David Frum: “Political science proclaims, ‘debates don’t matter.’ After this election, we may need to retire a lot of political science.”

Here are the most recent national polls, updated as needed:

DailyKos/SEIU/Public Policy Polling: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Gallup: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

American Research Group: Romney 48%, Obama 47%

Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 48%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 45%, Romney 45%

Washington Times/Zogby: Obama 45%, Romney 45%

A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R) edging challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) by four points, 47% to 43%.

A new Western New England University poll finds Warren with a five point lead, 50% to 45%.

A new University of Massachusetts poll finds Warren with a two point lead, 48% to 46%.

First Read: “More than a week ago, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie predicted on Meet the Press that the entire narrative of the presidential contest would change after the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney. And White House senior adviser David Plouffe responded to Christie’s pronouncement this way: ‘If it’s going to fundamentally change, that means in seven or 10 days from now you’ll see states like Ohio tied, states like Iowa tied. Because that’s what really matters here.'”

“After some of the first polls since that debate (including Pew), Christie — who campaigns with Romney today — looks pretty prescient. But the point Plouffe made is the important development to watch in the coming days. Will the polling out of Ohio and Iowa, especially the ones conducted a few days after the debate, show a dramatically different race? Or will they show, despite some tightening, that Obama still holds the advantage on those states? If Ohio is in Obama’s column, it is VERY difficult for Romney to get to 270 electoral votes; he can do it without Ohio, but it’s hard. We’ll find out later this week where things stand in the Buckeye State.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times writes that Romney is making a big push in Ohio over the next couple of days.

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds Mitt Romney with his highest personal popularity of the election campaign — but not by enough to lift his head above water, nor to surpass President Obama, who reached his own best favorability rating of the season.

Romney is now seen favorably by 47% of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51%; Obama’s rating is better, 55% to 44%.

Amy Walter: “The good news for Romney: He’s seen a boost in his favorability ratings. The bad news: More still see him unfavorably than favorably. There have only been four presidential candidates in recent history who were underwater in favorability, at least briefly. All lost. John Kerry and Jimmy Carter in September, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush in October.”

Andrew Sullivan: “The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing. Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now…”

“I’ve never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before… I’m trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it’s hard to see how a president and his party recover. I’m not giving up. If the lies and propaganda of the last four years work even after Obama had managed to fight back solidly against them to get a clear and solid lead in critical states, then reality-based government is over in this country again. We’re back to Bush-Cheney, but more extreme. We have to find a way to avoid that. Much, much more than Obama’s vanity is at stake.”

Bloomberg TV has an interesting piece on the relative cost of electoral votes for the presidential campaigns.

Politico reports a “family intervention” just before the first presidential debate chnaged things up dramatically inside the Romney campaign.

“The family pushed for a new message, putting an emphasis on a softer and more moderate image for the GOP nominee — a ‘let Mitt be Mitt’ approach they believed more accurately reflected the looser, generous and more approachable man they knew. Chief strategist Stuart Stevens — whom the family held responsible for allowing Romney’s personal side to be obscured by an anti-Obama economic message — has seen his once wide-ranging portfolio ‘fenced in’ to mainly the debates, and the television advertising that is his primary expertise, according to campaign officials. Tagg Romney, channeling his mother’s wishes, is taking a much more active role in how the campaign is run.”

“The family rebellion, long building despite Mitt Romney’s initial reluctance to change, reached a climax in September, amid mounting evidence that the status quo was doomed to failure. The course correction came after internal polls showed him losing nearly every swing state and a loud chorus of second-guessing among prominent conservatives.”

A new Obama ad mocks Mitt Romney for getting tough on Big Bird.
The spot is running nationally.

[Read more…]

BuzzFeed: “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s scathing attacks on everything from Mitt Romney’s personal integrity to his devotion to his faith won’t be going away for one simple reason, people close to the Democrat say: Reid personally, deeply loathes Mitt Romney.”

“Reid, a fellow Mormon and one-time boxer who has never been known as much of an orator, has emerged unexpectedly this year as the Democrats’ most effective attack dog, doing particular damage to Romney with questions and innuendo about his personal tax returns. With the election approaching fast, the Nevada senator seems to be looking for new excuses to throw a right hook.”

Jon Ralston: “The piece quotes someone as saying no one put Reid up to his public
outbursts, inlcuding his repeated pressing of Romney on his taxes.
That’s not only true, but I understand some of the Obama folks at times
have wondered if Reid has gone too far.”

USA Today‘s Susan Page told the PBS Newhour that the new Gallup daily tracking poll will show Mitt Romney and President Obama are “virtually tied” when it switches from registered voters to likely voters beginning tomorrow.

Obama held a 5 percentage-point lead among registered voters in today’s poll release.

Paul Ryan abruptly ended an interview with ABC12 in Flint, Michigan after the reporter attempted to suggest that Ryan’s proposed tax cut plan was his solution to lower gun-related violence.

[Read more…]

A new Mason-Dixon poll in North Dakota finds Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rick Berg (R) in a dead heat in their U.S. Senate race, 47% to 47%.

Missouri gubernatorial candidate Dave Spence (R) is out with a new ad that misspells the word “governor” when directing viewers to “spenceforgoverner.com.”

[Read more…]

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed:

Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Michigan: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Foster McCollum)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (EPIC-MRA)

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Susquehanna)

Maggie Haberman: “1) Romney must show that Denver wasn’t a fluke … 2) Polls must show the race is competitive in Ohio… 3) Paul Ryan needs to do well in his debate… 4) Romney’s paid media strategy must improve… 5) Romney must stop playing small ball… few national candidates have spent more time talking process than Romney… 6) Obama needs to make a mistake.”

New York Times: “Under the tutelage of David Axelrod, the president’s chief strategist who is personally overseeing the preparations, Mr. Biden will be counseled on how to avoid Mr. Obama’s mistakes and even correct them with a more aggressive prosecution of the Republican ticket. Mr. Axelrod’s involvement highlights the stakes the Obama campaign places on the debate, and Mr. Biden has been reading ‘Young Guns,’ the book co-written by Mr. Ryan, and practicing attack lines that Mr. Obama avoided. The focus on Mr. Biden comes as the campaign tries to diagnose what went wrong in Denver and what to do about it. Advisers had seen two presidents during practice debates, one who had been listless and passive two nights before and another energetic and aggressive the next night. It turned out the former was the one who showed up in Denver. He kept looking down and was not using the lines they had practiced assailing Mitt Romney, who kept the president on the defensive and presented a forceful case against his re-election.”