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Lynn Vavreck: “Split-ticket voting is quite rare for top offices like president and senator. But those who do choose candidates from different parties on Election Day have at least one thing in common: They know less about politics than people who vote the straight party line.”
“Where you live and who is running for office certainly shape the odds that you will split your ballot, but by far the best predictor is how much general political knowledge you have.”
“Sensing trouble ahead for Wisconsin’s gay marriage ban, Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen took the unusual step Friday of asking a federal judge to immediately block her own decision if she does strike down the ban,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
“Also Friday, Gov. Scott Walker (R) backed away from his previous support for the state ban on gay marriage passed in 2006, saying he didn’t know if it violated the U.S. Constitution, would still be approved by voters today or would amount to a big change for the state’s values and economy if overturned. Making clear he wanted no part of this legal battle in an election year, the Republican governor said he was focused on other priorities.”
“I have a better chance of being pope than he has of being governor.”
— GOP donor Mark Chapin Johnson, quoted by the Los Angeles Times, on California gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari (R).
First Read: “Interestingly, no additional Democrats over the long Memorial Day weekend came out for VA Secretary Eric Shinseki to resign. In fact, maybe the biggest political development was that a few veterans groups accused GOP Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), the ranking Republican on the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, of over-politicizing the VA mess when he called out these groups for refusing to demand Shinseki’s resignation.”
“Burr’s decision to criticize these groups — and the backlash it prompted — represents a classic case of political overreach. And it changes the conversation from the Obama administration’s handling of this VA story, to Republicans stepping on the political pedal, as well as why Senate Republicans blocked additional VA earlier this year.”
Morning Line: “There are two races to watch, including whether Ralph Hall, who at 91 is the oldest member of Congress, becomes the first congressional incumbent of the cycle to lose. So far, they are 139-for-139. He is running against former U.S. attorney John Ratcliffe, who is 48 and has subtly raised the issue of Hall’s age… Hall placed first in the March primary with 45 percent of the vote compared to 29 percent for Ratcliffe. Getting that extra 5 percent could be a hurdle for Hall, considering he’s the only member of Congress anyone in this district has known for 34 years.”
“The latest tea party vs. establishment battle of the primary season also takes place Tuesday in the Lone Star State in the lieutenant governor’s race. Democrats hope to contest — and win their first statewide seat in 20 years — if the tea party candidate wins. But Democrats’ candidate, Leticia van de Putte, trails in the polls, and despite being Latina and having served in the state legislature for 24 years is not well known among Latinos statewide.”
A new West Virginia poll finds Shelley Moore Capito (R) leading Natalie Tennant (D) in the U.S. Senate race by 11 points, 49% to 38% with another 13% undecided.
John Maginnis, the founder and publisher of LAPolitics.com, passed away over the weekend at his home in New Orleans. Few knew more about Louisiana politics.
We spoke to John just a few weeks ago on the Political Wire podcast. It was a great conversation.
“The CIA’s top officer in Kabul was exposed Saturday by the White House when his name was inadvertently included on a list provided to news organizations of senior U.S. officials participating in President Obama’s surprise visit with U.S. troops,” the Washington Post reports.
“The CIA’s top officer in Kabul was exposed Saturday by the White House when his name was inadvertently included on a list provided to news organizations of senior U.S. officials participating in President Obama’s surprise visit with U.S. troops.”
“A faction of Republicans including Sen. Lindsey Graham is agitating for party leaders to unveil a policy manifesto in the midterm elections, detailing for voters what the GOP would attempt with a Senate majority its members are increasingly confident they’ll achieve,” Politico reports.
“Advocates of the strategy, which has triggered a closed-door debate in recent weeks among the party’s current 45 senators, say it would serve as a firm rejoinder to Democrats casting the GOP as the ‘party of no.’ They say voters should know what they’d be getting by pulling the lever for Republicans in November.”
A new Rasmussen survey in Georgia finds Jason Carter (D) leading Gov. Nathan Deal (R) in the race for governor by seven points, 48% to 41%.
When President Obama “delivers a big foreign-policy address at West Point on Wednesday, he’ll talk about the tensions and disputes that suddenly seem to be breaking out all around the globe. But amid all the messiness, one encouraging sign he might point to is the remarkable spate of elections being staged in countries important to the U.S,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The list of places on the U.S. watch list where the core function of democracy–citizens choosing leaders–has been exercised in recent weeks is an impressive one. Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, Egypt and Colombia all have held national elections.”
“Meanwhile, India just held an election that produced a peaceful sea change in leadership in the world’s largest democracy. And in Europe, a bedrock of democratic rule, voters across the continent last weekend cast votes that will significantly change the character of the European Parliament.”
“European Union leaders are set to meet in Brussels on Tuesday evening under intense pressure to reform the way the bloc is run after insurgent parties secured notable results in four days of legislative elections ending at the weekend,” the New York Times reports.
“Many of the parties that handed a drubbing to more mainstream rivals in the voting for the European Parliament are seeking to diminish, or even dismantle, the six-decade effort to further integrate the Continent.”
“Everyone knows about the ‘Ready for Hillary’ Democrats — the rapidly proliferating parade of elected officials and activists getting behind Hillary Clinton’s increasingly likely 2016 presidential campaign,” Politico reports.
“But there’s also a smaller but increasingly vocal group making its presence felt lately — call these Democrats the ‘Wary of Hillary’ Democrats. They’re not outwardly opposing a Clinton candidacy. But they are anxious about the spectacle of a Clinton juggernaut, after seeing what happened when she ran a campaign of inevitability last time.”
A new Rasmussen survey in Oregon finds Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) leading challenger Monica Wehby (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 37%.
As Jeb Bush “weighs whether to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, he is dogged by fears of voter exhaustion with a family name indelibly linked to his older brother, a self-assured Texan who prized instinct over expertise and once acknowledged a lack of interest in slogging through long books,” the New York Times reports.
“But in ways big and small, deliberate or subconscious, the younger Mr. Bush seems to have defined himself as the anti-George W. Bush: an intellectual in search of new ideas, a serial consulter of outsiders who relishes animated debate and a probing manager who eagerly burrows into the bureaucratic details.”
Politico: “It may be the final plot line in a familial tug-of-war that traces back to their days growing up in Texas.”
“Petro Poroshenko appeared poised to win Ukraine’s presidential elections Sunday without having to enter a second-round runoff, after three exit polls showed the chocolate tycoon had won more than half the vote,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The wealthy former foreign minister won more than 55% of the vote, according to the three exit polls released Sunday night. According to the polls, he received 55.7% to 57.3% of the vote.”
A new Pew Research survey finds that 36% of the nation’s young adults ages 18 to 31–the so-called Millennial generation– now live in their parents’ home, the highest share in at least four decades.
“I don’t know how bad it is, but my sense is, it’s worse than what we know.”
— Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), quoted by the Columbus Post Dispatch, on the problems surrounding the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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