Both campaigns are attempting to lower expectations for next week’s debates, but First Read says “here’s the only expectation you need to know: Romney needs a game-changer, while Obama needs a split decision. That’s what happens when one person is behind and the other is ahead.”

Charlie Cook: “If the presidential race stays on its current course for another week or 10 days, Romney faces the very real prospect that Republican donors, super PACs, and other parts of the GOP support structure will begin to shift resources away from helping him and toward a last-ditch effort to win a Senate majority–which once seemed very likely–and to protect the party’s House majority.”

Charles Krauthammer: “His unwillingness to go big, to go for the larger argument, is simply astonishing. For six months, he’s been matching Obama small ball for small ball… When you’re behind, however, safe is fatal.”

Dallas Morning News: “For all the talk about whether Mitt Romney should distance himself from George W. Bush — and the policies of the last GOP White House — a new survey shows that the former president actually has better favorability ratings than the Republican nominee.”

The most recent Bloomberg poll shows Bush with a 46% to 49% favorable rating as compared to Romney’s 43% to 50%.

Rep. Todd Akin (R) said Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D) demeanor during their debate last week was not as “ladylike” as it was when she faced off with Sen. Jim Talent (R) in 2006, the Kansas City Star reports.

Said Akin: “I think we have a very clear path to victory, and apparently Claire McCaskill thinks we do, too, because she was very aggressive at the debate, which was quite different than it was when she ran against Jim Talent. She had a confidence and was much more ladylike (in 2006), but in the debate on Friday she came out swinging, and I think that’s because she feels threatened.”

The RNC “has abruptly cut ties to a consulting firm hired for get-out-the-vote efforts in seven presidential election swing states after Florida prosecutors launched an investigation into possible fraud in voter registration forms,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Working through state parties, the RNC has sent more than $3.1 million this year to Strategic Allied Consulting, a company formed in June by Nathan Sproul, an Arizona voting consultant. Sproul has operated other firms that have been accused in past elections of improprieties designed to help Republican candidates, including dumping registration forms filled out by Democrats, but none of those allegations led to any criminal charges.”

Here are the latest national polls, updated as needed through the day:

Fox News: Obama 48%, Romney 43%

Gallup: Obama 50%, Romney 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 46%, Romney 46%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 49%, Romney 42%

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Iowa: Romney 47%, Obama 46% (TIR-Voter/Consumer Research)

Virginia: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Suffolk University)

North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (WSJ/NBC)

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, Romney 44%(WSJ/NBC)

Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (WSJ/NBC)

In a memo sent to CNN, longtime Mitt Romney adviser Beth Myers sought to lower expectations heading into next Wednesday’s debate against President Obama.

Among the reasons: President Obama is “widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history” and this will be “the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first.”

She also suggested that Obama will “use his ample rhetorical gifts and debating experience to one end: attacking Mitt Romney.”

Jonathan Chait comments on why President Obama’s new ad may seal Mitt Romney’s fate.

“What’s devastating about the ad, aside from the juxtaposition of Romney’s words against photos of regular Americans, is something I only noticed the second time I watched it. It’s the sound of silverware clinking on china in the background as Romney speaks. That detail contrasts the atmosphere Romney inhabits with the one in which most Americans live. You can tell, even though you’re not seeing this, that the remarks are being made to people enjoying a formal dinner.”

“The damage of the remarks is twofold. Obviously, it deeply reinforces the worst stereotypes voters have of Romney. Indeed, the fact that he is currently running ads trying to make the case that he does care about all of America testifies to the grim position in which Romney finds himself… Worse still, the comments destroy Romney’s fundamental credibility. Here America sees what he says behind closed doors.”

“Well, he could fall off the stage.”

— Obama traveling press secretary Jen Psaki, in what BuzzFeed calls “an almost comical attempt” to lower expectations for President Obama in next week’s debate with Mitt Romney.

As only he can do, Samuel L. Jackson urges voters to support President Obama.

[Read more…]

The Washington Post reports there are 13 projections in the new issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, which is published by the American Political Science Association. Eight of them project that President Obama will win the popular vote; five say the popular vote will go to Mitt Romney.

The Week looks at the hurdles in Mitt Romney’s path to victory in the Buckeye state.

A new Howey/DePauw poll in Indiana shows Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) with a small lead over Richard Mourdock (R), 40% to 38%, with Libertarian candidate Andrew Horning getting 7% support.

The presidential race isn’t nearly as close with Mitt Romney ahead of President Obama by double-digits, 52% to 40%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Rep. Steve King (R-IA) hanging on to a three point lead over challenger Christie Vilsack (D), 48% to 45%.

A Vilsack internal poll shows similar results with King leading by two points, 46% to 44%.

Mother Jones has obtained a 1985 video in which Mitt Romney explained that Bain Capital’s goal was to identify hidden value in companies, buy significant stakes in these businesses, and then “harvest them at a significant profit” within five to eight years.

Andrew Sullivan: “This is not the ’47 percent’ bombshell. It just shows what Bain Capital was about: rewarding its shareholders by “harvesting” companies. That word is clinical. And look: there’s nothing evil or wrong about Bain. It did what it does, it has had some successes and failures, and it’s not a crime to make money this way. But it isn’t business, as Romney concedes, so much as finance.”

[Read more…]

Nate Silver says there “looks to be about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Romney will win, but also about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Obama will actually beat his 2008 margin in the popular vote. The smart money is on an outcome somewhere in the middle – as it has been all year. But if you can conceive of a Romney comeback – and you should account for that possibility – you should also allow for the chance that things could get really out of hand, and that Mr. Obama could win in a borderline landslide.”