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GOP Still Favored to Retain Control of House

January 19, 2012 at 6:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kyle Kondik updates the House forecast at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats need to win 25 additional House seats to retake the speaker’s gavel next year. In order for them to do that, President Obama will need to win next year, and that probably won’t be enough. What Democrats really need is a poisonous, damaged Republican nominee who not only loses to Obama but causes harm down the ticket.”

“At this point, we believe that 341 of the 435 House seats are safe for the Republicans (189) or the Democrats (152), which leaves the other 94 as potentially competitive. Ultimately, if Republicans win all the seats we currently favor them to win, and Democrats win all the seats they are favored to win plus all 15 toss ups, Republicans would still hold a 233-202 edge in the House.”

Debate Night Again in South Carolina

January 19, 2012 at 5:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The five remaining Republican presidential candidates take part in yet another presidential debate tonight from 8 pm to 10 pm ET.

The debate will be televised on CNN.

Gingrich’s Ex-Wife Talks

January 18, 2012 at 8:34 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Earlier this week, Newt Gingrich’s ex-wife, Marianne Gingrich, conducted an interview with ABC News, according to the Drudge Report.

She spoke to investigative reporter Brian Ross for two hours and “her explosive revelations are set to rock the trail.”

The AP reports the interview is likely to air on Nightline Thursday night.


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Romney Parks Millions in Offshore Investments

January 18, 2012 at 5:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Although it is not apparent on his financial disclosure form, Mitt Romney has millions of dollars of his personal wealth in investment funds set up in the Cayman Islands, a notorious Caribbean tax haven,” ABC News reports.

“As the race for the Republican nomination heats up, Mitt Romney is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a shroud of secrecy around the details about his vast personal wealth, including, as ABC News has discovered, his investment in funds located offshore and his ability to pay a lower tax rate.”

Obama’s Dream Debate

January 18, 2012 at 4:19 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A Super PAC backing Newt Gingrich imagines a general election debate between Mitt Romney and President Obama in a new animated ad.

[Read more…]

South Carolina Race Tightens

January 18, 2012 at 4:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CNN/Time poll in South Carolina shows Mitt Romney slipping and Newt Gingrich gaining.

Romney leads with 33%, followed by Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at 13% and Rick Perry at 6%.

Said pollster Keating Holland: “Gingrich appears to be the only candidate with momentum as the race in South Carolina enters the final few days. Support for Romney and Santorum appears to be slipping, and Paul and Perry seem flat. Gingrich, however, has gained ground and cut Romney’s lead in half since early January.”

Obama Campaign Begins TV Ads

January 18, 2012 at 4:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama’s campaign has begun buying advertising time in a
handful of key battleground states — in Michigan, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina — making his first purchase of
television time so far this election, the New York Times reports.

“So far the purchase appears quite limited, according to someone who monitors political advertising. The ads were placed for one day only, Thursday. And the number of states where they will run could expand.”

Kansas Lawmaker Attempts to Secretly Record Meeting

January 18, 2012 at 3:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kansas state Rep. Terri Lois Gregory (R) attempted to covertly record a private conversation with state Sen. Vicki Schmidt (R) about controversial health reforms sought by Gov. Sam Brownback (R), the Topeka Capital Journal reports.

During the meeting, Schmidt noticed a small flashing light in Gregory’s satchel. It wasn’t a telephone.

Said Schmidt: “I asked her, ‘Are you recording me?’ She said, ‘Yes.’ ”

“A bipartisan contingent of legislators said Gregory violated an unwritten code of conduct among lawmakers that frowns on clandestine recording of colleagues in closed-door meetings.”

What Was Professor Gingrich Like?

January 18, 2012 at 3:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “A clutch of little-known records from what is now the University of West Georgia in Carrollton suggests the ambition and intellectual grandeur of Newt 2012 aren’t a long way from the 1970s vintage. In addition to seeking the college presidency, Mr. Gingrich was often absent as he pursued political goals. He embarked on an effort to moonlight as a paid consultant. And, it turns out, he spent little time teaching history.”

Hinchey Will Not Run Again

January 18, 2012 at 3:32 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D-NY) will not seek re-election, the Poughkeepsie Journal reports.

The 73-year-old congressman underwent a second round of surgery for colon cancer earlier this month.

Obama Considering Summers for World Bank

January 18, 2012 at 3:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama is considering nominating Lawrence Summers, his former National Economic Council director, to lead the World Bank when Robert Zoellick’s term expires later this year, Bloomberg reports.

“A nomination of Summers would bring scrutiny of his previous stints in government, both as former President Bill Clinton’s Treasury Secretary and Obama’s NEC director, as well as his tenure as the president of Harvard University.”

Felix Salmon thinks it’s a bad idea: “The only way to be an effective World Bank president is to be an effective diplomat… Summers himself is the first to admit that he’s no diplomat: he prides
himself on speaking the truth as he sees it. Which is fine if you’re
making millions of dollars advising DE Shaw on their investments. But
it’s not going to help you run the World Bank — or run anything larger
than the Treasury Department, really. Even Harvard was too much for him
to run; giving him the World Bank job would be a disaster.”

Gingrich Warns of “Dirty” Romney Campaign

January 18, 2012 at 2:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After a national poll found Newt Gingrich surging again in the GOP presidential race, Newt Gingrich warned supporters it’s going to get ugly, National Review reports.

Said Gingrich: “I fully expect the Romney campaign to be unendingly dirty and dishonest for the next four days because they’re desperate. They thought they could buy this. They’re discovering they can’t buy this.”

He added: “I think they have internal polls that show them losing.”

Romney Leads in Iowa Poll, Santorum Surging

December 31, 2011 at 7:59 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows Mitt Romney leading at 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7%.

“But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%.”

Like Father, Like Son?

December 31, 2011 at 4:40 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A reader flags this passage from Theodore H. White’s The Making of the President 1968, which was published in 1969, on Gov. George Romney, Mitt’s father:
 
“Above all, he looked like a President. Handsome, silver-haired, robust, masculine, smiling or stern, he seemed cast for the part by Hollywood’s Central Casting. Correspondents who liked him called him ‘Mr. Straight Arrow;’ those whose flesh crawled at his pieties called him ‘Mr. Square,’ or worse… He would make a forthright statement one day, then, like a man making up his mind in public, contradict it or modify it on another.”

Perry Bets on His Ground Game

December 31, 2011 at 2:59 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Perry has signed up 1,500 precinct leaders in Iowa, a source inside the campaign tells CNN. There are a total 1,774 Republican caucus precincts around the state, about 900 of which are combined.

Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul have put in similar efforts to build a ground operation for the caucuses on Tuesday.

The Perry campaign also has 470 out-of-state volunteers descending on Iowa this weekend.

Gingrich Would Consider Palin for Veep

December 31, 2011 at 2:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Newt Gingrich said he “would consider asking Sarah Palin to serve as his number two or in his Cabinet if he became president,” CBS News reports.

Said Gingrich: “She is certainly one of the people you would look at. I am a great admirer of hers and she was a remarkable reform governor of Alaska, she’s somebody who I think brings a great deal to the possibility of helping in government and that would be one of the possibilities.”

The Downfall of Moderation

December 31, 2011 at 2:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Coming next week: Rule and Ruin: The Downfall of Moderation and the Destruction of the Republican Party by Geoffrey Kabaservice.

The Biggest Poll of the Campaign Season

December 31, 2011 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll is out at 8 pm ET.

Four years ago, as recounted by Obama campaign manager David Plouffe in The Audacity to Win: “Back at the office, our press staff kept refreshing the Register website. The Register poll never, ever leaks — which is very rare with polls — nor does the paper’s staff send it out to the campaigns a few minutes before they post it on their site. Everyone gets the results at the same time. I was told later that throughout the evening hundreds of thousands of people across the country were frantically hitting refresh on their browsers to update the Des Moines Register website.”

Meanwhile, Yahoo News interviews Ann Selzer, the woman behind the poll, and notes “the outsize attention paid to the paper’s poll findings is in direct
proportion to the accuracy it has had in foreshadowing the actual caucus
results in elections past.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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