A WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race by five points, 48% to 43%.
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Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Life is that gift from God. I think that even when life begins in that
horrible situation of rape, that it is something God intended to happen.”
— Indiana U.S. Senate candidate Richard Mourdock (R), at a debate tonight with Rep. Joe Donnelly (D).
GOP Aide Thinks Romney Will Lose Nevada
A top adviser to Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) said Mitt Romney will lose Nevada this year, the Las Vegas Sun reports.
Said Pete Ernaut: “I think Obama will carry the state somewhere (between 1-3 percentage points), something like that.”
Is This Trump’s Bombshell?
Donald Trump “is to claim that he has unearthed divorce papers of Michelle Obama and the President,” the Daily Mail reports.
“It is alleged that the eccentric real estate mogul will claim that the documents show the First Lady and the President were at one point in their two decades of marriage seriously considering splitting up.”
Trump claimed earlier today that he was set to make an announcement on Wednesday that would be “bordering on gigantic” and that it could change the presidential race.
Reid Says He’s a “One-Man Wrecking Crew”
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) called himself a “one-man wrecking crew” on Mitt Romney’s refusal to release his tax returns and warned of “17 angry old white men” spending vast sums on political advertising as he tried to rouse Democratic voters, the Las Vegas Sun reports.
Reid added that Romney was a “plastic man running for president who changes his position every chance he gets. He isn’t someone who should represent this country.”
Poll Shows Obama Solid in the Battleground States
The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama moving slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%.
However, Obama “maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes.”
Other tracking polls: IBD/TIPP shows Obama up 47% to 45%, Rasmussen shows Romney leading 50% to 46%, Gallup has Romney ahead 51% to 46% and UPI/CVoter has the race tied at 48% to 48%.
Interest Grows in Presidential Campaign
A new Pew Research poll finds that 63% of the public says the presidential campaign is interesting, while 28% say it is dull. Last month, 53% found the campaign interesting.
From January through June, majorities said the campaign was dull, and no more than about four-in-ten found it interesting.
It May Come Down to Ohio
Nate Silver: “Unlikely does not equal impossible, but Ohio is central enough in the
electoral math that it now seems to matter as much as the other 49
states put together. I am not sure whether I should be congratulating
you or consoling you if you happen to be reading this in Toledo.”
Trump Claims Obama Bombshell
Donald Trump told Fox News that he’ll reveal “very big” news about President Obama by Wednesday but declined to give any hints about his plan.
Said Trump: “Something very, very big concerning the president of the United States. It’s going to be very big. I know one thing — you will cover it in a very big fashion.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Anybody who thinks those states are in the bag is half in the bag themselves.”
— Obama adviser David Axelrod, quoted by Greg Sargent, about Mitt Romney locking up North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida.
He also noted, “We have added millions to TV spending in each of these states. We are doubling down.”
Visualizing Political History
Just released: A Visual History of the U.S. House.
Other highly recommended visual histories: The Presidency, U.S. Senate, Democratic Party, Republican Party and the Supreme Court.
Why Romney May Win the Popular Vote
John Ellis: “The great story of this election is Obama’s collapsing support among non-Latino whites. Nowhere is this collapse more….complete than in the Southern states. That downdraft has taken North Carolina off the table and, I think, dooms Obama’s efforts in Virginia and in Gold Coast and I-40 Florida. Those three states all lean Romney in my view…”
“I’m assuming that Obama runs at 36-37% among non-Latino white voters (75% of the total vote, in all likelihood). That puts him at 27-28% of the total vote. If he does exactly as well as he did last time among non-white voters, he adds 21% to his national vote total. And he falls short of a majority.”
“So it may be that we end up with a Romney win nationally and an Obama win in the Electoral College.”
Is Romney Winning or Bluffing?
Jonathan Chait: “In recent days, the vibe emanating from Mitt Romney’s campaign has grown downright giddy. Despite a lack of any evident positive momentum over the last week — indeed, in the face of a slight decline from its post-Denver high — the Romney camp is suddenly bursting with talk that it will not only win but win handily. (‘We’re going to win,’ said one of the former Massachusetts governor’s closest advisers. ‘Seriously, 305 electoral votes.'”
“This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Romney’s Steep Path to 270
Charlie Cook: “Not all of the states in this Toss-Up column are equal. Most private polls show Romney with low single-digit leads in North Carolina and Virginia. For the sake of argument, let’s give Romney both states, adding 28 additional electoral votes to the 191 that Romney already led in, for a total of 219–51 short of a victory.”
“At the same time, Obama has a lead in Nevada that is wider than any advantage that Romney has in North Carolina and Virginia, so let’s add the Silver State’s six electoral votes to the Obama 237, bringing his total to 243, 27 short of 270.”
“That leaves six remaining states — Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), and Wisconsin (10) — with a total of 76; Obama needs 27 of the 76 while Romney needs 51. But the challenge for Romney isn’t just that he needs to win two-thirds of the “true” Toss-Up state electoral votes. It’s that in five of the six (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin) Obama is still leading in most polling, particularly the last two, while in Florida, it seems awfully close to dead even. If Obama carries Ohio and Wisconsin, where he is ahead in most polling, he gets the 270 with one electoral vote to spare, so Romney could sweep Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire and still come up short. No matter how you cut it, Ohio is the pivotal state, and it isn’t just the history of having gone with every winner from 1964 on and with no Republican ever capturing the White House without it.”
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground:
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Mellman)
Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)
New Hampshire: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)
Rest of World Favors Obama
A BBC World Service poll in 21 countries finds sharply higher overseas approval ratings for President Obama than Mitt Romney, 50% to 9%.
Only Pakistan’s respondents said they would prefer to see Romney win November’s election.
Obama’s Closing Message
President Obama put out a 60-second ad in the seven states his campaign thinks will decide the election: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Wisconsin.
National Journal reports the Obama campaign also released a 20-page “Blueprint for America’s Future.”
Mark Halperin: “As consultants of both parties will tell you, convincing voters a candidate has a plan is far more important than the details of said plan. Romney has made some progress on this front — now it is the President’s turn.”
Down to Just Seven States
“The two presidential campaigns are sounding sharply different notes about how they can get to 270 electoral votes, but beneath the post-debate bravado from both sides there is a rough consensus about the shape of the race in its final two weeks,” Politico reports.
“The main battlegrounds: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Wisconsin. The late inclusion of Wisconsin on this list reflects a bet by Romney — buoyed by some polls showing an opportunity for him there — that he can turn a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.”
“Republicans are genuinely intrigued by the prospect of a strike in
Pennsylvania and… are considering going up on TV
there outside of the expensive Philadelphia market. But what Romney
officials worry about, both in Pennsylvania and Michigan, is that if
they put some cash down or use precious hours to send their candidate
there Obama will respond by crushing their offensive with a big ad buy
of his own.”
