A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows Rick Santorum has a commanding lead in the Republican presidential race with 45%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 18%, Mitt Romney at 16% and Ron Paul at 14%.
Texas still doesn’t have all of its congressional and legislative maps in place so May 29 appears to be the earliest possible primary date.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by just four points in the GOP presidential race, 37% to 33%, followed by Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.
Key finding: “The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.”
With just over a week to go before the Michigan primary, ABC News reports Mitt Romney “is enlisting the help of one of his highest-wattage surrogates: Donald Trump.”
“The real estate mogul is preparing to spread his pro-Romney, anti-Rick Santorum message in a series of radio interviews this week on local stations from Traverse City to Detroit.”
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Newt Gingrich conceded that losing his home state of Georgia in the Super Tuesday primaries on March 6 would “badly” weaken his candidacy, CNN reports.
However, Gingrich stopped short of saying he would drop out if he fails to win Georgia.
Said Gingrich: “Given the chaos of this race, I’m not willing to say anything. I think it’s extraordinarily important to win your home state.”
A new Christopher Newport University poll in Virginia shows George Allen (R) edging Tim Kaine (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 40%.
Douglas Brinkley reviews The Obamas by Jodi Kantor:
“The difference when a head of state’s spouse performs an advisory role is that both the content and its consequences resonate through a lot more than one household. And that’s the point of Jodi Kantor’s new book, The Obamas. Call it chick nonfiction, if you will; this book is not about politics,
it’s about marriage, or at least one marriage, and a notably successful
one at that.”
Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by eight points nationally in the Gallup tracking poll, 36% to 28%, with Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 11%.
The payroll tax extension that Congress passed last week “accelerated the timeline for another battle over the debt ceiling,” The Hill reports.
“The debt-ceiling agreement lawmakers approved in August established a cooling-off period, with enough borrowing to see the country through until after the November election. But a sequel to the debt-ceiling drama could be coming to Washington sooner than planned, thanks to the billions of dollars in deficit spending in the payroll tax agreement.”
Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, who has been floated as a possible presidential candidate for a third-party run, said that he had “no interest in public office,” reports National Journal.
Variety previews the movie Game Change, premiering on March 10, based on the best-selling book about the 2008 campaign by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin,
The authors “have a cameo, as reporters hounding Schmidt during the Republican National Convention. Schmidt is complaining about the unfair, personal media coverage of Palin in the initial days of the St. Paul convention, and even points out that he’s been asked the ‘shameful’ question of when the Alaska governor’s fluid leaked during her pregnancy. Heilemann then shoots back, ‘So when did it start leaking?'”
A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa shows President Obama trails three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups if the election were held today.
The Republican with the biggest lead: Ron Paul, who would defeat Obama by 7 percentage points, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads Obama 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%.The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%.
“Iowa is considered a swing state in the general election, critical to Obama’s re-election or victory by the Republican nominee.”
Paul Babeu (R), an Arizona county sheriff and congressional candidate — “who became the face of Arizona border security nationally after he started stridently opposing illegal immigration — threatened his Mexican ex-lover with deportation when the man refused to promise never to disclose their years-long relationship,” the Phoenix New Times reports.
Babeu told the Arizona Republic the allegations are “completely false” and that the only information mentioned in the article that’s true is “I’m gay.”
“The president has reached a new low in this country’s history of
oppressing religious freedom that we have never seen before. If he
doesn’t want to call his imposition of his values a theology that’s
fine, but it is an imposition of his values over a church who has very
clear theological reasons for opposing what the Obama administration is
forcing on them.”
— Rick Santorum, quoted by NBC News, saying President Obama preaches “some phony ideal, some phony theology.”
A prominent Republican senator tells Jon Karl that if Mitt Romney can’t win in Michigan, “the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.”
“The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.”
Mike Allen: “A tippy-top Republican, unprompted, yesterday sketched the germ of a plan for a new candidate if Rick Santorum upsets Mitt Romney in the Michigan primary on Feb. 28… Our friend handed us a printout of FEC deadlines for ballot access, with five of them circled and starred: California (March 23), Montana (March 12), New Jersey (April 2), New Mexico (March 16) and South Dakota (March 27). The point: Even after Feb. 28, it might be possible to assemble a Hail Mary candidacy that could garner enough delegates to force a CONTESTED convention (a different nuance than BROKERED, which implies that someone is in charge).”
A new Inside Michigan Politics poll shows Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum deadlocked in the Michigan GOP presidential primary with 33% each, followed by Ron Paul at 7% and Newt Gingrich at 5%.
After one night in the field, a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Santorum with a smaller lead than the 15 point lead he held last week.
This is part of our guest series from Inkwell Strategies analyzing the 2012 campaign ad war.
Rick Santorum’s new ad is a breath of fresh air in an already drawn out primary season.
In
a nominating contest filled to the brim with negative advertising,
Santorum’s “Rombo” ad is an unexpected sojourn into the comedic. The
video features a Romney look-alike firing mud from a machine gun at a
cardboard cut-out of a smiling Santorum in a welcome respite from the
usual political season fair.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) “conditionally vetoed the gay marriage bill and suggested appointing an ombudsman to address complaints of same-sex couples and strengthen New Jersey’s civil union’s law,” the Newark Star Ledger reports.
“Christie conditionally vetoed the bill six hours after it reached his desk, a day after the state Assembly gave the final legislative approval that he said he would not support.”
Jonathan Bernstein: “In most GOP caucus states, the voting is not strictly connected to delegate selection. If Santorum’s voters don’t understand the procedures, it’s very possible he could win the vote and yet pick up only a handful of delegates. Indeed, that may have already happened in caucus states he’s won, like Iowa, Colorado, and Minnesota…. It’s not impossible — though it’s very unlikely — that the popularity contest could leave Santorum as the clear, unambiguous winner, while Romney becomes the clear, unambiguous nominee. Imagine Santorum finishing with a five point edge or more in votes — even as Romney gets crowned the GOP candidate for president.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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