A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds President Obama leads Mitt Romney nationally among likely voters, 50% to 45%.
Key finding: Obama and Romney are tied, 43% to 43%, on which candidate would do better on the economy.
Said pollster Peter Hart: “Simply put, if Romney doesn’t win on dealing with the economy, he doesn’t win.”
The survey also gives Obama his highest job approval since March at 50%.
Coming next week: The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama by Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor.
“If somebody is dumb enough to ask me to go to political convention and say something, they’re gonna have to take what they get.”
— Clint Eastwood, quoted by TMZ, responding to criticisms of his speech at the Republican convention.
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Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) came out in opposition to Mitt Romney’s controversial comments that were made public in a hidden camera video, “an attempt to distance himself from a candidate that remains deeply unpopular in Massachusetts,” The Hill reports.
Meanwhile. the Hartford Courant reports U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon (R) was also quick to denounce Romney’s comments in the secret video.
“Running for president in the YouTube era, you realize you have to be very judicious in what you say. You have to be careful with your humor. You have to recognize that anytime you’re running for the presidency of the United States, you’re on.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by the New York Times, in June 16, 2007.
The complete, unedited hidden camera video from a Mitt Romney fundraiser in Florida earlier this year has now been released.
Mother Jones: “Romney is not the only one who has called for the release of the full 49-minute video. And we’re more than happy to oblige. The complete video demonstrates that Romney was not snippetized and that he was captured raw and uncut.”
Meanwhile, Forbes reports it’s illegal in twelve states — including Florida — to record covertly at least the audio portion of a conversation where all parties have not consented.
Here are the latest national polls, updated as needed throughout the day:
United Press International: Obama 49%, Romney 45%.
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 43%.
Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46%
SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48%, Romney 45%
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP: Obama 50%, Romney 46%
Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45%
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be out tonight at 6:30 pm ET.
Nate Silver‘s latest forecast has the odds of Democrats retining control of the U.S. Senate after November’s election — either by having at least 50 seats and the presidency, or 51 without it — have increased in recent weeks to a 70% chance.
“The trend toward Democrats is a relatively recent one. Part of the shift may reflect the bounce President Obama received from the Democratic convention… But our analysis also suggests that the Democratic advantage has probably been building over the past few weeks, and may not have any one root cause. Instead, Republicans risk death by a thousand cuts, with a gradual deterioration in their standing in several important races, and their inability to field optimal candidates in others.”
Just out: The Leading Man: Hollywood and the Presidential Image by Burton W. Peretti.
A federal appeals court “overturned a lower court decision that could have forced the disclosure of the donors behind some of the secret money groups flooding the airwaves with attack ads,” Politico reports.
Mark Halperin notes Mitt Romney’s decision not to apologize for his remarks on a hidden camera video “will be applauded on talk radio all day. It also keeps the story alive.”
“Speaking of which, the White House and the re-elect have many, many creative and obvious ways to keep this story going for a good long while, some of which they have already discussed internally. Watch the President’s Letterman hit for clues.”
Meanwhile, Romney will respond to the leaked video on Fox News show at 4 p.m. ET.
Nate Silver evaluates the swing states to determine which are the most strategically important and finds ten which “could play an important role in the electoral calculus.”
The most important, along with the chance it will be the one that determines the next president:
Ohio (32%), Florida (20%), Virginia (9%), Colorado (9%), Wisconsin (9%), Iowa (6%), Pennsylvania (5%), Nevada (5%), New Hampshire (3%) and Michigan (1%).
Here are the latest polls, updated as needed through the day:
Colorado: Romney 47%, Obama 45% (Rasmussen)
Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Gravis Marketing)
Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 42% (Marketing Resource Group)
New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (American Research Group)
Virginia: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (Washington Post)
We’ll have New York Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac polls in the morning from Virginia, Colorado and Wisconsin.
Just published: The Lincoln Conspiracy: A Novel by Timothy O’Brien.
“In late spring of 1865, as America mourns the death of its leader,
Washington, D.C., police detective Temple McFadden makes a startling
discovery. Strapped to the body of a dead man at the B&O Railroad
station are two diaries, two documents that together reveal the true
depth of the Lincoln conspiracy.”
“Orrin Hatch is not a bad guy. But he is an old guy… He may die before his term is through.”
— Senate candidate Scott Howell (D), quoted by ABC Salt Lake City, in a fundraising email for his challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT).
Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia told Reuters that it “really enrages me” to hear people refer to court as a “politicized court.”
Within seconds, he then seamlessly blasted Democrats who do not “stick to the text” of the U.S. Constitution.
Said Scalia: “So why should it be surprising that when you have a Democratic Party which has been trying for years to appoint people who approve of Roe v. Wade — which means people who are not originalists, who do not stick to the text, who believe in substantive due process or whatever — why should it be surprising when the Democrats have been doing that for 30 years, at least, and the Republicans have been doing the opposite for 30 years — swearing that they are going to appoint people who are not judicial activists, gonna, you know, hew to the text — why should it be surprising that you end up with a Court where the Democratic appointees are quite different from the Republican appointees?”
First Read notes an important, unintended consequence of the hidden camera Romney video:
“It’s only going to make politicians more scripted and stale. Even the folks who shell out $50,000 in contributions aren’t going to see an unguarded moment from political candidates. Everything — and we mean everything — is going to be considered for public consumption.”
Andrew Golis has advice for politicians: “Turn on a camera at all times.”
The Week says Mitt Romney “is at a decided low point” but it’s not too late to fix things.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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