Nate Silver points out that a simple average of the four national tracking polls put President Obama 3.4 points ahead of Mitt Romney, essentially no different than a week ago, when the same technique gave him a 3.5-point lead.

“It’s at least possible that Mr. Obama’s bounce was fading — but that the attention to Mr. Romney’s ’47 percent’ comments has since given Mr. Obama renewed momentum. It will take a few more days before we can come to any sort of conclusion about this, however, especially since some of the tracking polls use long field periods and have only conducted a fraction of their interviews since Mr. Romney’s remarks were uncovered.”

First Read: “Idaho and South Dakota today are the first states to begin early-in-person voting. Also today, absentee voting begins in Minnesota, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Georgia, Arkansas, Idaho, and Maryland. This brings the total number of states already accepting ballots to 12. Thirteen additional states (South Carolina, New Jersey, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Delaware, Virginia, Louisiana, and Missouri) will begin absentee or early voting on Saturday.”

So by tomorrow, half the country will be casting votes.

Jon Stewart asks Bill Clinton: “So, give any good speeches lately?”

[Read more…]

John Avlon points out that “no one who has ever run against Mitt Romney walks away liking the guy.”

“I’ve come to believe this disconnect is rooted in Mitt Romney’s essentially businesslike approach to politics… This businesslike approach to politics also explains Mitt’s willingness to go negative. On the surface, the ‘death star’ approach of burying opponents in an avalanche of negative ads, as Romney did in Iowa and Florida, seems inconsistent with a man of deep morals and religious faith.”

“But if you believe that politics is essentially a dirty business — a necessary evil to get ahead and eventually do good, then you make a mental division: you render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s. And so going negative is simply the coin of the realm. Honor in politics is misplaced.”

Peggy Noonan: “It is true that a good debate, especially a good first one, can invigorate a candidate and lead to increased confidence, which can prompt good decisions and sensible statements. There is more than a month between the first debate and the voting: That’s enough time for a healthy spiral to begin.”

“But: The Romney campaign has to get turned around. This week I called it incompetent, but only because I was being polite. I really meant ‘rolling calamity.'”

Ann Romney complained to Radio Iowa about the Republican critics of her husband’s presidential campaign last night.

Said Romney: “Stop it. This is hard. You want to try it? Get in the ring. This is hard and, you know, it’s an important thing that we’re doing right now and it’s an important election and it is time for all Americans to realize how significant this election is and how lucky we are to have someone with Mitt’s qualifications and experience and know-how to be able to have the opportunity to run this country.”

New York Daily News: “Nielsen has finished compiling the ratings from all the networks that covered the conventions, right down to C-Span, and a higher percentage of the total TV universe tuned in to Biden than to anyone else. Specifically, Nielsen figures show Biden was watched by 14.7% of the 289.7 million people who live in U.S. television homes. That’s about 43.6 million people.”

In contrast, President Obama was second with 13.7%, or about 39.7 million, while Mitt Romney was third with 12.5%, or 36.2 million.

A new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney nationally, 50% to 43%.

Key finding: When asked if they were better off than you were four years ago, likely voters responded “almost exactly in thirds: in the poll, 31% say they are better off than four years ago, while 34% say they are worse off and 34% say they are about the same.”

Also important: “Overall, 48% say they believe the country is better off because Obama won in 2008, while 41% say the nation would be in a stronger position today if another candidate had won.”

Meanwhile, a Reason-Rupe/Princeton Survey shows Obama leading 52% to 45%.

“I think it puts a heavier burden on him in the debates to talk about what he meant.”

— Bill Clinton, in an interview on CNN, on Mitt Romney’s 47% remark.

Mitt Romney’s “path to victory is narrowing, new polling data suggest, presenting challenges for the Republican nominee at a moment when he is trying to rebound from a week of bad headlines by refocusing on federal spending,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

New York Times: “The state-by-state landscape facing Mr. Romney is more daunting than he expected by this stage in the contest. He anticipated, aides said, to be in a position of strength in at least some of the states that turned Democratic in 2008 for the first time in a generation, but few of them show signs of breaking decisively his way, and Mr. Obama still has more and clearer paths to 270 electoral votes.”

Reuters: “To have any hope of beating Obama, Romney must project a warmer image, analysts say.”

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) “turned aggressor in his first debate clash” with rival Elizabeth Warren (D), “questioning her character for claiming to be Native American and scolding her for ‘scaring women’ to win votes,” the Boston Herald reports.

Said Brown: “She checked the box claiming she was a Native American, and clearly she’s not… When you are a United States senator, you have to pass a test, and that’s one of character and honesty and truthfulness. And I believe and others believe that she’s failed that test.”

Meanwhile, Warren “defended her family history and denied trying to get special treatment for her minority status, but largely avoided returning fire for much of the hourlong debate.”

“When you express an attitude that half the country considers itself victims, that somehow they want to be dependent on government, my thinking is, maybe you haven’t gotten around a lot.”

— President Obama, quoted by the New York Times.

New NBC News/WSJ/Marist Polls show President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the key battleground states of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado.

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 42%

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 45%

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 45%

President Obama’s campaign released a new video made up entirely out-of-context clips of Mitt Romney, intended to show how the Romney campaign’s attack on Obama’s 14 year old “redistribution” comment was unfair.

[Read more…]

“The president threw in the white flag of surrender. He said he
can’t change Washington from the inside. We’re going to give him that
chance in November, he’s going outside.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico.