Throwing the Bums Out is Unlikely

Harry Enten looks at the “idea that Americans are independent, and that the anger directed at both parties right now will lead to an anti-incumbent wave for both Democrats and Republicans.”

“I won’t say that an anti-incumbent wave is impossible, but I will say that it’s not likely… [Since 1954,] there are many years in which a large number of incumbents are defeated. What you don’t see is the same number of years where incumbents of both parties are defeated. In fact, such years pretty much don’t exist.”