National Journal:
“The deadline to keep open the federal government was only two weeks
away, when the White House quietly floated plans for a summit between
President Obama and the four congressional leaders. The idea was to show
Obama, his sleeves rolled up, engaged as Congress lurched toward a
shutdown. But when top administration officials reached out to Capitol
Hill, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s office had a message for them:
Don’t do it. Reid’s team argued such a meeting would suggest the
Democrats were willing to negotiate when they weren’t. The White House
listened. The summit was nixed. And no serious talks have occurred
since.”
Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, trending news, a private podcast, no ads and more!
Romney Knew He Would Lose
Despite reports after the 2012 election that Mitt Romney’s campaign team was surprised they lost, John Sides reports in his new book, The Gamble, that the Romney campaign’s own internal data showed that it would lose.
“One senior Romney strategist told us that his simulations based on the campaign’s internal polls gave Romney an 18% chance of winning by the end. This same strategist told us that these simulations never showed Romney being more likely to win than Obama, even after the first debate when the polls narrowed.”
Interestingly, 270 to Win also gave Romney a 18.1% chance to win.
A Way Out?
First Read: “The White House has signaled that it is open to a short-term CR and debt-limit hike, which would meet the president’s demand that he won’t negotiate until after both are passed cleanly. After that, you could have a larger negotiation — over entitlements, the sequester, government operations for the rest of the year, and a longer debt-limit hike. Many might argue that such a short-term deal would only prolong the fight. (But isn’t a cooling-off period in order?) The question here is whether Boehner and House Republicans could take this way out.”
Stewart vs. Sebelius
First Read: “If you’re a Democrat and you’ve lost Jon Stewart, you have a problem. And that’s exactly what happened when HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius went on the Daily Show last night to talk about the glitches with the Obamacare website.”
Wonk Wire: No Obamacare enrollment numbers until November.
Carter Grandson Mulling Bid for Georgia Governor
Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal (R) “may have more than a GOP primary challenge on his hands next year,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“We’re told that state Sen. Jason Carter (D), grandson of the former president, has commissioned a poll to ‘test the political environment, given recent events,’ for a 2014 run for governor.”
Connolly Has Edge in Boston Mayoral Race
A new Boston Herald/Suffolk University poll in Boston shows John Connolly leading Martin Walsh among likely voters in the race for mayor, 41% to 34%, with 23% still undecided.
Americans Overwhelmingly Opposed to GOP Approach
A new National Journal poll reports finds Americans “are divided on who deserves blame for the government shutdown, but one thing’s certain: A solid majority thinks it’s wrong to demand changes to Obamacare as a price for reopening the government.”
Key findings: 38% say Republicans are to blame for the stalemate, 30% say it’s President Obama, and 19% say it’s both.
“But public opinion is clearer on the House GOP’s approach: Overwhelmingly, Americans think Congress should fund the federal government and deal with health care separately; and just as strongly, Americans oppose including GOP priorities–even those with which they otherwise agree–in a bargain to raise the debt ceiling.”
Inhofe Has Emergency Heart Surgery
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) “underwent emergency heart surgery in Tulsa on Friday after a routine test showed extreme blockage in five arteries,” the Oklahoman reports.
“Inhofe said it would be a few days before it is safe to fly on an airplane and he wasn’t interested in driving back to Washington while recuperating. It is not clear when the Senate will hold more roll call votes regarding the partial government shutdown.”
Many Lawmakers Don’t Believe U.S. Can Default
Real Clear Politics: “The problem for Boehner — and, therefore, the president — is that a number of GOP lawmakers don’t believe the country will in fact default if the debt ceiling is not lifted; as a result, they insist they won’t likely be spooked into raising it.”
Said Rep. Steve King: “We need to go back and redefine ‘default.’ Default would be if you couldn’t pay the interest and couldn’t manage the principle on our national debt. And that’s not going to happen. The resources are there. The cash flow is easily there to pay the interest on our debt.”
Wonk Wire: We have no idea how the Treasury pays its bills.
Quote of the Day
“I’m not elected to govern out of fear. Leadership demands that we do the hard things. This is not easy right now. We’re operating in a very difficult time. We need to step up and solve the problem.”
— Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA), quoted by the Lehigh Valley Express Times.
New York Times: “As a moderate House Republican, Dent by definition typically finds himself somewhere near the middle when the majority of his colleagues veer well to the right.”
McAuliffe Leads by Nine Points
A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli (R) by nine points among likely voters in the race for governor, 47% to 38%, with Robert Sarvis at 8%.
Said pollster Quentin Kidd: “In the closing weeks of the election, I would expect the Cuccinelli campaign to try to
convince those moderate Republicans and women to take a second look. For McAuliffe, the closing weeks are likely to be about solidifying his position and making sure his supporters turn out on Election Day, especially African-American voters.”
Conservatives are Wary of Any Deal
Robert Costa: “Speaker John Boehner may be trying to finalize a plan to raise the debt limit, but House conservatives are already skeptical of his efforts. In interviews, several of them tell me they’re unlikely to support any deal that may emerge.”
Said Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ): “They may try to throw the kitchen sink at the debt limit, but I don’t think our conference will be amenable for settling for a collection of things after we’ve fought so hard. If it doesn’t have a full delay or defund of Obamacare, I know I and many others will not be able to support whatever the leadership proposes. If it’s just a repeal of the medical-device tax, or chained CPI, that won’t be enough.”
Shutdown Shines Light on GOP Divisions
“At this point, no one looks particularly good to the public, but congressional Republicans are faring worse than Democrats and much worse than President Obama,” Dan Balz reports.
“The struggle has exposed a rift between the party’s confrontational, populist, tea party wing and its traditional business and establishment wing. These tensions reflect fundamental questions about the direction of a party whose rightward shift over the past decade has helped intensify the political conflict and changed the calculus of governance generally.”
“The conservative movement is not deeply divided over philosophy and policy… But Republicans are divided about whether to be a party of “no” or a party that can fashion a more positive vision for conservative governance. The shutdown has brought these differences into even sharper focus. But if there is an obvious resolution, party leaders haven’t found it.”
Is Obama Backing Away from No Negotiation Stance?
“Just as top Senate Democrats began to lay the groundwork to raise the U.S. government’s borrowing limit through 2014, senior White House officials refused to rule out a short-term increase. The divergent messages caused major heartburn for top Senate Democrats and gave Republicans fresh hope that they could defeat a yearlong debt ceiling hike and win concessions from President Obama in this fall’s fiscal battles,” Politico reports.
“By late Monday afternoon, nervous Senate Democrats had reached out to the White House to ensure they were on the same page — and the concerns on Capitol Hill seemed to be alleviated after senior administration officials downplayed the idea of a short-term increase.”
The Hill: Who will blink first, Obama or Boehner?
Wall Street Not Worried About Default Yet
“Wall Street is showing few signs so far that it is fearing the financial panic it has been predicting should the government default on its debt,” the New York Times reports.
“Many strategists are closely watching how much investors are willing to pay for Treasury bills that are set to come due in the days immediately after Oct. 17. Normally as the due date for a bill draws closer, it becomes more expensive, trading at less of a discount to its par value. Now, though, the bills set to pay out in the near term are getting much cheaper as investors question whether the government will be able to pay them off.”
McAuliffe Holds Solid Lead in Virginia
A new Politico poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the race for governor by 10 points, 52% to 42%.
In a three way race, McAuliffe leads by 9 points, with Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis at 12%.
Bachmann Says Obama Arming Terrorists
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) accused President Obama of arming al Qaeda militants in Syria and said it was evidence “we’re in God’s end times,” The Hill reports.
Said Bachmann: “This happened and as of today the United States is willingly, knowingly, intentionally sending arms to terrorists. Now what this says to me, I’m a believer in Jesus Christ, as I look at the End Times scripture, this says to me that the leaf is on the fig tree and we are to understand the signs of the times, which is your ministry, we are to understand where we are in God’s end times history.”
House of Indecision
National Review: “House Republican leaders met today at the Capitol, but they made little progress toward solving the fiscal crisis, or calming the GOP’s growing tensions. They remain undecided on the contours of a potential deal, and on how to sell one, especially to the conference’s bloc of skeptical conservatives.”
Said one GOP aide: “It’s the House of indecision. We don’t have the votes for a big deal, small deal, or short-term deal.”
