Why Romney May Win the Popular Vote

John Ellis: “The great story of this election is Obama’s collapsing support among non-Latino whites. Nowhere is this collapse more….complete than in the Southern states. That downdraft has taken North Carolina off the table and, I think, dooms Obama’s efforts in Virginia and in Gold Coast and I-40 Florida. Those three states all lean Romney in my view…”

“I’m assuming that Obama runs at 36-37% among non-Latino white voters (75% of the total vote, in all likelihood). That puts him at 27-28% of the total vote. If he does exactly as well as he did last time among non-white voters, he adds 21% to his national vote total. And he falls short of a majority.”

“So it may be that we end up with a Romney win nationally and an Obama win in the Electoral College.”