Republicans no longer think they’re going to retake the Senate, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll, “a stunning drop in optimism for a party that began 2012 confident it would regain control of the chamber.”

Just 4% of GOP insiders rate their chances as “high,” a free fall in confidence from February when 66% of Republicans were bullish they’d win the four seats necessary to take control.

Rick Klein: “He’s got ’em just where he wants ’em… or something like that. We’re about a week away from the Mitt Romney comeback – or at least the Mitt Romney comeback story. The race is bound to tighten again, and the first debate is the best opportunity to drive that tightening, from the challenger’s perspective. Just as conventional wisdom is that President Obama is currently leading the race, conventional wisdom also says that Romney will bounce back. The race can’t be over yet because it’s not over yet, and Romney is primed to be the beneficiary of that dynamic.”

Jonathan Chait: “In what you might regard as an unhealthy sign for Mitt Romney’s campaign prospects, conservatives have turned to debating the question of who is to blame for nominating this man in the first place. Arch-conservatives Erick Erickson and Ben Domenech blame the moderate establishment for foisting Romney upon the base; relative moderates Ross Douthat and Daniel Larison blame the conservatives. Oddly, nobody seems interested in claiming credit for Romney’s nomination.”

“The case for Romney, such as it is, falls to his anonymous advisers, who tell Politico that he is a brilliant and wonderful man but sadly bad at politics… Being terrible at running for office sounds like a pretty serious drawback for a presidential nominee!”

“I mean, this is somebody who kind of makes Michele Bachmann look like a hippie.”

— Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), on Morning Joe, saying challenger Todd Akin (R) is to the far right of the Republican Party.

Both campaigns are attempting to lower expectations for next week’s debates, but First Read says “here’s the only expectation you need to know: Romney needs a game-changer, while Obama needs a split decision. That’s what happens when one person is behind and the other is ahead.”

Charlie Cook: “If the presidential race stays on its current course for another week or 10 days, Romney faces the very real prospect that Republican donors, super PACs, and other parts of the GOP support structure will begin to shift resources away from helping him and toward a last-ditch effort to win a Senate majority–which once seemed very likely–and to protect the party’s House majority.”

Charles Krauthammer: “His unwillingness to go big, to go for the larger argument, is simply astonishing. For six months, he’s been matching Obama small ball for small ball… When you’re behind, however, safe is fatal.”

Dallas Morning News: “For all the talk about whether Mitt Romney should distance himself from George W. Bush — and the policies of the last GOP White House — a new survey shows that the former president actually has better favorability ratings than the Republican nominee.”

The most recent Bloomberg poll shows Bush with a 46% to 49% favorable rating as compared to Romney’s 43% to 50%.

Rep. Todd Akin (R) said Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D) demeanor during their debate last week was not as “ladylike” as it was when she faced off with Sen. Jim Talent (R) in 2006, the Kansas City Star reports.

Said Akin: “I think we have a very clear path to victory, and apparently Claire McCaskill thinks we do, too, because she was very aggressive at the debate, which was quite different than it was when she ran against Jim Talent. She had a confidence and was much more ladylike (in 2006), but in the debate on Friday she came out swinging, and I think that’s because she feels threatened.”

The RNC “has abruptly cut ties to a consulting firm hired for get-out-the-vote efforts in seven presidential election swing states after Florida prosecutors launched an investigation into possible fraud in voter registration forms,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Working through state parties, the RNC has sent more than $3.1 million this year to Strategic Allied Consulting, a company formed in June by Nathan Sproul, an Arizona voting consultant. Sproul has operated other firms that have been accused in past elections of improprieties designed to help Republican candidates, including dumping registration forms filled out by Democrats, but none of those allegations led to any criminal charges.”

Here are the latest national polls, updated as needed through the day:

Fox News: Obama 48%, Romney 43%

Gallup: Obama 50%, Romney 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 46%, Romney 46%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 49%, Romney 42%

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Iowa: Romney 47%, Obama 46% (TIR-Voter/Consumer Research)

Virginia: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Suffolk University)

North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (WSJ/NBC)

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, Romney 44%(WSJ/NBC)

Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (WSJ/NBC)

In a memo sent to CNN, longtime Mitt Romney adviser Beth Myers sought to lower expectations heading into next Wednesday’s debate against President Obama.

Among the reasons: President Obama is “widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history” and this will be “the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first.”

She also suggested that Obama will “use his ample rhetorical gifts and debating experience to one end: attacking Mitt Romney.”

Jonathan Chait comments on why President Obama’s new ad may seal Mitt Romney’s fate.

“What’s devastating about the ad, aside from the juxtaposition of Romney’s words against photos of regular Americans, is something I only noticed the second time I watched it. It’s the sound of silverware clinking on china in the background as Romney speaks. That detail contrasts the atmosphere Romney inhabits with the one in which most Americans live. You can tell, even though you’re not seeing this, that the remarks are being made to people enjoying a formal dinner.”

“The damage of the remarks is twofold. Obviously, it deeply reinforces the worst stereotypes voters have of Romney. Indeed, the fact that he is currently running ads trying to make the case that he does care about all of America testifies to the grim position in which Romney finds himself… Worse still, the comments destroy Romney’s fundamental credibility. Here America sees what he says behind closed doors.”

“Well, he could fall off the stage.”

— Obama traveling press secretary Jen Psaki, in what BuzzFeed calls “an almost comical attempt” to lower expectations for President Obama in next week’s debate with Mitt Romney.

As only he can do, Samuel L. Jackson urges voters to support President Obama.

[Read more…]

The Washington Post reports there are 13 projections in the new issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, which is published by the American Political Science Association. Eight of them project that President Obama will win the popular vote; five say the popular vote will go to Mitt Romney.