A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey is the third poll in recent days to suggest Gov. Chris Christie (R) is pretty safe for re-election in 2013.
Key findings: Christie’s approval rate is 67% to 25% and he would beat Cory Booker (D) in a gubernatorial match up by double-digits, 50% to 36%.
The narrative of surprise that they lost the election serves elements of the post-election agenda of Mitt Romney’s circle — it underscores their argument that they weren’t deceiving the press and donors — but it leaves out an important fact: A longtime Romney adviser was circulating a forecast that showed President Obama winning with “over 300” electoral votes, one person who saw them told BuzzFeed.
Alex Gage, who was not working directly for the campaign but began advising Romney in 2002, “emailed a “best case” scenario map that had Romney winning by just two electoral votes — but losing Colorado, Iowa, and a slew of other battleground states, many of which the Romney team swore to the bitter end that they were going to win.”
Rolling Stone imagines lunch at the White House yesterday with President Obama and Mitt Romney.
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David Axelrod said he would shave his mustache if one of Joe Scarborough’s election predictions came true: That Mitt Romney would win either Pennsylvania, Michigan or Minnesota.
Obama won all three states, but USA Today reports Axelrod also said he would submit to a shave if Scarborough and co-host Mika Brzezinski raised more than $1 million for Axelrod’s charity, Citizens United for Research in Epilepsy — and they did.
The shearing will take place Dec. 7 on Morning Joe.
Disgraced former Rep. Mel Reynolds (D-IL) “said he will ask voters to focus on his congressional experience rather than his state and federal criminal record as he announced his bid today for the seat held by Jesse Jackson Jr., who has resigned,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
Reynolds held the seat from 1993 until October 1995, when a jury convicted him of several sex-related charges, including having sex with an underage volunteer campaign worker. While serving time in state prison, Reynolds also was convicted on federal financial and campaign fraud charges.
Fast Company has a fascinating graphic that shows how Twitter might have helped Obama win the election.
“Government officials may well spend New Year’s Eve crunching budget numbers rather than clinking champagne glasses,” USA Today reports.
“There’s no real incentive for the parties to reach an agreement now. Markets may want an early settlement, but, as mentioned, but the fiscal doesn’t start until Jan. 1 — more than four weeks way, a near-eternity in politics. Even after Jan. 1, elements of the fiscal cliff phase in gradually, and a new Congress could always pass legislation retroactive to the start of the year…Expect pushes for last-minute concessions.”
However, Wonk Wire notes the talks aren’t going well.
Karl Rove joked that he is no longer suicidal after the November election — he’s merely despondent, KFDI reports.
Rove acknowledged the Republican party “is splintered because of intolerant and judgmental language and an unwillingness to acknowledge differences. He said the party needs to find the right language to talk about the
issues without being judgmental or harsh, and it needs to have leaders
who can create that kind of environment.”
He also called his Crossroads group the “worst volunteer job” he’s had his entire life.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois finds that if Gov. Pat Quinn (D) is the Democratic nominee for governor in 2014 Democrats may have a hard time holding onto the office. His approval rate is a deadly 25% to 64%.
But Quinn may never make it to the general election. In a hypothetical primary match up against Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D), Quinn trails by 64% to 20%. Against Bill Daley (D), Quinn trails 37% to 34%.
For the first time, a new CBS News poll finds as many Americans now think marijuana use should be legal as think it should not, 47% to 47%.
“This shift in public opinion was seen at the ballot box this month, when Colorado and Washington became the first states in the nation to approve of recreational marijuana use among adults over the age of 21. Marijuana use of any kind, however, is still illegal under federal law. It’s unclear at this point how the Obama administration intends to respond.”
The public forum of campaign managers to recap the 2012 presidential election at Harvard last night was canceled due to a major power outage, the Boston Globe reports.
However, I attended the off-the-record sessions on Wednesday and Thursday and will have quite a bit to report once I’m allowed.
The New Republic obtained the final internal polling numbers from Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign for six key states, along with
additional breakdowns of the data, which were prepared by the
campaign’s chief pollster, Neil Newhouse.
“The first thing you notice is that New Hampshire and Colorado are pretty
far off the mark. In New Hampshire, the final internal polling average
has Romney up 3.5 points, whereas he lost by 5.6. In Colorado, the final
internal polling average has Romney up 2.5 points; he lost by 5.4… The Iowa number is also questionable, showing the
race tied even though Romney ended up losing by almost 6 points.”
“Together, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa go most of the way toward
explaining why the Romney campaign believed it was so well-positioned. When combined with North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia–the trio of
states the Romney campaign assumed were largely in the bag–Romney would
bank 267 electoral votes, only three shy of the magic number.”
As Susan Rice comes under increasing fire, the New York Times reports congressional Republicans appear to be coalescing around a familiar name as an alternative candidate for Secretary of State: their current colleague and former presidential foe, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA).
“Gone are the criticisms of Mr. Kerry as a waffler who tried to have it both ways on the Iraq war and the caricature of him as a windsurfing symbol of privileged East Coast liberalism. Instead, Mr. Kerry, a Democrat, is depicted as a deeply knowledgeable statesman who would breeze through confirmation on his way to Foggy Bottom.”
Texas Sen.-elect Ted Cruz (R-TX) advised the Republican Party to rebrand itself under a banner of “Opportunity Conservatism” during a sweeping speech that will only stoke speculation about a 2016 presidential run, Politico reports.
Said Cruz: “Why did we lose? It wasn’t as the media would tell you: because the American people embraced big government, Barack Obama’s spending and debt and taxes… That wasn’t what happened. I’m going to suggest to you a very simple reason why we lost the election: We didn’t win the argument. We didn’t even make the argument.”
First Read: “We’ve seen plenty of new senators come in with plenty of hype and
attention (Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Marco Rubio), but those worked
hard to keep expectations down. This is something else entirely.”
The Economist: “By cynical tradition ‘abroad’ is where American presidents go to seek a legacy, after their domestic agendas have stalled. This is especially true of second-term presidents. As they lose momentum at home, the temptation is to head overseas in search of crises that only American clout can resolve.”
“At the outset of his second term, Barack Obama seems to be planning the opposite approach. Mr Obama and his team believe that his outstanding task is to secure a domestic legacy. Their fear is that foreign entanglements may threaten that goal. It may help that he secured something of a global legacy on the day he was elected four years ago amid worldwide adulation, peaking with a Nobel peace prize awarded after less than a year in office, essentially for not being George W. Bush.”
According to a statistical method that ranks candidates by ideology, Harry Enten notes New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) “simply doesn’t have that liberal allure” that Hillary Clinton or other popular Democrats mentioned as possible presidential candidates in 2016.
“If these numbers are to believed, the possible 2016 roster of candidates will position Cuomo and Warner as ideologically conservative Democrats, Biden and O’Malley as moderate Democrats, Clinton, Patrick, and Schweitzer as liberal Democrats, and Warren as a very liberal Democrat.”
The Wall Street Journal reports President Obama “made an opening bid in budget talks with Republicans that calls for a $1.6 trillion tax increase, $50 billion in infrastructure spending in 2013 and new power to raise the federal debt limit, a provocative set of demands that Republicans said represented a step backward in efforts to avoid looming tax increases and spending cuts.”
“The proposal marked an opening salvo in negotiations over the fiscal cliff and represented a particularly expansive version of the White House’s wish list, with a heavy focus on tax increases and spending proposals–including keeping in place a payroll-tax cut and extended unemployment benefits.”
“Republicans haven’t put any comparable offer on the table.”
Rep. Chris Gibson (R-NY) “came up with what might be the most creative excuse yet” for breaking his pledge not to raise taxes, Politicker reports.
Gibson says “his district number changed from 19 to 20 during this year’s redistricting process and he reasoned that the pledge no longer applies to him as it was only to the constituents under the previous district number.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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