A new Washington Post/Kaiser poll finds that voters in three critical swing states — Florida, Ohio and Virginia — broadly oppose the sweeping changes to Medicare proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan and, by big margins, favor President Obama over Mitt Romney on the issue.
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It’s Not Undecided Voters Who Will Decide the Election
Ezra Klein: “This election will probably be decided by a tiny fraction of the electorate in eight or nine states. The undecided voters in those states are popularly portrayed as people who just can’t make up their minds. But that’s not quite right. They aren’t so much ‘undecided’ as uninterested and, frankly, uninformed; in political-science parlance — and SNL ads — they are ‘low information’ voters.”
Businessweek looks inside the mind of the independent voter.
What a Romney Loss Would Do to Republicans
Reid Wilson: “If Romney does lose this year, blame will quickly shift to the Republican presidential nominee himself, his shortcomings, and his ability to articulate a conservative vision for the country. And the fallout from a Romney loss has the potential to reverberate through the Republican Party for a decade.”
Did Super PACs Not Matter?
Jonathan Chait: “One of the dogs that hasn’t barked in this campaign is the massive financial advantage Mitt Romney was expected to enjoy on account of nearly unlimited funds available to him from conservative Superpacs. Yet, even including the efforts of outside groups, Obama has been out-advertising Romney in the key swing states…”
“The full story of how the financial tsunami failed to strike has yet to be untangled, but bits and pieces have dribbled out over recent days.”
Obama at the Kitchen Table
President Obama has a new ad out this morning that Alex Burns says “has the feeling of a closing argument.”
Talking direct to the camera for two minutes, Obama outlines a four-point agenda to restore “economic patriotism” telling viewers, “If I could sit down with you, in your living room or around the kitchen table, here’s what I’d say.”
First Read: “This new Obama spot has the feeling of a closing TV ad 10 days out from
Election Day because, well, the Obama camp believes we’re really 10 days
out — or we’re already there. Indeed, voters in 30 states — including
the battleground states of Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina,
Wisconsin, and Virginia — are now casting ballots, either via absentee
or early in-person voting,”
Debates Become Very Important for Romney
“The kickoff presidential debate Wednesday in Denver is shaping up as do-or-die time for Mitt Romney, with the pressure intensifying this week after a flurry of swing-state polls showed President Barack Obama opening up a sizable lead,” Politico reports.
“Republicans, fretting about dwindling days for Romney to turn around his campaign, fear that if their nominee doesn’t come away with a decisive first-debate victory, he’ll continue to spiral downward and lose his last, best shot for a comeback.”
“The fear among donors and strategists: a break-even or so-so performance would subject Romney to a self-reinforcing cycle of criticism and pessimism in his own party that will send other Republicans fleeing and make it difficult for Romney to project a closing argument against Obama over the drumbeat of why-are-you-losing questions.”
Amy Walter: “At next week’s debate, the pressure is on Romney to make something happen. The pressure is on Obama to make sure nothing happens.”
The Evolving Statements on Libya
Washington Post: “In any kind of confused overseas event, initial reports are often wrong. But the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, in which four Americans were killed, including the ambassador, is a case study of how an administration can carefully keep the focus as long as possible on one storyline — and then turn on a dime when it is no longer tenable.”
“For political reasons, it certainly was in the White House’s interests to not portray the attack as a terrorist incident, especially one that took place on the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Instead the administration kept the focus on what was ultimately a red herring — anger in the Arab world over anti-Muslim video posted on YouTube. With key phrases and message discipline, the administration was able to conflate an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Egypt — which apparently was prompted by the video — with the deadly assault in Benghazi.”
First Read: “The most charitable explanation for these evolving statements is that the information the administration received simply changed or wasn’t complete. The most uncharitable explanation is that the White House was slow to admit the attack was terrorism due to the upcoming election.”
What Mormonism Tells Us About Mitt Romney
Jon Meacham looks at the personal and political implications of Mitt Romney’s religion and how it could now be the key to a political comeback.
“By cultural and theological conditioning, Romney expects life to be difficult, even confounding — hence the need for the analytical skills of a management consultant. Mormons are accustomed to conflict and expect persecution. The Mormon sense of destiny gives followers a part in a divine story, a larger saga of the conflict between good and evil, infusing their lives with both great purpose and keen pragmatism. Viewing Romney through the lens of the Mormon understanding of history helps explain his ambition, his devotion to personal liberty and his comfort with expediency…. As a devout Mormon leader, Romney knows his church history, and he knows that difficulty and doubt are inherent elements of life. The key thing is to remain faithful, to serve, to press ahead — to the next territory that might welcome you, to the next voter who might decide to give you a chance.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Frankly at this early stage, polls go up, polls go down.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by ABC News, apparently not aware the election is 41 days away.
An Inside Look at Eliot Spitzer’s Fall
Just published: Journal of the Plague Year: An Insider’s Chronicle of Eliot Spitzer’s Short and Tragic Reign by Lloyd Constantine.
An intimate account of the 17 months preceding Gov. Eliot Spitzer revelations that he had used prostitutes and “the futile sixty-one-hour battle waged by the author and the governor’s wife to persuade Spitzer not to resign.”
Fact Checkers Imposed a Bachmann Quota
The Washington Post reports that Jim Drinkard, an Associated Press editor who oversees the wire service’s fact-checking work, told the National Press Club, “We had to have a self-imposed Michele Bachmann quota in some of those debates.”
Drinkard later clarified that there wasn’t an actual numerical quota on Bachmann, it’s just that if they had gone back and vetted all her claims that looked dicey, the result would “overload” the story.
Said Drinkard: “Often she was just more prone to statements that just didn’t add up.”
Romney Goes All In to Soften His 47% Remarks
A source tells Greg Sargent that, beginning on Friday, the Romney campaign will run only his new ad in nine swing states in an attempt to show concern for the 47% of citizens he said in a hidden camera video would never vote for him.
That said, the DNC already has a very effective response.
Obama Mulls Competing for Arizona
President Obama’s campaign is considering competing in Arizona, the AP reports.
“Obama looked at competing in Arizona in 2008, but decided against it because of the support there for home state Sen. John McCain, the GOP nominee. Obama still won 45 percent of the vote.”
“This year, Obama’s team talked early on about running in Arizona, which offers 11 electoral votes, but it never did. Now, with an internal Democratic poll showing Obama narrowly leading Romney, Obama’s team might make a play for the state that has seen a 160,000 increase in voter registrations by Democratic-leaning Hispanics over the past four years.”
Connecticut Absentee Voters Get Blank Ballots
Mother Jones: “If you’re overseas and voting by mail in Connecticut this November, grab an aspirin and a pen with lots of ink. The state’s Supreme Court hadn’t resolved a partisan scuffle over who gets to be listed first on the ballot this year before overseas absentee ballots were dropped in the mail, so those voters will have to write in all the candidates’ names themselves.”
How Bill Clinton Could Be President Again
Bill Clinton told Piers Morgan that he could be president again, just not in the United States.
Said Clinton: “There are only two countries I’m eligible to run for the leadership position is if I move to Ireland and buy a house, I can — I can run for president of Ireland, because of my Irish heritage.”
“And because I was born in Arkansas, which is part of the Louisiana Purchase, any person anywhere in the world that was born in a place that ever was part of the French empire, if you move to — if you live in France for six months and speak French, you can run for president.”
“However, I once polled very well in a French presidential race. And I said, you know, this is great, but that’s the best I’d ever do because once they heard my broken French with a Southern accent, I would drop into single digits within a week and I’d be toast.”
Senate Republicans May Now Support Akin
The NRSC issued a statement clarifying its support for Rep. Todd Akin (R) in the Missouri U.S. Senate race “and suggesting it might spend money to help elect him, after saying a month ago that it would not do so,” the Washington Post reports.
“The NRSC said after Akin’s controversial comments about ‘legitimate rape‘ last month that it would not spend money on his behalf this fall. The hope at the time was that the threat would force Akin out of the race and Republicans could replace him with a more electable nominee. It didn’t work, though, and the deadline for Akin to exit the race passed Tuesday.”
Latest Senate Polls
Here are the latest U.S. Senate race polls, updated as needed throughout the day:
Connecticut: Murphy (D) 48%, McMahon (R) 42% (PPP)
Florida: Nelson (D) 53%, Mack (R) 39% (Quinnipiac)
Maryland: Cardin (D) 50%, Bongino (R) 22%, Sobhani (I) 21% (Gonzales)
Massachusetts: Warren (D) 46%, Brown (R) 46% (Rasmussen)
Nevada: Berkely (D) 48%, Heller (R) 44% (PPP)
Ohio: Brown (D) 50%, Mandel (R) 40% (Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Casey (D) 49%, Smith (R) 43% (Quinnipiac)
Meanwhile, the Votemaster has created a fascinating chart showing which state is the current “tipping point” for Senate control.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“If we have to issue horse blinders to everyone on our campaign staff, we will.”
— Obama spokesperson Jen Psaki, quoted by Politicker, on the President Obama’s unexpectedly good poll numbers.
