that feasible? What would that mean in terms of an economic boost? That’s not only for individuals, but small businesses in this state.”
Inside Stockman’s Condemned Office
Local officials ordered the emergency closure of an unorthodox campaign headquarters for Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX) last month, citing multiple safety violations, the Houston Chronicle reports.
TPM “has obtained photographs taken by the local officials who recently shut down Stockman’s campaign office… And the images are dirty. And dusty. And grimy.”
Is Obama Really Worse Than Bush?
The Week looks at the evidence.
Brown Won’t Rule Out Another Presidential Bid
Los Angeles Times: “If he weren’t the nation’s oldest governor, a ripe 75, Jerry Brown would automatically be counted among serious Democratic candidates for president in 2016. He boasts a household name, an impressive list of accomplishments in the country’s most populous state — a state some once deemed ungovernable — glowing national media coverage and a deep familiarity with the pitfalls and rigors of a White House bid, having run three times before.”
“The famously Delphic governor often leaves people guessing about his motivation and intentions, which leaves plenty of leeway ahead of 2016. Absent a clear-cut statement of disinterest from Brown — who sought the White House in 1976, 1980 and 1992 — some see familiar signs of a presidential-candidate-in-waiting.”
Keep Track of Retiring Lawmakers
For a complete list of retirements, see Roll Call’s excellent casualty list for the 113th Congress.
And keep track of the latest race ratings changes at the Cook Political Report.
Matheson Will Not Run Again
Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT) announced on Facebook that he “will not seek reelection to the House of Representatives.”
Roll Call: “This essentially takes his seat — the heavily Republican 4th District — out of play for Democrats… Mia Love, a top GOP recruit, came within a few hundred votes of defeating him in 2012. She promptly announced her rematch in early 2013.”
Scott’s Own Poll Shows Him Trailing
Charlie Crist (D) leads Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) by 4 points in his own internal poll, 49% to 45%, Politico reports.
“The Florida governor’s race will perhaps be the most expensive campaign of 2014 and, coming in such a key presidential battleground, might be the hottest race of the midterms.”
Wolf Will Retire from Congress
Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) will not seek an 18th term in Congress, Roll Call reports.
“Wolf’s decision puts into play a Northern Virginia seat that was only safe based on the strength of his incumbency. Democrats are almost sure to go after it. Mitt Romney narrowly carried the district, with 50 percent of the vote to President Barack Obama’s 49 percent, in 2012.”
The Hill: “There has been speculation
for months that Wolf might retire, given his age and weak fundraising efforts, but his office had insisted that he planned to run again.”
What Now for Obama?
Walter Shapiro: “The inescapable reality of the remainder of the Obama presidency is that he never again will have the congressional votes to pass liberal legislation. That leaves the president with stark choices: Does he continue to make speeches into the wind about economic inequality knowing that nothing will change during the next three years? Or does he embark on an experimental effort to find non-traditional backdoor methods to spark the economy? Does he go with partisan talking points or the quest to find Republican partners?”
