Alan Abramowitz updates his presidential election forecasting model and finds “growing partisan polarization has important implications for forecasting
the outcome of the 2012 presidential election. With the American
electorate both closely and deeply divided along party lines, we can
expect another close election this year — probably closer than the 2008
election and possibly as close as the 2000 election.”

“There is only one prediction that seems very safe right now — it’s going to be a long election night.”

Mitt Romney “has repeatedly sought to distance himself from some business dealings at Bain Capital by asserting that he left the firm in February 1999, but a review of public records shows that his authority lingered for three more years as Bain repeatedly listed him on government filings as the man in charge,” the Boston Globe reports.

“Until 2002, when Romney and Bain Capital finalized a severance agreement, he remained the firm’s ‘sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer and president,’ according to SEC documents. The description was applied even to the creation of five new Bain partnerships a full three years after Romney has said he relinquished all control.”

“A new urgency has swept into President Obama’s campaign as disappointing fundraising numbers have emerged alongside the shaky economy as a major threat to his prospects for reelection,” The Hill reports.

“While the president’s aides originally maintained they wouldn’t be moving from ‘zero to 60’ when they launched their campaign in May, now, with less than four months until Election Day, it appears they’re pushing down harder on the pedal.”

“If they want more stuff from government, tell them to go vote for the other guy — more free stuff. But don’t forget, nothing is really free.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by MSNBC.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds voters agree by a 48% to 45% margin with with the U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding President Obama’s health care law, while they say 49% to 43% that the Congress should repeal it.

Meanwhile, 59% say the Supreme Court decision will not affect their vote for president, 27% say it will make them less likely to vote for President Obama, while 12% say more likely.

A new Gallup poll finds 75% of registered voters say the fact that Mitt Romney is worth more than $200 million makes no difference to their likelihood of voting for him. However, 20% of voters, mostly Democrats and independents, say Romney’s wealth makes them less likely to vote for him, while 4% say it makes them more likely.

Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) was declared the Democratic primary winner in New York’s 13th District — seemingly surviving the most serious reelection threat of his 42-year career — but now Politico reports it’s not so clear.

“It’s a bizarre situation that just keeps getting weirder, a strange case of missing precincts, questionable ballots and utter confusion over who’s to blame for the mess and when the race might be settled.”

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of recent college graduates finds them supporting President Obama over Mitt Romney, 52% to 27%.

Interestingly, 58% said they have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of interest in the upcoming presidential election. That compares with 62% who went to the polls four years ago.