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How Much Will Obamacare Hurt Democrats?

November 5, 2013 at 9:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook:
“The noise you hear is the grinding of Democratic teeth over the
botched launch and arguably deeper design problems of the Affordable
Care Act. Democratic pols had been gleefully anticipating the negative
impact the Republican Party would incur as a result of the recent
government shutdown debacle…. Now Democrats are shaking their heads
over signs that much of any advantage they might have gained has been
effectively neutralized.”

Detroit Picks a New Mayor

November 5, 2013 at 9:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Detroit News:
“Metro Detroiters began heading to the polls Tuesday to vote for mayors
and council members in some suburbs and Detroit, whose historic
election includes the first council members selected by district in
nearly a century. In the highest-profile race, former Detroit Medical
Center CEO Mike Duggan faces Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon to see
who replaces Mayor Dave Bing and works with state-appointed Emergency
Manager Kevyn Orr.”

Clinton Shuts Out the Media Again

November 5, 2013 at 7:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton “hasn’t even started her 2016 presidential campaign yet — and she’s already shutting out the press,” the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

The decision to bar reporters from the Clinton speech before thousands of Realtors is “per her team’s request” and “isn’t typical” of the annual Realtors conference.


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Two Key Races Today

November 5, 2013 at 7:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is poised to win a second term, a rare feat for a Republican running in deep-blue New Jersey. In Virginia, an emerging swing state, longtime Democratic money-man Terry McAuliffe has built a steady lead over his deeply conservative opponent, GOP Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.”

“The two races have highlighted the GOP’s struggle to reconcile its establishment wing with its insurgent conservative class. A victory for McAuliffe would also add credibility to Democrats’ efforts to claim Virginia – once an unambiguous GOP foothold – as a toss-up state, if not Democratic-leaning.”

Rick Klein: “The result is that the two ‘off-year’ races that have long been viewed
as national harbingers are instead offering lessons primarily to a
Republican Party that’s still engaged in a spirited fight for its own
identity.”

The Fix: How to watch the exit polls in Virginia.

Butts Moves Closer to Rangel Challenge

November 5, 2013 at 5:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rev. Calvin O. Butts III (D) “has been holding behind-the-scenes meetings with clergy and Harlem leaders as he moves ahead with a congressional bid for the seat currently occupied by Charlie Rangel, who has not declared his intentions,” the New York Daily News reports.

Bill Advances to Outlaw Discrimination Against Gays

November 5, 2013 at 5:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A measure that would outlaw workplace discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity overcame a significant obstacle in the Senate on Monday as seven Republicans crossed party lines and voted to begin debate on the bill,” the New York Times reports.

“The 61-30 vote marks the first time since 1996 that the full Senate will consider a measure to extend federal nondiscrimination law to gay, lesbian and bisexual people — a stark reminder, supporters said, that as the public has come around to accepting gay rights, Congress has been slow to keep pace. ”

Roll Call: “It’s unclear what will happen to the legislation now, with Speaker John A. Boehner (R-OH) already saying he won’t support it but feeling pressure to bring the bill to the floor for a vote.”

The Week: 5 reasons Republicans oppose the measure

15 Recall Elections Today

November 5, 2013 at 5:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Joshua Spivak counts 15 officials facing recall elections today.

“The reasons for the recall span the spectrum. By far the most notable ones are in the bankrupt city of San Bernardino, where 3 officials are going before the voters — there were attempts against 10 officials in all. Other notable recalls are in Hesperia (firing of a high school coach) and Cibolo (Walmart).”

How Bush Quit Cheney

November 5, 2013 at 5:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A Washington Post review of Days of Fire by Peter Baker says the book “should become a standard reference for historians.”

“The book has few groundbreaking revelations or startling judgments. Its virtue lies in the mass of information Baker has collected and the way he has pulled it together, so that the jumble of material on the Bush years is consolidated in one smooth narrative. He has read the memoirs so you don’t have to.”

“The heart of Days of Fire lies in the changing relationship between Bush and Cheney — how Bush in the early years of his administration relied heavily on his vastly more experienced vice president, but during his second term he increasingly operated on his own, relegating Cheney to the margins. Baker draws out each development in this tangled relationship in much the same way that Robert Caro wrote about the relationship between John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

November 4, 2013 at 7:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It’s the first major race between the forces and faces of the new
Republican tea party — a tea party whose social recidivism is only
outgunned by its hostility to science and technology and innovation and
scholarship.”

— Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by Politico, campaigning in Virginia for Terry McAuliffe.

Alabama Special Election is Proxy for Battle for the GOP

November 4, 2013 at 5:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Roll Call: “With one day until the special-election runoff in Alabama’s 1st District, conservative groups are making a final push to affect the GOP contest that has become a national bellwether for Republicans.”

“Business groups are trying to boost former state Sen. Bradley Byrne over Dean Young, a tea-party-backed businessman who’s already made some controversial comments. Over the weekend, Ending Spending Inc., a PAC launched in 2010 by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, spent $102,000 in ads to promote Byrne, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.”

McAuliffe Looks to Turnout

November 4, 2013 at 5:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Whatever dim hope Cuccinelli has of an upset rests on abysmal turnout among Democrats. For months polls have shown McAuliffe, a longtime Democratic Party fixer and businessman, leading Cuccinelli in the high single digits. So McAuliffe has had a series of high-profile surrogates vouch for him the past few weeks – President Barack Obama on Sunday, Bill and Hillary Clinton before that – to remind party that they need to finish the job.”

Campaigning vs. Governing

November 4, 2013 at 12:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Times:
“A year after his reelection triumph, President Obama is facing an
awkward question from friends and foes alike: Why can’t he run the
government as well as he ran his campaign?”

Subscribe to the Podcast

November 4, 2013 at 11:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Political Wire fans have been subscribing to our new podcast at a blistering pace. Thank you!

We have two new episodes coming this week. Subscribe via ITunes or RSS and have them delivered automatically to your phone or iPod when it’s ready.

In case you missed them, here are last week’s shows with Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg:

Throwing the Bums Out is Unlikely

November 4, 2013 at 11:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Harry Enten looks at the “idea that Americans are independent, and that the anger directed at both parties right now will lead to an anti-incumbent wave for both Democrats and Republicans.”

“I won’t say that an anti-incumbent wave is impossible, but I will say that it’s not likely… [Since 1954,] there are many years in which a large number of incumbents are defeated. What you don’t see is the same number of years where incumbents of both parties are defeated. In fact, such years pretty much don’t exist.”

A Test for the GOP

November 4, 2013 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times:
“A major test of how carefully Republicans can navigate the intraparty
politics of sexuality will come on Monday, when the Senate holds a
crucial vote on a bill to outlaw workplace discrimination against gay
men, lesbians and transgender people.”

Which Party is Stronger?

November 4, 2013 at 9:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “If the polls are correct in Virginia… then we’re likely going to re-learn an important point: The sign of a healthy political party is that you can appeal to the middle without alienating the base. That is precisely what McAuliffe has done in his campaign, as he’s reached out to the state’s business middle while mobilizing the party’s liberals.”

“By contrast, Republicans appear to have two problems right now. Either they are appealing to the base, which is alienating the middle (see Virginia). Or when they appeal to the middle, they are alienating the base (see Chris Christie in New Jersey)… To win national elections, you have to be able to appeal to the middle without alienating your base, as well as appeal to the base without alienating the middle. That’s not happening inside the GOP right now.”

Ford Apologizes for Being ‘Hammered’ in Public

November 4, 2013 at 8:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Vowing to stay in office and to run in the next election, Toronto Mayor Rob Ford apologized Sunday for past public drunkenness and promised to ‘make changes’ in his life — but declined to offer any explanation for the bombshell drug-related revelations that threaten his career,” the Toronto Star reports.

Said Ford: “There’s no one to blame but myself, and I take full responsibility for it. Friends, I am the first one to admit, I am not perfect. I have made mistakes. I have made mistakes, and all I can do right now is apologize for the mistakes. I sincerely, sincerely apologize.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 4, 2013 at 8:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“That’s the closest I’ve come to getting into a fist fight with a head of state.”

— Jimmy Carter, quoted by the South Africa Sunday Times, saying he “almost got in a fight with the president of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, because he was refusing to let Aids be treated.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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